Preseason Rankings
Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.8#110
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.6#297
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#121
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.3#106
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.8% 16.6% 8.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.8% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.7 11.6 12.4
.500 or above 74.8% 80.2% 56.3%
.500 or above in Conference 74.3% 77.8% 62.0%
Conference Champion 18.2% 20.5% 10.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.8% 2.0% 5.2%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
First Round14.7% 16.4% 8.6%
Second Round3.0% 3.5% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Northridge (Home) - 77.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 42 - 5
Quad 38 - 510 - 11
Quad 49 - 219 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2025 176   Cal St. Northridge W 77-69 77%    
  Nov 09, 2025 151   South Dakota St. W 74-67 72%    
  Nov 14, 2025 133   Furman W 70-65 67%    
  Nov 18, 2025 316   Northern Illinois W 78-62 92%    
  Nov 22, 2025 93   @ UC Irvine L 65-70 34%    
  Nov 25, 2025 103   Loyola Chicago L 66-67 47%    
  Dec 06, 2025 122   Wichita St. W 72-67 65%    
  Dec 13, 2025 197   Oakland W 70-61 78%    
  Dec 17, 2025 154   @ Illinois-Chicago W 70-69 52%    
  Dec 22, 2025 49   @ St. Mary's L 56-66 19%    
  Dec 29, 2025 261   Valparaiso W 75-63 85%    
  Jan 01, 2026 170   Indiana St. W 79-71 75%    
  Jan 04, 2026 241   @ Evansville W 68-63 67%    
  Jan 07, 2026 112   Belmont W 74-71 61%    
  Jan 10, 2026 107   @ Bradley L 65-68 39%    
  Jan 13, 2026 154   Illinois-Chicago W 73-66 71%    
  Jan 17, 2026 261   @ Valparaiso W 72-66 69%    
  Jan 21, 2026 109   @ Illinois St. L 67-70 40%    
  Jan 24, 2026 127   Murray St. W 68-63 66%    
  Jan 28, 2026 141   @ Southern Illinois L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 31, 2026 241   Evansville W 71-60 82%    
  Feb 06, 2026 107   Bradley W 68-65 58%    
  Feb 09, 2026 127   @ Murray St. L 65-66 46%    
  Feb 12, 2026 112   @ Belmont L 71-74 41%    
  Feb 15, 2026 114   Drake W 60-57 61%    
  Feb 18, 2026 170   @ Indiana St. W 76-74 56%    
  Feb 21, 2026 141   Southern Illinois W 71-65 68%    
  Feb 25, 2026 109   Illinois St. W 70-67 59%    
  Mar 01, 2026 114   @ Drake L 57-60 42%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.3 4.5 4.0 3.0 1.2 0.4 18.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 2.8 4.9 4.2 2.0 0.5 0.1 15.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.1 4.7 3.3 0.9 0.1 12.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.2 4.7 2.5 0.5 0.0 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.9 4.1 2.0 0.3 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.8 3.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.3 3.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 2.0 2.6 1.1 0.1 6.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.7 0.6 0.1 4.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.0 3.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.6 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.1 4.8 6.2 7.7 8.8 9.8 10.6 10.5 10.3 8.4 6.7 4.6 3.0 1.2 0.4 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
18-2 98.1% 3.0    2.8 0.2
17-3 88.0% 4.0    3.3 0.7 0.0
16-4 68.0% 4.5    2.8 1.5 0.2 0.0
15-5 39.6% 3.3    1.6 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0
14-6 14.7% 1.5    0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 18.2% 18.2 12.4 4.5 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 87.6% 69.6% 18.0% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 59.3%
19-1 1.2% 60.8% 45.2% 15.6% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 28.5%
18-2 3.0% 51.3% 46.4% 4.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.5 9.1%
17-3 4.6% 39.3% 37.3% 2.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.8 3.3%
16-4 6.7% 32.2% 31.8% 0.4% 11.5 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.5 0.6%
15-5 8.4% 27.1% 27.1% 0.0% 11.9 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 6.1 0.1%
14-6 10.3% 19.7% 19.7% 12.1 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.5 0.1 8.3
13-7 10.5% 14.2% 14.2% 12.5 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 9.0
12-8 10.6% 10.6% 10.6% 12.7 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 9.5
11-9 9.8% 6.8% 6.8% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 9.1
10-10 8.8% 3.9% 3.9% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.5
9-11 7.7% 2.8% 2.8% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.5
8-12 6.2% 1.3% 1.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1
7-13 4.8% 0.7% 0.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 4.8
6-14 3.1% 0.5% 0.5% 20.0 0.0 3.1
5-15 2.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.0
4-16 1.1% 1.1
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.8% 14.3% 0.5% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 4.5 5.3 2.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 85.2 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.7 7.7 15.5 30.8 38.5 7.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 98.8% 5.0 49.4 49.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 74.8% 7.0 25.2 24.5 25.2
Lose Out 0.0%