North Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.5#342
Expected Predictive Rating-13.7#340
Pace71.9#118
Improvement-3.2#347

Offense
Total Offense-7.7#350
First Shot-4.6#302
After Offensive Rebound-3.1#343
Layup/Dunks+0.2#167
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#211
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#289
Freethrows-0.9#241
Improvement-2.4#338

Defense
Total Defense-3.8#298
First Shot-0.2#182
After Offensive Rebounds-3.6#350
Layups/Dunks-2.5#271
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#35
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#150
Freethrows-0.9#237
Improvement-0.8#249
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.9% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.6% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 9.5% 14.4% 8.8%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 38.4% 30.4% 39.6%
First Four0.5% 0.8% 0.5%
First Round0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Winthrop (Home) - 13.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 71 - 12
Quad 46 - 117 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 15 @Alabama L 62-91 1%     0 - 1 -8.4 -7.5 +0.6
  Thu, Nov 6 268 UC Riverside L 70-74 39%     0 - 2 -12.7 -8.7 -4.0
  Sun, Nov 9 222 Cal St. Northridge L 85-93 32%     0 - 3 -14.6 +1.5 -15.5
  Sat, Nov 15 268 @UC Riverside W 76-74 20%     1 - 3 -0.7 -3.5 +2.6
  Wed, Nov 19 59 @Creighton L 60-75 2%     1 - 4 -2.7 -2.7 -1.2
  Sat, Nov 22 243 Coastal Carolina L 58-75 26%     1 - 5 -21.7 -18.6 -2.1
  Sun, Nov 23 354 @Western Illinois W 78-69 47%     2 - 5 -1.7 -3.1 +1.0
  Fri, Nov 28 111 @Hawaii L 55-92 6%     2 - 6 -30.5 -15.9 -11.0
  Wed, Dec 3 173 @Idaho L 58-90 11%     2 - 7 -30.0 -15.8 -14.5
  Sat, Dec 6 205 Montana L 75-79 29%     2 - 8 -9.9 -1.2 -8.8
  Sat, Dec 13 354 Western Illinois L 66-69 OT 69%     2 - 9 -19.7 -16.8 -2.8
  Thu, Dec 18 112 Winthrop L 72-84 13%    
  Sun, Dec 21 26 @Nebraska L 60-89 0.3%   
  Thu, Jan 1 300 Oral Roberts L 76-77 47%    
  Sat, Jan 3 158 South Dakota St. L 69-78 21%    
  Thu, Jan 8 235 @Nebraska Omaha L 69-79 17%    
  Sat, Jan 10 345 @UMKC L 70-73 40%    
  Thu, Jan 15 136 St. Thomas L 68-78 18%    
  Sat, Jan 17 278 South Dakota L 80-82 42%    
  Thu, Jan 22 300 @Oral Roberts L 73-80 27%    
  Sat, Jan 24 314 @Denver L 76-81 31%    
  Thu, Jan 29 136 @St. Thomas L 65-81 7%    
  Thu, Feb 5 235 Nebraska Omaha L 72-76 34%    
  Sat, Feb 7 314 Denver W 79-78 52%    
  Wed, Feb 11 278 @South Dakota L 77-85 23%    
  Sat, Feb 14 144 North Dakota St. L 69-78 20%    
  Thu, Feb 19 345 UMKC W 73-70 62%    
  Sat, Feb 21 158 @South Dakota St. L 66-81 10%    
  Sat, Feb 28 144 @North Dakota St. L 66-81 8%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 5 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 2.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.1 2.4 0.4 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.1 6.3 3.7 0.5 0.0 13.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.8 8.8 4.5 0.7 0.0 19.4 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 7.3 10.2 4.8 0.6 0.0 24.9 8th
9th 1.1 4.9 8.8 8.0 2.9 0.3 0.0 26.0 9th
Total 1.1 5.0 10.8 15.9 18.1 17.2 13.1 9.3 5.2 2.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 78.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-4 37.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 13.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 2.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-4 0.1% 12.5% 12.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
11-5 0.4% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4
10-6 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 1.1
9-7 2.6% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 2.6
8-8 5.2% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 5.1
7-9 9.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 9.2
6-10 13.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 13.1
5-11 17.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 17.1
4-12 18.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 18.0
3-13 15.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.9
2-14 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.8
1-15 5.0% 5.0
0-16 1.1% 1.1
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%