Oregon
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.3#22
Expected Predictive Rating+24.9#2
Pace68.2#204
Improvement+1.7#74

Offense
Total Offense+7.5#28
First Shot+8.2#17
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#219
Layup/Dunks+5.1#39
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#272
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#158
Freethrows+4.5#14
Improvement+0.3#156

Defense
Total Defense+6.8#24
First Shot+8.1#11
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#266
Layups/Dunks+4.8#48
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#193
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#171
Freethrows+3.0#30
Improvement+1.5#61
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.1% 1.5% 0.5%
#1 Seed 6.3% 8.4% 3.2%
Top 2 Seed 18.4% 23.5% 10.8%
Top 4 Seed 49.3% 57.7% 37.0%
Top 6 Seed 74.4% 81.2% 64.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 96.0% 98.0% 93.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 95.5% 97.7% 92.5%
Average Seed 4.8 4.3 5.5
.500 or above 99.4% 99.8% 98.8%
.500 or above in Conference 85.1% 91.1% 76.2%
Conference Champion 15.9% 21.8% 7.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four2.4% 1.4% 3.9%
First Round94.6% 97.2% 90.8%
Second Round71.3% 76.0% 64.3%
Sweet Sixteen36.5% 40.6% 30.6%
Elite Eight16.0% 18.5% 12.2%
Final Four6.8% 8.0% 4.9%
Championship Game2.8% 3.4% 1.9%
National Champion1.1% 1.4% 0.8%

Next Game: UCLA (Home) - 59.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 44 - 4
Quad 1b5 - 29 - 7
Quad 27 - 216 - 8
Quad 34 - 020 - 9
Quad 44 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 175   UC Riverside W 91-76 94%     1 - 0 +11.2 +15.5 -4.5
  Nov 08, 2024 190   Montana W 79-48 95%     2 - 0 +26.7 +9.9 +19.1
  Nov 12, 2024 309   Portland W 80-70 OT 98%     3 - 0 -0.6 -7.6 +5.7
  Nov 17, 2024 125   Troy W 82-61 91%     4 - 0 +20.1 +4.7 +14.3
  Nov 21, 2024 76   @ Oregon St. W 78-75 65%     5 - 0 +13.4 +14.5 -1.0
  Nov 26, 2024 30   Texas A&M W 80-70 55%     6 - 0 +23.0 +15.9 +7.3
  Nov 27, 2024 37   San Diego St. W 78-68 59%     7 - 0 +22.1 +16.3 +6.2
  Nov 30, 2024 5   Alabama W 83-81 34%     8 - 0 +20.5 +12.0 +8.3
  Dec 04, 2024 106   @ USC W 68-60 76%     9 - 0 1 - 0 +15.1 +0.2 +15.1
  Dec 08, 2024 18   UCLA W 69-66 60%    
  Dec 15, 2024 197   Stephen F. Austin W 75-56 96%    
  Dec 21, 2024 93   Stanford W 78-69 79%    
  Dec 29, 2024 210   Weber St. W 81-61 97%    
  Jan 02, 2025 14   Illinois W 76-74 58%    
  Jan 05, 2025 19   Maryland W 75-72 60%    
  Jan 09, 2025 29   @ Ohio St. L 72-74 44%    
  Jan 12, 2025 31   @ Penn St. L 75-77 44%    
  Jan 18, 2025 21   Purdue W 73-70 60%    
  Jan 21, 2025 75   Washington W 78-68 81%    
  Jan 25, 2025 112   @ Minnesota W 69-61 76%    
  Jan 30, 2025 18   @ UCLA L 66-69 39%    
  Feb 02, 2025 44   Nebraska W 76-70 71%    
  Feb 05, 2025 16   @ Michigan L 69-73 37%    
  Feb 08, 2025 27   @ Michigan St. L 70-72 42%    
  Feb 11, 2025 66   Northwestern W 71-63 78%    
  Feb 16, 2025 58   Rutgers W 78-70 75%    
  Feb 19, 2025 50   @ Iowa W 79-78 54%    
  Feb 22, 2025 35   @ Wisconsin L 73-74 46%    
  Mar 01, 2025 106   USC W 79-66 88%    
  Mar 04, 2025 39   Indiana W 77-72 69%    
  Mar 09, 2025 75   @ Washington W 75-71 63%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 3.7 5.0 3.6 1.7 0.5 0.1 15.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 4.3 4.7 2.0 0.4 0.0 12.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.7 4.7 1.7 0.2 10.7 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 5.2 2.1 0.2 0.0 9.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.2 3.2 0.4 0.0 8.5 5th
6th 0.1 2.3 4.3 1.0 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.0 1.9 0.1 6.7 7th
8th 0.1 2.1 2.9 0.4 0.0 5.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.2 1.4 0.0 5.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.8 2.3 0.2 0.0 4.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 2.3 0.9 0.0 3.9 11th
12th 0.2 1.3 1.4 0.1 3.0 12th
13th 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.0 1.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.3 4.2 6.7 9.4 11.6 13.3 14.4 12.6 10.2 7.2 3.9 1.7 0.5 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 98.8% 1.7    1.6 0.1
17-3 90.6% 3.6    2.9 0.6 0.0
16-4 69.7% 5.0    2.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
15-5 35.8% 3.7    1.2 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 9.1% 1.1    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 15.9% 15.9 9.3 4.3 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 24.3% 75.7% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.5% 100.0% 35.8% 64.2% 1.2 0.4 0.1 100.0%
18-2 1.7% 100.0% 31.3% 68.8% 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.9% 100.0% 25.8% 74.2% 1.7 1.7 1.8 0.4 0.0 100.0%
16-4 7.2% 100.0% 20.1% 79.9% 2.1 1.7 3.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-5 10.2% 100.0% 18.2% 81.8% 2.7 0.9 3.4 4.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-6 12.6% 100.0% 13.2% 86.8% 3.4 0.4 1.9 4.6 3.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-7 14.4% 100.0% 9.4% 90.6% 4.2 0.1 0.7 3.3 4.8 3.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
12-8 13.3% 100.0% 5.9% 94.1% 5.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.1 4.3 3.0 1.2 0.3 0.1 100.0%
11-9 11.6% 99.8% 3.1% 96.7% 5.9 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.9 3.6 2.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-10 9.4% 99.0% 2.1% 96.9% 7.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.3 2.3 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 98.9%
9-11 6.7% 94.5% 1.4% 93.2% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.5 1.8 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.4 94.5%
8-12 4.2% 80.6% 0.4% 80.2% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.1 0.8 80.5%
7-13 2.3% 49.4% 0.1% 49.4% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.1 1.2 49.4%
6-14 1.1% 17.7% 17.7% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.9 17.7%
5-15 0.5% 2.2% 2.2% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.2%
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 96.0% 9.6% 86.4% 4.8 6.3 12.1 15.8 15.2 13.9 11.2 7.1 4.9 4.0 2.9 2.3 0.2 4.0 95.5%