North Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.4 #290
Expected Predictive Rating -5.8 #252
Pace 70.2 #140
Improvement +6.0 #10

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #221 D+ C- C+ C B-
Defense #328 F+ D B+ D- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #129 1.03 #316 -1.4 #234
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #276 0.64 #331 -2.7 #313
Three Pointers 43% #138 0.99 #224 +0.6 #154
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #283 -3.6 #286
Freethrows 0.32 #129 70% #263 0.22 #169
Second Chance 28.2% #251 1.05 #174 0.30 #227
Turnovers 15.3% #113
Total Offense -2.0 #221

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #102 1.25 #294 -3.8 #303
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #348 0.82 #281 +2.0 #46
Three Pointers 44% #87 1.17 #348 -5.1 #345
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #352 -6.9 #352
Freethrows 0.39 #352 71% #117 0.27 #342
Second Chance 33.6% #302 1.13 #290 0.38 #313
Turnovers 19.8% #33
Total Defense -5.4 #328

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.4% #85 2.1% #346
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.1% #312 11.2% #347
Possession Length 18.1 #256 16.5 #47
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #293 0.18 #229
Improvement +7.4 #1 -1.4 #268

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 3.8% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 5.5% 18.9% 3.6%
.500 or above in Conference 88.6% 98.8% 87.1%
Conference Champion 0.7% 3.8% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.8% 1.9% 1.8%
First Round1.7% 2.9% 1.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Thomas (Away) - 12.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 62 - 11
Quad 411 - 713 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 16 @Alabama L 62 - 91 1% -17  0 - 1 -8 -7 C+ F B- +1 D+ A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 6 291 UC Riverside L 70 - 74 62% -5  0 - 2 -14 -8 C F C+ -6 F B A+
 Sun, Nov 9 217 Cal St. Northridge L 85 - 93 46% -4  0 - 3 -14 +2 C C+ A -16 F F A-
 Sat, Nov 15 291 @UC Riverside W 76 - 74 39% +0  1 - 3 -2 -3 C F+ C+ +0 F C A+
 Wed, Nov 19 53 @Creighton L 60 - 75 4% -9  1 - 4 -2 -4 D+ D+ B +0 A+ F B+
 Sat, Nov 22 237 Coastal Carolina L 58 - 75 38% -10  1 - 5 -21 -19 F D+ D -1 F+ B C
 Sun, Nov 23 360 @Western Illinois W 78 - 69 68% -1  2 - 5 -3 -2 C- F F -2 F D A+
 Fri, Nov 28 99 @Hawaii L 55 - 92 8% -14  2 - 6 -29 -15 F D+ F -10 F C+ A-
 Wed, Dec 3 189 @Idaho L 58 - 90 21% -15  2 - 7 -31 -15 C- F F -16 F F A-
 Sat, Dec 6 161 Montana L 75 - 79 34% +1  2 - 8 -7 +2 D A C+ -9 D- F A
 Sat, Dec 13 360 Western Illinois L 66 - 69 OT 84% -1  2 - 9 -21 -16 F C+ F -5 A+ F A
 Thu, Dec 18 124 Winthrop W 90 - 88 26% -2  3 - 9 +1 +17 C- A+ A+ -15 F F C+
 Sun, Dec 21 13 @Nebraska L 55 - 78 1% -3  3 - 10 -1 -4 C F B +2 B+ A F+
 Thu, Jan 1 332 Oral Roberts W 72 - 61 73% +10  4 - 10 1 - 0 -3 -6 D- D+ F +4 B+ D+ C
 Sat, Jan 3 171 South Dakota St. W 90 - 87 OT 37% +1  5 - 10 2 - 0 -1 +15 B- A+ B- -16 D- F B-
 Thu, Jan 8 250 @Nebraska Omaha L 79 - 90 30% -7  5 - 11 2 - 1 -13 +7 D+ C A- -20 F D+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 354 @UMKC W 81 - 79 63% -2  6 - 11 3 - 1 -9 +10 D+ C A+ -19 F C+ A+
 Thu, Jan 15 127 St. Thomas L 80 - 91 27% -5  6 - 12 3 - 2 -12 +3 C A- D -15 F D A
 Sat, Jan 17 287 South Dakota W 96 - 80 61% +11  7 - 12 4 - 2 +6 +16 C+ A+ A+ -10 F A+ C+
 Thu, Jan 22 332 @Oral Roberts W 79 - 62 51% +8  8 - 12 5 - 2 +9 +8 D+ C A+ +2 B F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 284 @Denver W 93 - 86 38% +0  9 - 12 6 - 2 +3 +8 C+ D C -6 F+ A- B+
 Thu, Jan 29 127 @St. Thomas L 72 - 84 12%
 Thu, Feb 5 250 Nebraska Omaha W 77 - 76 52%
 Sat, Feb 7 284 Denver W 85 - 82 61%
 Wed, Feb 11 287 @South Dakota L 82 - 85 39%
 Sat, Feb 14 134 North Dakota St. L 72 - 78 29%
 Thu, Feb 19 354 UMKC W 81 - 72 80%
 Sat, Feb 21 171 @South Dakota St. L 73 - 82 18%
 Sat, Feb 28 134 @North Dakota St. L 69 - 81 13%
Totals 12 - 17 9 - 7 -7 -2 D+ C- C+ -5 F+ D B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.5 0.2 4.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 8.7 14.1 7.0 0.9 32.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.7 13.2 19.1 7.7 0.8 0.0 42.5 4th
5th 0.3 4.9 7.8 1.8 0.1 14.9 5th
6th 0.9 3.0 0.8 0.0 4.7 6th
7th 0.4 0.2 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
Total 1.6 9.9 23.2 29.7 22.5 9.9 2.9 0.4 0.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-3 53.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0
12-4 14.4% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0
11-5 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-3 0.4% 12.3% 12.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-4 2.9% 5.5% 5.5% 15.5 0.1 0.1 2.7
11-5 9.9% 4.3% 4.3% 15.8 0.1 0.4 9.5
10-6 22.5% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.7 21.8
9-7 29.7% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.7 29.0
8-8 23.2% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.4 22.8
7-9 9.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 9.8
6-10 1.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.6
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 15.9 97.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.2%