St. Thomas
Summit League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.6#136
Expected Predictive Rating+1.8#144
Pace69.3#193
Improvement+4.8#5

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#138
First Shot+6.1#34
After Offensive Rebound-5.0#363
Layup/Dunks+9.5#2
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#362
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#62
Freethrows-2.6#318
Improvement+2.3#38

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#151
First Shot-0.7#209
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#101
Layups/Dunks-2.7#277
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#25
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#213
Freethrows+0.2#166
Improvement+2.5#29
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.2% 32.3% 25.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.4
.500 or above 98.9% 99.4% 96.6%
.500 or above in Conference 97.0% 97.4% 95.2%
Conference Champion 42.7% 44.4% 34.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
First Round31.1% 32.2% 25.6%
Second Round1.9% 2.1% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Riverside (Home) - 83.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 35 - 45 - 5
Quad 416 - 421 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 38 @St. Mary's L 58-84 11%     0 - 1 -10.8 -1.4 -11.4
  Sat, Nov 8 332 Army W 83-76 91%     1 - 1 -6.5 +5.5 -11.8
  Mon, Nov 10 165 @Washington St. L 71-81 46%     1 - 2 -7.4 -1.1 -6.5
  Thu, Nov 13 277 Green Bay W 80-61 84%     2 - 2 +9.8 +1.1 +8.7
  Sat, Nov 15 217 @Southeast Missouri St. W 84-72 57%     3 - 2 +11.6 +4.9 +5.7
  Fri, Nov 21 156 Northern Colorado W 73-72 55%     4 - 2 +1.2 -2.9 +4.1
  Sat, Nov 22 272 Cal St. Fullerton L 80-88 76%     4 - 3 -13.8 -2.4 -10.8
  Sun, Nov 23 269 @Portland W 76-66 66%     5 - 3 +7.3 +0.4 +6.7
  Wed, Dec 3 174 @Montana St. L 74-82 48%     5 - 4 -6.0 +5.8 -12.1
  Sun, Dec 7 214 Weber St. W 88-65 77%     6 - 4 +16.7 +12.0 +4.7
  Sat, Dec 13 227 @UNC Asheville W 80-59 59%     7 - 4 +20.3 +9.7 +11.5
  Sat, Dec 20 268 UC Riverside W 79-69 84%    
  Sun, Jan 4 314 Denver W 86-72 90%    
  Wed, Jan 7 278 South Dakota W 87-76 84%    
  Sat, Jan 10 300 @Oral Roberts W 80-74 72%    
  Thu, Jan 15 342 @North Dakota W 78-68 82%    
  Sat, Jan 17 144 @North Dakota St. L 73-75 41%    
  Thu, Jan 22 158 South Dakota St. W 76-72 66%    
  Sat, Jan 24 278 @South Dakota W 84-79 67%    
  Thu, Jan 29 342 North Dakota W 81-65 93%    
  Sun, Feb 1 345 UMKC W 80-64 93%    
  Wed, Feb 4 158 @South Dakota St. L 73-75 45%    
  Sat, Feb 7 300 Oral Roberts W 83-71 87%    
  Thu, Feb 12 235 @Nebraska Omaha W 76-73 60%    
  Sat, Feb 14 345 @UMKC W 77-67 82%    
  Sat, Feb 21 314 @Denver W 83-75 75%    
  Thu, Feb 26 144 North Dakota St. W 76-72 63%    
  Sat, Feb 28 235 Nebraska Omaha W 79-70 78%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.0 7.0 12.7 12.4 6.8 1.7 42.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.8 8.3 10.0 4.8 0.7 26.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.5 6.7 5.5 1.6 0.1 16.7 3rd
4th 0.2 1.7 3.6 2.2 0.4 0.0 8.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.6 0.9 0.1 3.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.9 7.3 11.9 16.2 18.6 17.6 13.0 6.8 1.7 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.7    1.7
15-1 100.0% 6.8    6.6 0.2
14-2 94.9% 12.4    10.5 1.8 0.0
13-3 72.2% 12.7    7.8 4.5 0.4
12-4 37.7% 7.0    2.7 3.2 1.1 0.0
11-5 12.1% 2.0    0.3 0.8 0.7 0.2
10-6 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 42.7% 42.7 29.6 10.6 2.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.7% 57.3% 57.3% 11.7 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.7
15-1 6.8% 53.5% 53.5% 12.8 0.1 1.2 1.8 0.6 0.0 3.2
14-2 13.0% 44.9% 44.9% 13.4 0.5 2.7 2.4 0.3 0.0 7.2
13-3 17.6% 38.9% 38.9% 13.8 0.2 1.9 3.6 1.2 0.0 10.8
12-4 18.6% 30.8% 30.8% 14.2 0.0 0.8 3.0 1.8 0.1 12.8
11-5 16.2% 24.9% 24.9% 14.5 0.3 1.6 1.9 0.2 12.1
10-6 11.9% 19.4% 19.4% 14.8 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.3 9.6
9-7 7.3% 15.3% 15.3% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 6.2
8-8 3.9% 12.4% 12.4% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 3.4
7-9 1.9% 10.1% 10.1% 15.8 0.0 0.2 1.7
6-10 0.7% 8.7% 8.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.7
5-11 0.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-12 0.1% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 31.2% 31.2% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.4 2.3 7.8 11.9 7.4 1.5 68.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 11.6 1.8 39.4 52.5 6.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%