Vermont
America East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.4#237
Expected Predictive Rating-3.5#225
Pace60.4#353
Improvement-0.4#214

Offense
Total Offense-5.8#326
First Shot-3.1#268
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#324
Layup/Dunks-4.5#331
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#218
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#103
Freethrows-0.1#177
Improvement+0.7#150

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#133
First Shot+0.8#148
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#125
Layups/Dunks-1.9#257
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#199
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#51
Freethrows-0.6#232
Improvement-1.2#255
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.0% 12.7% 7.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 71.2% 75.8% 40.6%
.500 or above in Conference 97.0% 98.6% 86.4%
Conference Champion 4.9% 5.5% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.0% 6.1% 5.2%
First Round9.2% 9.9% 4.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Hampshire (Home) - 87.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 33 - 43 - 7
Quad 413 - 816 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 102   @ UAB W 67-62 15%     1 - 0 +11.8 +0.4 +12.0
  Nov 06, 2024 1   @ Auburn L 43-94 1%     1 - 1 -25.3 -20.2 -5.4
  Nov 09, 2024 195   @ Merrimack L 51-65 31%     1 - 2 -13.3 -12.2 -2.5
  Nov 15, 2024 252   @ Iona L 59-62 43%     1 - 3 -5.6 -9.8 +4.0
  Nov 19, 2024 339   Buffalo W 78-67 82%     2 - 3 -3.1 +5.7 -7.9
  Nov 23, 2024 234   Delaware W 75-71 49%     3 - 3 -0.1 -1.1 +1.0
  Nov 24, 2024 326   Fairfield L 66-67 71%     3 - 4 -11.2 -5.9 -5.4
  Nov 30, 2024 208   Northeastern W 68-64 52%     4 - 4 -0.9 -5.3 +4.5
  Dec 03, 2024 217   Brown L 53-60 54%     4 - 5 -12.5 -10.2 -4.0
  Dec 07, 2024 64   @ Yale L 50-65 8%     4 - 6 -3.9 -13.2 +7.6
  Dec 15, 2024 232   @ Colgate L 60-65 39%     4 - 7 -6.4 -7.7 +0.7
  Dec 18, 2024 150   Miami (OH) W 75-67 40%     5 - 7 +6.2 +1.4 +4.9
  Dec 21, 2024 243   @ Dartmouth L 54-84 42%     5 - 8 -32.2 -16.6 -16.8
  Jan 04, 2025 354   @ New Hampshire W 60-40 73%     6 - 8 1 - 0 +9.1 -8.7 +20.6
  Jan 09, 2025 218   @ Umass Lowell W 67-63 36%     7 - 8 2 - 0 +3.4 -4.1 +7.6
  Jan 11, 2025 159   @ Bryant L 53-73 24%     7 - 9 2 - 1 -17.1 -11.9 -7.8
  Jan 16, 2025 302   Binghamton W 72-64 73%     8 - 9 3 - 1 -2.6 +4.7 -6.1
  Jan 23, 2025 344   NJIT W 68-64 83%     9 - 9 4 - 1 -10.6 -8.6 -2.0
  Jan 25, 2025 281   Maryland Baltimore Co. L 63-80 68%     9 - 10 4 - 2 -26.2 -12.1 -15.5
  Jan 30, 2025 302   @ Binghamton L 72-75 55%     9 - 11 4 - 3 -8.7 -1.3 -7.4
  Feb 01, 2025 191   Maine W 55-49 49%     10 - 11 5 - 3 +1.8 -7.1 +10.0
  Feb 08, 2025 276   @ Albany W 68-62 48%     11 - 11 6 - 3 +2.1 +5.2 -2.0
  Feb 13, 2025 354   New Hampshire W 69-58 87%    
  Feb 15, 2025 191   @ Maine L 58-63 31%    
  Feb 20, 2025 159   Bryant L 69-71 43%    
  Feb 22, 2025 218   Umass Lowell W 69-68 56%    
  Feb 27, 2025 344   @ NJIT W 63-58 67%    
  Mar 01, 2025 281   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 70-71 48%    
  Mar 04, 2025 276   Albany W 67-63 68%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.8 1.8 4.9 1st
2nd 0.3 3.4 10.1 7.0 0.4 21.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.1 16.6 25.1 12.8 1.1 58.8 3rd
4th 0.8 5.7 4.9 0.8 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.5 0.9 0.0 2.4 5th
6th 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.3 2.7 9.7 21.8 29.3 23.2 10.9 2.2 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 82.3% 1.8    0.7 1.0 0.1
12-4 25.8% 2.8    0.2 1.6 1.0
11-5 1.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.2
10-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 4.9% 4.9 0.9 2.6 1.4



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 2.2% 22.8% 22.8% 14.7 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.7
12-4 10.9% 19.1% 19.1% 15.5 0.1 0.9 1.1 8.8
11-5 23.2% 14.6% 14.6% 15.8 0.0 0.5 2.9 19.8
10-6 29.3% 11.4% 11.4% 16.0 0.2 3.2 26.0
9-7 21.8% 9.1% 9.1% 16.0 0.1 1.9 19.8
8-8 9.7% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.5 9.1
7-9 2.7% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.1 2.6
6-10 0.3% 0.3
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 12.0% 12.0% 0.0% 15.8 0.3 2.0 9.8 88.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 14.7 36.7 59.2 4.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%
Lose Out 0.2%