South Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.3 #287
Expected Predictive Rating -6.1 #260
Pace 76.9 #23
Improvement -1.0 #236

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #207 C- C- D+ B+ C
Defense #336 D+ F C- C F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #66 1.08 #280 +0.8 #149
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #162 0.74 #205 +0.1 #172
Three Pointers 36% #290 1.04 #145 -2.2 #255
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #218 -1.3 #218
Freethrows 0.36 #34 76% #76 0.27 #25
Second Chance 30.8% #170 0.97 #276 0.30 #214
Turnovers 17.7% #264
Total Offense -1.4 #207

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 55% #1 1.25 #297 -11.9 #365
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #343 0.85 #312 +1.6 #70
Three Pointers 31% #363 0.93 #72 +6.5 #7
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #300 -3.7 #297
Freethrows 0.29 #154 74% #269 0.21 #165
Second Chance 34.8% #322 1.30 #362 0.45 #360
Turnovers 15.1% #258
Total Defense -5.9 #336

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.5% #160 3.8% #365
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.1% #227 3.5% #247
Possession Length 17.2 #153 16.1 #25
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #253 0.21 #309
Improvement +0.2 #172 -1.2 #255

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 2.4% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 14.9% 18.8% 4.5%
.500 or above in Conference 43.5% 52.0% 20.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.3% 3.9%
First Four1.4% 1.3% 1.4%
First Round1.7% 1.8% 1.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oral Roberts (Home) - 72.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 61 - 11
Quad 412 - 613 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 223 Utah Tech L 79 - 81 OT 48% -2  0 - 1 -9 -9 F C- D+ +1 C- A- B
 Wed, Nov 5 53 @Creighton L 76 - 92 4% -12  0 - 2 -3 +4 C+ D+ D- -7 A- F A-
 Wed, Nov 12 321 Southern Indiana W 89 - 74 70% +9  1 - 2 +2 -1 D- B+ F +1 A F C+
 Sun, Nov 16 272 Western Michigan W 83 - 78 58% -3  2 - 2 -4 +5 C- C A+ -9 F F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 54 @Missouri L 68 - 102 4% -14  2 - 3 -21 -4 D+ A- F -15 F F A
 Sun, Nov 23 359 South Carolina St. W 82 - 81 84% +8  3 - 3 -17 +0 C+ D- F -17 D F D
 Sat, Nov 29 347 Air Force W 80 - 63 68% +11  4 - 3 +5 +6 B- C- F -0 A B- D-
 Wed, Dec 3 149 Portland St. L 71 - 77 32% -5  4 - 4 -8 -5 F A F -2 C B+ D+
 Sat, Dec 6 197 @Northern Colorado L 87 - 89 OT 22% -2  4 - 5 -1 +6 B- C- F -7 F D+ C+
 Tue, Dec 9 110 @Wyoming L 79 - 106 10% -15  4 - 6 -20 +4 D+ A D -23 F F D+
 Sat, Dec 13 345 Prairie View W 97 - 85 77% +9  5 - 6 -3 +7 D+ B- B- -11 F+ F+ B
 Sat, Dec 20 88 @Kansas St. L 76 - 106 7% -22  5 - 7 -21 +2 C- D B -20 F F C-
 Wed, Dec 31 134 @North Dakota St. L 61 - 84 14% -10  5 - 8 0 - 1 -18 -4 D D F -17 F+ F D-
 Wed, Jan 7 127 @St. Thomas L 86 - 99 13% -15  5 - 9 0 - 2 -8 +11 A- C- F+ -18 F F D-
 Sat, Jan 10 284 Denver W 82 - 72 61% +2  6 - 9 1 - 2 -0 -3 B- F C +2 A D C+
 Thu, Jan 15 354 UMKC W 99 - 83 81% +17  7 - 9 2 - 2 -1 +11 B- A- B -13 F+ C+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 290 @North Dakota L 80 - 96 39% -11  7 - 10 2 - 3 -20 +3 B- F B- -24 F F F
 Wed, Jan 21 250 @Nebraska Omaha W 68 - 64 30% -2  8 - 10 3 - 3 +2 -8 C F F +10 A D- B-
 Sat, Jan 24 127 St. Thomas L 78 - 90 27% -2  8 - 11 3 - 4 -13 +5 D+ C- A+ -18 D F C
 Thu, Jan 29 332 Oral Roberts W 83 - 77 73%
 Sat, Jan 31 134 North Dakota St. L 76 - 82 29%
 Wed, Feb 4 354 @UMKC W 82 - 79 62%
 Sat, Feb 7 171 @South Dakota St. L 78 - 87 18%
 Wed, Feb 11 290 North Dakota W 85 - 82 61%
 Thu, Feb 19 284 @Denver L 86 - 89 39%
 Sat, Feb 21 332 @Oral Roberts W 80 - 79 51%
 Wed, Feb 25 250 Nebraska Omaha W 81 - 80 52%
 Sat, Feb 28 171 South Dakota St. L 81 - 84 38%
Totals 12 - 16 7 - 9 -7 -1 C- C- D+ -6 D+ F C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.0 4.1 1.3 0.1 10.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 8.0 7.9 1.4 0.0 18.7 4th
5th 0.1 3.3 12.4 11.4 2.1 0.0 29.4 5th
6th 0.1 3.6 11.9 9.5 1.7 0.1 26.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.7 5.4 3.7 0.5 11.4 7th
8th 0.3 1.5 0.6 0.0 2.4 8th
9th 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
Total 0.5 3.4 9.7 19.1 23.9 21.8 14.1 5.7 1.6 0.2 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 12.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.2% 8.3% 8.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-5 1.6% 7.6% 7.6% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.5
10-6 5.7% 4.9% 4.9% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.4
9-7 14.1% 3.5% 3.5% 15.8 0.1 0.4 13.6
8-8 21.8% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.6 21.2
7-9 23.9% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.4 23.5
6-10 19.1% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.3 18.8
5-11 9.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 9.7
4-12 3.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.4
3-13 0.5% 0.5
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 15.8 97.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 0.2%