Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
127 St. Thomas 35.9%   14   14 - 5 6 - 1 +2.0      +1.7 123 +0.3 156 70.1 148 +3.5 113 +5.6 2
134 North Dakota St. 34.9%   15 - 5 8 - 0 +1.5      +1.4 131 +0.1 163 65.5 275 +3.5 114 +10.0 1
171 South Dakota St. 16.7%   7 - 11 3 - 3 -0.9      +0.2 156 -1.1 212 70.3 137 -4.5 232 -5.1 4
250 Nebraska Omaha 5.1%   6 - 12 3 - 4 -4.9      -2.3 229 -2.7 259 68.5 189 -7.2 278 -10.0 6
284 Denver 2.1%   6 - 13 2 - 5 -7.3      +2.6 106 -9.9 364 70.1 147 -6.5 270 -12.6 7
287 South Dakota 2.3%   8 - 11 3 - 4 -7.3      -1.4 207 -5.9 336 76.9 23 -6.1 260 -5.2 5
290 North Dakota 2.6%   9 - 12 6 - 2 -7.4      -2.0 221 -5.4 328 70.2 140 -5.8 252 -0.1 3
332 Oral Roberts 0.4%   2 - 17 0 - 7 -10.6      -5.8 320 -4.9 316 68.1 203 -12.9 343 -20.4 9
354 UMKC 0.1%   1 - 17 1 - 6 -13.7      -8.5 354 -5.2 324 71.5 110 -17.9 356 -14.3 8


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Jan 24 284 Denver 86 290 North Dakota 93   
Sat, Jan 24 287 South Dakota 78 127 St. Thomas 90   
Sat, Jan 24 354 UMKC 60 250 Nebraska Omaha 77   
Sat, Jan 24 134 North Dakota St. 86 332 Oral Roberts 58   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Jan 28 250 Nebraska Omaha 75 171 South Dakota St. 76 54%   
Wed, Jan 28 284 Denver 83 354 UMKC 79 63%   
Thu, Jan 29 290 North Dakota 72 127 St. Thomas 84 87%   
Thu, Jan 29 332 Oral Roberts 76 287 South Dakota 83 73%   
Sat, Jan 31 284 Denver 82 250 Nebraska Omaha 81 53%   
Sat, Jan 31 134 North Dakota St. 82 287 South Dakota 76 71%   
Sat, Jan 31 332 Oral Roberts 68 171 South Dakota St. 81 88%   
Sun, Feb 1 354 UMKC 66 127 St. Thomas 85 95%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
St. Thomas 1.6 44.6 49.7 4.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
North Dakota St. 1.3 74.0 24.1 1.6 0.2 0.0
South Dakota St. 3.3 2.2 12.7 54.5 19.3 7.5 3.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
Nebraska Omaha 5.3 0.0 0.8 8.0 17.5 29.8 26.5 15.2 2.2 0.1
Denver 6.3 0.1 2.1 6.7 16.2 25.3 37.4 10.4 1.9
South Dakota 5.2 0.0 0.5 10.4 18.7 29.4 26.9 11.4 2.4 0.3
North Dakota 3.8 0.7 4.4 32.2 42.5 14.9 4.7 0.6 0.0
Oral Roberts 8.1 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.7 14.7 41.1 38.0
UMKC 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.4 14.4 41.8 39.4

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
St. Thomas 13 - 3 21 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.0 9.8 20.3 30.1 25.6 10.6
North Dakota St. 14 - 2 21 - 7 0.1 0.6 3.4 11.1 23.9 32.0 22.1 6.8
South Dakota St. 10 - 6 14 - 14 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 4.9 11.4 19.6 24.6 21.5 12.4 3.5
Nebraska Omaha 7 - 9 10 - 17 0.5 3.7 11.2 20.0 24.9 21.2 12.4 4.8 1.1 0.1
Denver 6 - 10 10 - 18 1.1 6.0 14.2 22.8 24.1 18.1 9.4 3.4 0.7 0.0
South Dakota 7 - 9 12 - 16 0.5 3.4 9.7 19.1 23.9 21.8 14.1 5.7 1.6 0.2
North Dakota 9 - 7 12 - 17 1.6 9.9 23.2 29.7 22.5 9.9 2.9 0.4 0.0
Oral Roberts 3 - 13 5 - 23 2.3 10.3 22.1 27.5 21.0 11.8 4.2 0.8 0.1
UMKC 3 - 13 3 - 24 9.7 25.2 29.0 21.4 10.3 3.5 0.9 0.1

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
St. Thomas 44.6% 25.0 18.6 1.0 0.0
North Dakota St. 74.0% 54.2 18.8 1.0 0.0
South Dakota St. 2.2% 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.0
Nebraska Omaha 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Denver
South Dakota 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
North Dakota 0.7% 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
Oral Roberts
UMKC


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
St. Thomas 35.9% 35.9% 0.0% 14   0.2 4.1 14.1 14.0 3.5 0.1 64.1 0.0%
North Dakota St. 34.9% 34.9% 0.0% 0.1 2.9 12.2 15.6 4.0 0.1 65.1 0.0%
South Dakota St. 16.7% 16.7% 0.0% 0.2 1.3 3.7 6.8 4.7 83.3 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 4.4 94.9 0.0%
Denver 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.1 1.9 98.0 0.0%
South Dakota 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.9 97.7 0.0%
North Dakota 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.2 2.4 97.4 0.0%
Oral Roberts 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%
UMKC 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 95.3% 1.0 4.7 95.3
2nd Round 3.7% 0.0 96.3 3.7
Sweet Sixteen 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
St. Thomas 35.9% 0.0% 35.9% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota St. 34.9% 0.0% 34.9% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota St. 16.7% 2.0% 16.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 5.1% 3.6% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Denver 2.1% 1.7% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota 2.3% 1.4% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota 2.6% 1.8% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oral Roberts 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UMKC 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%