North Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.5 #134
Expected Predictive Rating +3.5 #114
Pace 65.5 #275
Improvement +1.4 #118

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #131 C C C D D+
Defense #163 D+ B B B C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #328 1.17 #158 -3.3 #296
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #100 0.80 #109 +2.1 #77
Three Pointers 43% #142 1.04 #154 +1.5 #127
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #165 +0.3 #165
Freethrows 0.26 #298 70% #244 0.18 #304
Second Chance 32.7% #120 0.97 #284 0.32 #177
Turnovers 16.0% #153
Total Offense +1.4 #131

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #283 1.27 #309 +0.1 #172
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #125 0.78 #217 -0.7 #233
Three Pointers 43% #119 1.11 #296 -3.0 #302
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #292 -3.6 #291
Freethrows 0.24 #26 74% #294 0.18 #36
Second Chance 32.0% #250 0.82 #7 0.26 #55
Turnovers 18.8% #55
Total Defense +0.1 #163

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.8% #303 -0.8% #100
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.5% #136 8.0% #320
Possession Length 18.1 #253 17.6 #218
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #144 0.13 #63
Improvement +3.4 #32 -2.0 #298

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.9% 36.7% 30.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.5 13.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 74.0% 80.8% 57.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round34.9% 36.7% 30.7%
Second Round1.5% 1.7% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota (Away) - 70.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 11 - 1
Quad 35 - 56 - 6
Quad 417 - 223 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 194 @Oregon St. L 65 - 67 53% -1  0 - 1 -1 -4 D+ D- A- +3 D- A+ C
 Wed, Nov 5 182 @UC Davis L 68 - 80 50% -2  0 - 2 -11 -3 F B C -8 F F+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 217 Cal St. Northridge W 90 - 68 77% +5  1 - 2 +16 +2 F A+ B +11 A+ D+ A+
 Mon, Nov 17 145 Southern Illinois W 92 - 85 64% +4  2 - 2 +5 +12 A- B B- -8 F B A-
 Wed, Nov 26 196 Jacksonville St. W 56 - 43 64% +10  3 - 2 +11 -10 C F C +23 A+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 151 @Arkansas St. L 80 - 85 OT 42% +1  3 - 3 -1 -1 D+ D- D+ +0 C B+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 161 @Montana W 81 - 72 44% +3  4 - 3 +12 +10 D+ A+ C +2 C- B C
 Sat, Dec 6 313 Northern Arizona W 69 - 68 89% +1  5 - 3 -11 -12 F D F +1 D+ B B-
 Thu, Dec 11 301 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 80 - 69 74% +6  6 - 3 +6 +2 F A+ D+ +3 C+ C B+
 Sat, Dec 13 148 @Drake W 99 - 94 41% +9  7 - 3 +9 +26 A+ B+ A+ -17 F A+ A-
 Sun, Dec 21 119 UC Irvine L 73 - 74 45% -3  7 - 4 +2 +11 A- A+ F -9 F C+ C-
 Mon, Dec 22 256 @UTEP L 66 - 76 64% -3  7 - 5 -12 -5 C F F -8 F+ C+ B
 Wed, Dec 31 287 South Dakota W 84 - 61 86% +10  8 - 5 1 - 0 +13 +12 B- B B +3 C A A+
 Sat, Jan 3 332 Oral Roberts W 79 - 77 2OT 91% -0  9 - 5 2 - 0 -12 -5 F B F -6 C- C C
 Thu, Jan 8 354 @UMKC W 97 - 73 87% +18  10 - 5 3 - 0 +13 +23 A+ D- A- -9 F A- A
 Sat, Jan 10 250 @Nebraska Omaha W 78 - 76 63% -6  11 - 5 4 - 0 +0 +14 A- C- C+ -14 F+ F B-
 Wed, Jan 14 171 South Dakota St. W 76 - 65 70% +8  12 - 5 5 - 0 +7 +7 A+ F B- +1 D+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 127 St. Thomas W 68 - 65 60% +3  13 - 5 6 - 0 +2 -6 D+ F C +8 B- A A+
 Thu, Jan 22 284 @Denver W 82 - 77 71% +5  14 - 5 7 - 0 +1 +7 B- D C -6 D B- D
 Sat, Jan 24 332 @Oral Roberts W 86 - 58 81% +19  15 - 5 8 - 0 +20 +20 A+ C+ A+ +3 D C+ A-
 Sat, Jan 31 287 @South Dakota W 82 - 76 71%
 Thu, Feb 5 284 Denver W 86 - 74 87%
 Sat, Feb 7 250 Nebraska Omaha W 77 - 68 81%
 Sat, Feb 14 290 @North Dakota W 78 - 72 71%
 Wed, Feb 18 171 @South Dakota St. L 74 - 75 47%
 Sat, Feb 21 354 UMKC W 82 - 64 96%
 Thu, Feb 26 127 @St. Thomas L 73 - 76 38%
 Sat, Feb 28 290 North Dakota W 81 - 69 87%
Totals 21 - 7 14 - 2 +2 +1 C C C +0 D+ B B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.6 13.9 28.5 22.1 6.8 74.0 1st
2nd 0.2 2.3 8.1 10.1 3.6 24.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.1 0.6 3.4 11.1 23.9 32.0 22.1 6.8 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 6.8    6.8
15-1 100.0% 22.1    20.5 1.6
14-2 88.9% 28.5    20.2 8.3
13-3 58.0% 13.9    6.1 7.3 0.4
12-4 23.5% 2.6    0.6 1.5 0.5 0.0
11-5 4.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8
Total 74.0% 74.0 54.2 18.8 1.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 6.8% 47.3% 47.3% 12.5 0.1 1.6 1.4 0.1 3.6
15-1 22.1% 41.1% 41.1% 13.3 0.0 0.9 4.7 3.2 0.2 13.0
14-2 32.0% 36.6% 36.6% 13.7 0.0 0.3 4.2 6.2 1.0 0.0 20.3
13-3 23.9% 30.6% 30.6% 14.0 0.1 1.5 4.2 1.5 0.0 16.6
12-4 11.1% 25.5% 25.5% 14.3 0.3 1.5 1.0 0.1 8.3
11-5 3.4% 20.1% 20.1% 14.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 2.7
10-6 0.6% 12.5% 12.5% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
9-7 0.1% 0.0 0.1
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 34.9% 34.9% 0.0% 13.6 65.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.2% 100.0% 12.5 2.5 51.0 43.2 3.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2%