Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
128 St. Thomas 36.6%   14   11 - 4 3 - 0 +1.8      +2.2 112 -0.4 173 70.0 153 +3.5 112 +7.4 2
145 North Dakota St. 31.1%   12 - 5 5 - 0 +1.0      +1.5 126 -0.5 181 65.8 275 +2.4 131 +8.8 1
177 South Dakota St. 16.6%   6 - 10 2 - 2 -1.4      0.0 163 -1.4 221 70.6 139 -4.7 239 -5.5 5
258 Nebraska Omaha 5.0%   4 - 11 1 - 3 -5.5      -0.4 176 -5.1 329 68.5 209 -7.7 289 -14.8 8
276 Denver 3.8%   6 - 11 2 - 3 -6.5      +2.7 102 -9.2 363 69.7 163 -3.9 229 -7.8 6
285 South Dakota 3.5%   6 - 9 1 - 2 -6.8      -1.5 207 -5.3 333 77.4 22 -5.8 253 -4.8 4
301 Oral Roberts 1.6%   2 - 14 0 - 4 -8.3      -4.2 287 -4.1 300 68.9 192 -10.2 324 -18.0 9
316 North Dakota 1.5%   6 - 11 3 - 1 -9.3      -3.8 276 -5.5 335 70.7 134 -7.6 286 -0.5 3
346 UMKC 0.5%   1 - 14 1 - 3 -11.9      -7.8 347 -4.0 299 71.5 111 -16.5 351 -11.5 7


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Jan 14 145 North Dakota St. 76 177 South Dakota St. 65   
Wed, Jan 14 276 Denver 98 301 Oral Roberts 87   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Jan 15 346 UMKC 76 285 South Dakota 84 78%   
Thu, Jan 15 316 North Dakota 74 128 St. Thomas 82 78%   
Sat, Jan 17 145 North Dakota St. 76 128 St. Thomas 74 58%   
Sat, Jan 17 258 Nebraska Omaha 75 301 Oral Roberts 76 51%   
Sat, Jan 17 316 North Dakota 83 285 South Dakota 82 52%   
Sat, Jan 17 346 UMKC 68 177 South Dakota St. 82 89%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
St. Thomas 1.7 53.1 33.6 9.7 2.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
North Dakota St. 1.5 56.6 34.3 7.3 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
South Dakota St. 3.2 7.3 21.4 41.2 16.9 7.5 3.4 1.6 0.6 0.1
Nebraska Omaha 5.6 0.3 2.4 9.9 18.6 18.6 17.6 15.4 11.7 5.4
Denver 5.2 0.5 2.9 11.9 21.7 20.9 17.7 13.6 8.2 2.7
South Dakota 5.2 0.7 4.2 14.4 20.6 18.8 15.8 12.1 8.9 4.6
Oral Roberts 7.0 0.0 0.3 2.8 6.9 10.8 15.0 19.3 23.8 21.0
North Dakota 5.3 0.6 2.6 10.3 19.8 20.9 20.1 15.0 8.5 2.3
UMKC 7.7 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.8 5.2 9.3 15.0 25.8 40.8

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
St. Thomas 13 - 3 21 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.5 3.7 8.1 13.8 19.6 22.2 17.8 10.2 2.8
North Dakota St. 13 - 3 20 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 6.6 13.7 20.4 24.1 19.7 10.0 2.6
South Dakota St. 10 - 6 14 - 14 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.2 7.1 13.4 19.1 20.9 18.4 11.7 4.4 0.8
Nebraska Omaha 7 - 9 10 - 17 0.1 1.2 3.7 8.6 14.5 18.5 19.5 16.0 10.4 5.4 1.7 0.4 0.0
Denver 7 - 9 11 - 17 0.3 1.7 6.0 12.4 17.9 20.9 18.8 12.9 6.3 2.2 0.5 0.1
South Dakota 7 - 9 12 - 16 0.1 0.7 2.6 6.6 11.8 16.3 18.5 17.2 12.8 7.8 3.9 1.5 0.2 0.0
Oral Roberts 5 - 11 7 - 21 0.3 2.0 6.2 12.2 18.4 20.6 17.7 12.6 6.7 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
North Dakota 7 - 9 10 - 19 1.2 5.8 13.6 20.8 21.7 17.6 11.1 5.3 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
UMKC 4 - 12 4 - 23 3.8 12.9 21.1 23.1 18.7 11.2 5.7 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
St. Thomas 53.1% 38.3 13.3 1.3 0.2 0.0
North Dakota St. 56.6% 41.1 14.0 1.4 0.2 0.0
South Dakota St. 7.3% 2.7 3.4 1.1 0.1 0.0
Nebraska Omaha 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Denver 0.5% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
South Dakota 0.7% 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Oral Roberts 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
North Dakota 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
UMKC 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
St. Thomas 36.6% 36.6% 0.0% 14   0.4 3.5 11.9 15.6 4.9 0.3 63.5 0.0%
North Dakota St. 31.1% 31.1% 0.0% 0.1 1.7 8.0 14.0 7.0 0.4 68.9 0.0%
South Dakota St. 16.6% 16.6% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 3.0 7.1 5.6 83.4 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 4.2 95.0 0.0%
Denver 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.8 96.2 0.0%
South Dakota 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.6 96.5 0.0%
Oral Roberts 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 1.6 98.4 0.0%
North Dakota 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 1.4 98.5 0.0%
UMKC 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5 99.5 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 94.2% 0.9 5.8 94.2
2nd Round 3.7% 0.0 96.3 3.7
Sweet Sixteen 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
St. Thomas 36.6% 0.0% 36.5% 2.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota St. 31.1% 0.0% 31.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota St. 16.6% 2.8% 15.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 5.0% 3.5% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Denver 3.8% 2.1% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota 3.5% 1.8% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oral Roberts 1.6% 1.5% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota 1.5% 1.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UMKC 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%