St. Bonaventure
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.1#88
Expected Predictive Rating+10.9#54
Pace64.5#302
Improvement+1.5#84

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#120
First Shot+0.9#151
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#116
Layup/Dunks+3.5#69
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#136
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#238
Freethrows-1.2#254
Improvement-0.4#220

Defense
Total Defense+4.1#74
First Shot+4.8#49
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#233
Layups/Dunks+3.8#65
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#236
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#236
Freethrows+2.8#34
Improvement+1.9#43
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.4% 10.5% 6.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.8% 1.9% 0.3%
Average Seed 11.1 11.1 11.6
.500 or above 98.1% 98.4% 92.6%
.500 or above in Conference 83.0% 83.4% 70.5%
Conference Champion 11.1% 11.3% 5.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.8% 1.5%
First Four1.0% 1.1% 0.2%
First Round9.8% 10.0% 6.4%
Second Round2.8% 2.9% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.7% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Buffalo (Home) - 96.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 23 - 44 - 6
Quad 38 - 311 - 9
Quad 411 - 122 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 155   Cal St. Northridge W 70-56 80%     1 - 0 +11.3 -8.6 +18.8
  Nov 09, 2024 345   @ Canisius W 87-78 92%     2 - 0 -0.2 +19.0 -18.1
  Nov 13, 2024 188   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 74-65 67%     3 - 0 +10.7 +3.8 +7.1
  Nov 16, 2024 334   Le Moyne W 71-52 95%     4 - 0 +6.0 -1.1 +8.8
  Nov 24, 2024 176   Bryant W 85-70 83%     5 - 0 +11.2 +9.8 +1.3
  Nov 28, 2024 52   Utah St. L 67-72 36%     5 - 1 +4.7 -0.1 +4.7
  Nov 29, 2024 113   Northern Iowa W 68-56 61%     6 - 1 +15.4 +4.8 +12.0
  Dec 04, 2024 260   @ Bucknell W 64-47 80%     7 - 1 +14.4 -2.2 +18.0
  Dec 07, 2024 331   Buffalo W 80-61 96%    
  Dec 14, 2024 79   Providence L 64-65 46%    
  Dec 17, 2024 302   @ Siena W 70-60 84%    
  Dec 21, 2024 308   Niagara W 75-58 94%    
  Dec 31, 2024 55   Virginia Commonwealth L 65-66 48%    
  Jan 04, 2025 201   @ Fordham W 71-66 68%    
  Jan 08, 2025 137   @ Saint Louis W 74-72 56%    
  Jan 11, 2025 143   La Salle W 76-68 77%    
  Jan 15, 2025 186   Richmond W 71-61 82%    
  Jan 18, 2025 208   @ Duquesne W 68-63 69%    
  Jan 21, 2025 82   George Mason W 67-64 59%    
  Jan 24, 2025 55   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 63-69 28%    
  Jan 28, 2025 46   Dayton L 69-70 45%    
  Feb 01, 2025 201   Fordham W 74-63 84%    
  Feb 04, 2025 86   @ Loyola Chicago L 67-70 40%    
  Feb 09, 2025 151   George Washington W 76-67 78%    
  Feb 12, 2025 91   @ Rhode Island L 72-75 40%    
  Feb 15, 2025 171   @ Massachusetts W 72-68 63%    
  Feb 22, 2025 208   Duquesne W 71-60 85%    
  Feb 26, 2025 101   @ Saint Joseph's L 68-70 43%    
  Mar 05, 2025 171   Massachusetts W 75-65 81%    
  Mar 08, 2025 134   @ Davidson W 71-69 56%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.0 3.0 3.5 2.4 0.9 0.2 11.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.4 4.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 12.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 5.1 4.9 1.4 0.1 0.0 12.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.6 5.4 1.6 0.1 12.5 4th
5th 0.3 3.3 5.6 2.1 0.2 11.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 5.3 2.8 0.2 10.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.0 3.2 0.4 0.0 8.4 7th
8th 0.3 2.2 3.4 0.7 0.0 6.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 2.9 1.0 0.0 5.1 9th
10th 0.3 1.7 1.4 0.1 3.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.3 2.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.8 7.6 10.9 13.3 14.7 14.6 11.9 8.6 5.2 2.7 0.9 0.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 98.3% 0.9    0.9 0.0
16-2 91.6% 2.4    1.9 0.5 0.0
15-3 68.1% 3.5    2.0 1.3 0.3 0.0
14-4 34.9% 3.0    1.0 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.0% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.1% 11.1 6.0 3.4 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 89.3% 45.2% 44.0% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 80.4%
17-1 0.9% 66.9% 27.1% 39.8% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 54.6%
16-2 2.7% 44.5% 25.8% 18.7% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.5 25.2%
15-3 5.2% 30.8% 22.1% 8.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 0.3 3.6 11.2%
14-4 8.6% 20.4% 18.1% 2.3% 11.3 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.6 6.9 2.9%
13-5 11.9% 13.9% 13.5% 0.4% 11.5 0.0 0.7 0.9 0.0 10.3 0.5%
12-6 14.6% 10.7% 10.6% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.1 13.1 0.1%
11-7 14.7% 5.9% 5.9% 11.9 0.2 0.6 0.1 13.8
10-8 13.3% 4.1% 4.1% 12.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 12.8
9-9 10.9% 2.6% 2.6% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 10.6
8-10 7.6% 1.6% 1.6% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.5
7-11 4.8% 0.7% 0.7% 12.4 0.0 0.0 4.7
6-12 2.6% 0.6% 0.6% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6
5-13 1.3% 0.3% 0.3% 13.0 0.0 1.3
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 10.4% 8.7% 1.7% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.7 4.3 4.2 0.3 0.0 89.6 1.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.0 17.4 26.1 17.4 21.7 17.4