St. Thomas
Summit League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.0 #127
Expected Predictive Rating +3.5 #113
Pace 70.1 #148
Improvement +1.9 #94

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #123 B+ F+ C+ C B+
Defense #156 C D+ B- C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #81 1.35 #19 +6.2 #18
2 Pt. Jumpers 10% #348 0.59 #351 -4.9 #360
Three Pointers 48% #43 1.08 #87 +5.1 #36
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #31 +6.4 #30
Freethrows 0.30 #186 71% #232 0.21 #196
Second Chance 19.5% #363 0.99 #249 0.19 #361
Turnovers 15.3% #109
Total Offense +1.7 #123

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #107 1.23 #277 -3.2 #284
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #268 0.66 #46 +1.9 #53
Three Pointers 41% #193 0.99 #145 +0.6 #149
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #198 -0.7 #199
Freethrows 0.28 #90 75% #315 0.21 #133
Second Chance 29.5% #136 1.22 #347 0.36 #282
Turnovers 18.2% #75
Total Defense +0.3 #156

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.3% #17 1.1% #273
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.9% #54 0.2% #188
Possession Length 17.1 #146 17.1 #143
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #170 0.14 #86
Improvement +1.7 #96 +0.2 #178

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.9% 36.8% 29.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.4 13.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 44.6% 47.4% 24.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round35.9% 36.8% 29.8%
Second Round1.8% 1.9% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota (Home) - 87.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 34 - 44 - 6
Quad 418 - 223 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 42 @St. Mary's L 58 - 84 12% -11  0 - 1 -11 -3 A F C -10 F+ B+ C+
 Sat, Nov 8 339 Army W 83 - 76 93% +11  1 - 1 -7 +2 D+ C B+ -9 D- C C
 Mon, Nov 10 138 @Washington St. L 71 - 81 41% -15  1 - 2 -6 -0 C+ F B- -5 C+ F A-
 Thu, Nov 13 243 Green Bay W 80 - 61 82% +19  2 - 2 +11 -0 B+ F C +11 A- C A
 Sat, Nov 15 245 @Southeast Missouri St. W 84 - 72 64% +13  3 - 2 +10 +5 A+ F F+ +4 C+ D+ B-
 Fri, Nov 21 197 Northern Colorado W 73 - 72 66% -5  4 - 2 -1 -6 D C D- +4 B- F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 216 Cal St. Fullerton L 80 - 88 69% +1  4 - 3 -11 -0 F+ D A+ -10 C- C D
 Sun, Nov 23 204 @Portland W 76 - 66 57% +5  5 - 3 +10 +3 C+ C- A- +8 C- F+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 157 @Montana St. L 74 - 82 45% -1  5 - 4 -5 +5 A+ F F -10 C D+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 215 Weber St. W 88 - 65 78% +18  6 - 4 +17 +10 A+ C+ B- +6 B C A+
 Sat, Dec 13 203 @UNC Asheville W 80 - 59 57% +13  7 - 4 +21 +12 A- D B +11 B+ C A+
 Sat, Dec 20 291 UC Riverside W 92 - 78 87% +7  8 - 4 +4 +16 A+ D A+ -12 D C- C
 Sun, Jan 4 284 Denver W 92 - 88 87% +3  9 - 4 1 - 0 -6 +6 C D B+ -12 C- F C
 Wed, Jan 7 287 South Dakota W 99 - 86 87% +15  10 - 4 2 - 0 +3 +14 A+ F+ B+ -12 F D+ A-
 Sat, Jan 10 332 @Oral Roberts W 82 - 71 82% +2  11 - 4 3 - 0 +3 +11 C+ F A+ -7 D C F
 Thu, Jan 15 290 @North Dakota W 91 - 80 73% +5  12 - 4 4 - 0 +7 +11 A+ F+ C -5 D+ F A
 Sat, Jan 17 134 @North Dakota St. L 65 - 68 40% -3  12 - 5 4 - 1 +2 -6 C F D- +7 B- A- B
 Thu, Jan 22 171 South Dakota St. W 74 - 69 72% -1  13 - 5 5 - 1 +1 -1 B- D F+ +2 C B- B-
 Sat, Jan 24 287 @South Dakota W 90 - 78 73% +2  14 - 5 6 - 1 +8 +14 A- D- C -6 C+ D+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 290 North Dakota W 84 - 72 88%
 Sun, Feb 1 354 UMKC W 85 - 66 96%
 Wed, Feb 4 171 @South Dakota St. L 76 - 77 49%
 Sat, Feb 7 332 Oral Roberts W 83 - 67 93%
 Thu, Feb 12 250 @Nebraska Omaha W 77 - 73 64%
 Sat, Feb 14 354 @UMKC W 82 - 69 88%
 Sat, Feb 21 284 @Denver W 85 - 79 72%
 Thu, Feb 26 134 North Dakota St. W 76 - 73 62%
 Sat, Feb 28 250 Nebraska Omaha W 80 - 70 82%
Totals 21 - 7 13 - 3 +2 +2 B+ F+ C+ +0 C D+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.4 11.7 19.7 10.6 44.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 7.4 17.0 18.4 5.8 49.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.2 0.8 4.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.0 9.8 20.3 30.1 25.6 10.6 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 10.6    9.0 1.6
14-2 77.1% 19.7    11.4 8.3
13-3 38.9% 11.7    4.1 7.2 0.4
12-4 12.0% 2.4    0.5 1.4 0.5 0.0
11-5 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 44.6% 44.6 25.0 18.6 1.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 10.6% 49.1% 49.1% 12.4 0.2 2.6 2.2 0.2 0.0 5.4
14-2 25.6% 41.8% 41.8% 13.2 0.0 1.2 6.0 3.3 0.2 14.9
13-3 30.1% 35.0% 35.0% 13.6 0.3 4.2 5.2 0.8 19.6
12-4 20.3% 30.7% 30.7% 13.9 0.0 1.4 3.6 1.2 0.0 14.1
11-5 9.8% 27.0% 27.0% 14.2 0.3 1.4 0.9 0.0 7.1
10-6 3.0% 18.9% 18.9% 14.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 2.4
9-7 0.7% 17.6% 17.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6
8-8 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
7-9 0.0% 0.0
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 35.9% 35.9% 0.0% 13.5 64.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.2% 100.0% 12.4 3.8 50.7 42.4 2.9 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.0%