South Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.9 #171
Expected Predictive Rating -4.5 #232
Pace 70.3 #137
Improvement -0.9 #225

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #156 C+ C C D+ C+
Defense #212 C- C C C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #115 1.19 #145 +2.0 #108
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #216 0.79 #124 -0.5 #203
Three Pointers 41% #186 1.02 #185 -0.1 #184
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #138 +1.4 #137
Freethrows 0.29 #237 69% #296 0.20 #257
Second Chance 30.6% #186 1.04 #197 0.32 #180
Turnovers 16.4% #179
Total Offense +0.2 #156

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #296 1.20 #247 +1.5 #122
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #275 0.81 #271 +0.9 #125
Three Pointers 48% #26 1.00 #165 -3.2 #310
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #210 -0.8 #203
Freethrows 0.30 #178 74% #285 0.22 #205
Second Chance 29.0% #119 1.11 #272 0.32 #189
Turnovers 16.1% #205
Total Defense -1.1 #212

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #126 0.2% #180
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.7% #149 1.8% #217
Possession Length 17.5 #183 17.2 #156
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #160 0.17 #173
Improvement +1.2 #120 -2.1 #305

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.7% 18.8% 14.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.6 15.3
.500 or above 57.4% 71.2% 41.1%
.500 or above in Conference 93.0% 97.5% 87.7%
Conference Champion 2.2% 3.7% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.0% 1.0% 3.1%
First Round16.0% 18.5% 13.0%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nebraska Omaha (Away) - 54.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 52 - 10
Quad 413 - 515 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 205 Merrimack W 75 - 66 57% +2  1 - 0 +6 +2 C+ C- D +4 A- B+ C
 Sun, Nov 9 108 @Northern Iowa L 58 - 65 23% -4  1 - 1 -0 -1 B- B F +0 D A- B+
 Wed, Nov 12 72 @Oregon L 69 - 83 14% -5  1 - 2 -3 +1 C C- C+ -4 D+ B- D-
 Fri, Nov 21 269 Georgia St. W 105 - 58 78% +28  2 - 2 +38 +28 A+ D B +9 B A+ C-
 Tue, Nov 25 109 Utah Valley L 52 - 75 32% -10  2 - 3 -19 -18 F D F -1 B- D- A-
 Wed, Nov 26 119 UC Irvine L 52 - 64 36% -7  2 - 4 -9 -18 F F+ D- +9 B- A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 313 @Northern Arizona W 75 - 62 69% +6  3 - 4 +7 -1 F+ C C+ +8 A- C+ B-
 Sat, Dec 6 189 Idaho L 81 - 84 65% +1  3 - 5 -8 +6 C D- A+ -14 F+ C+ D
 Tue, Dec 9 294 @Ball St. W 68 - 64 64% +0  4 - 5 -1 +1 C+ C- C -1 B D- F+
 Mon, Dec 15 110 Wyoming L 72 - 87 33% -13  4 - 6 -11 +4 C C A+ -16 F F C+
 Fri, Dec 19 244 Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 87 - 88 64% -1  4 - 7 -6 +13 B+ B B -18 F D- C
 Mon, Dec 29 2 @Arizona L 71 - 99 1% -16  4 - 8 -1 +4 B- A C -3 C D- A
 Thu, Jan 1 250 Nebraska Omaha W 84 - 69 75% +6  5 - 8 1 - 0 +7 +7 C- A+ C- +0 A- A F
 Sat, Jan 3 290 @North Dakota L 87 - 90 OT 63% -1  5 - 9 1 - 1 -7 +11 C B+ B- -18 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 8 284 Denver W 87 - 79 81% +1  6 - 9 2 - 1 -2 +3 D+ B C -6 B- C D-
 Wed, Jan 14 134 @North Dakota St. L 65 - 76 30% -8  6 - 10 2 - 2 -6 -1 C+ F B -7 F A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 17 354 UMKC W 90 - 62 92% +6  7 - 10 3 - 2 +11 +17 A+ C B+ -4 B- F D
 Thu, Jan 22 127 @St. Thomas L 69 - 74 28% +1  7 - 11 3 - 3 -0 -2 C D- C +2 C+ D A
 Wed, Jan 28 250 @Nebraska Omaha W 76 - 75 54%
 Sat, Jan 31 332 Oral Roberts W 81 - 68 89%
 Wed, Feb 4 127 St. Thomas W 77 - 76 51%
 Sat, Feb 7 287 South Dakota W 87 - 78 82%
 Thu, Feb 12 284 @Denver W 84 - 81 63%
 Sat, Feb 14 332 @Oral Roberts W 78 - 71 73%
 Wed, Feb 18 134 North Dakota St. W 75 - 74 53%
 Sat, Feb 21 290 North Dakota W 82 - 73 82%
 Thu, Feb 26 354 @UMKC W 80 - 70 82%
 Sat, Feb 28 287 @South Dakota W 84 - 81 62%
Totals 14 - 14 10 - 6 -1 +0 C+ C C -1 C- C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 1.4 2.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 4.0 6.0 1.9 12.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 9.9 20.3 17.2 5.6 0.2 54.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 6.0 8.8 3.4 0.3 0.0 19.3 4th
5th 0.4 2.6 3.7 0.9 0.0 7.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.5 0.0 3.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 4.9 11.4 19.6 24.6 21.5 12.4 3.5 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 39.4% 1.4    0.3 0.7 0.4
12-4 6.3% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0
11-5 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 3.5% 36.0% 36.0% 13.2 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.2
12-4 12.4% 24.9% 24.9% 14.1 0.0 0.5 1.8 0.7 0.0 9.3
11-5 21.5% 19.4% 19.4% 14.7 0.1 1.3 2.5 0.3 17.4
10-6 24.6% 15.9% 15.9% 15.2 0.2 2.7 1.0 20.7
9-7 19.6% 12.9% 12.9% 15.7 0.7 1.8 17.1
8-8 11.4% 10.0% 10.0% 16.0 0.0 1.1 10.3
7-9 4.9% 8.3% 8.3% 16.0 0.4 4.5
6-10 1.7% 8.9% 8.9% 16.0 0.2 1.5
5-11 0.4% 0.4
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 16.7% 16.7% 0.0% 14.9 83.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 13.2 14.1 58.6 24.9 2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0%