Preseason Rankings
Atlantic 10
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
60 Virginia Commonwealth 26.7%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 8 12 - 6 +9.4      +3.3 86 +6.1 34 65.6 247 0.0 1 0.0 1
65 Dayton 27.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 12 - 6 +9.0      +4.5 61 +4.6 59 65.3 256 0.0 1 0.0 1
70 Saint Louis 20.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 11 - 7 +8.2      +4.8 58 +3.4 83 68.2 180 0.0 1 0.0 1
85 George Washington 13.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 10 - 8 +6.5      +4.4 63 +2.1 113 67.5 198 0.0 1 0.0 1
94 Loyola Chicago 10.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 8 +5.6      +2.1 111 +3.5 80 67.0 212 0.0 1 0.0 1
101 George Mason 9.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 10 - 8 +5.1      +0.8 142 +4.3 66 63.1 314 0.0 1 0.0 1
110 Saint Joseph's 7.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 9 - 9 +4.0      +0.7 143 +3.2 88 69.5 134 0.0 1 0.0 1
116 Duquesne 4.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 8 - 9 +3.2      +0.8 141 +2.4 107 63.6 298 0.0 1 0.0 1
124 St. Bonaventure 3.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 11 6 - 9 +2.3      -0.3 168 +2.6 104 62.7 320 0.0 1 0.0 1
131 Richmond 3.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 7 - 9 +2.0      +1.0 133 +1.0 133 61.3 343 0.0 1 0.0 1
143 Rhode Island 2.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 13 7 - 9 +1.0      +0.7 145 +0.2 157 74.5 39 0.0 1 0.0 1
145 Davidson 2.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 14 7 - 9 +0.8      +0.5 150 +0.3 152 65.3 255 0.0 1 0.0 1
163 Fordham 1.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 7 - 11 -0.6      +1.1 131 -1.7 224 72.9 60 0.0 1 0.0 1
187 La Salle 0.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 19 6 - 12 -1.9      -1.0 200 -1.0 199 70.9 101 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Virginia Commonwealth 3.6 29.2 17.9 13.6 9.7 7.7 6.0 4.5 3.4 2.9 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.2
Dayton 4.1 23.5 17.2 12.9 10.5 8.7 7.2 5.6 4.4 3.2 2.4 1.8 1.3 0.9 0.4
Saint Louis 4.3 21.8 16.2 12.7 11.3 8.8 6.9 6.0 4.6 3.7 3.0 2.1 1.5 0.9 0.5
George Washington 5.1 13.6 13.5 12.5 11.0 9.9 8.5 7.4 5.9 5.2 4.1 3.3 2.4 1.7 0.9
Loyola Chicago 5.9 9.9 11.3 10.4 10.2 9.2 8.8 8.3 7.4 6.2 5.3 4.7 3.9 2.7 1.6
George Mason 6.0 9.7 10.4 10.0 10.2 9.3 8.8 8.3 7.5 6.4 5.4 4.4 4.3 3.0 2.1
Saint Joseph's 6.3 7.6 9.7 10.1 10.2 9.3 9.1 8.0 7.2 6.6 5.9 5.3 5.0 3.6 2.6
Duquesne 7.9 3.3 4.3 6.1 6.8 7.8 8.3 9.2 8.9 9.0 9.0 8.0 7.6 6.8 5.1
St. Bonaventure 9.5 0.7 1.5 2.6 3.9 5.5 6.2 7.3 8.3 9.5 10.4 11.7 11.3 11.2 10.0
Richmond 8.7 1.4 2.7 4.1 5.2 6.8 7.1 8.7 8.8 9.9 9.9 10.1 9.9 8.8 6.5
Rhode Island 9.1 0.9 2.2 3.6 5.1 5.8 7.1 8.1 8.3 9.3 9.8 10.1 10.4 10.1 9.1
Davidson 9.1 1.0 2.2 3.6 4.8 5.6 6.6 7.9 8.5 9.7 9.7 10.5 10.7 10.3 9.0
Fordham 9.1 1.7 2.6 4.0 4.8 5.9 6.8 7.6 8.2 8.7 9.3 9.4 9.6 10.3 11.1
La Salle 10.2 0.8 1.6 2.0 2.8 4.0 4.7 5.8 6.3 7.8 8.6 10.8 12.2 14.6 18.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Virginia Commonwealth 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.1 3.6 4.9 7.2 9.2 10.8 12.4 12.6 11.7 10.0 7.5 4.1 1.6
Dayton 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.6 2.8 4.4 6.1 8.5 10.2 11.7 12.0 12.1 10.7 8.5 5.9 2.9 0.8
Saint Louis 11 - 7 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.9 3.4 4.8 7.0 8.4 10.7 11.5 12.3 11.5 10.0 7.9 5.3 2.6 0.9
George Washington 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.9 3.1 5.0 6.9 8.8 10.5 11.7 11.6 11.8 9.7 7.7 5.4 3.1 1.2 0.3
Loyola Chicago 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.1 4.8 6.4 8.3 10.4 11.3 11.5 10.8 9.8 8.0 6.0 3.7 1.9 0.9 0.2
George Mason 10 - 8 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.3 4.9 6.6 8.8 9.9 11.7 11.4 10.6 9.0 7.9 5.8 3.4 2.1 0.9 0.2
Saint Joseph's 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.2 4.0 5.6 7.8 8.9 10.1 11.3 10.9 10.8 9.2 7.2 4.9 3.2 1.5 0.6 0.1
Duquesne 8 - 10 0.3 1.1 2.6 4.7 6.5 9.2 10.9 11.9 12.4 10.9 9.5 7.6 5.2 3.6 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1
St. Bonaventure 6 - 12 0.8 2.6 5.3 7.9 10.8 12.5 13.5 12.8 11.1 8.5 6.4 4.3 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.1
Richmond 7 - 11 0.4 1.5 3.4 5.8 8.8 11.6 12.6 12.9 12.1 9.9 8.3 5.6 3.6 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.1
Rhode Island 7 - 11 0.6 2.3 4.7 7.0 9.8 11.4 12.6 12.4 11.3 9.6 7.5 5.1 3.1 1.7 0.6 0.3 0.1
Davidson 7 - 11 0.6 2.3 4.6 7.1 10.1 12.0 12.5 12.5 11.5 9.2 6.9 4.9 3.0 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0
Fordham 7 - 11 0.8 2.5 5.2 7.5 9.7 10.9 12.1 11.7 10.8 8.8 7.2 5.1 3.7 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
La Salle 6 - 12 1.9 5.2 8.3 10.8 12.8 13.2 11.7 10.1 8.1 6.7 4.6 2.9 1.7 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Virginia Commonwealth 29.2% 20.3 6.8 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Dayton 23.5% 16.0 5.8 1.5 0.3 0.1
Saint Louis 21.8% 14.5 5.6 1.5 0.2 0.1
George Washington 13.6% 8.3 3.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Loyola Chicago 9.9% 5.9 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
George Mason 9.7% 5.7 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Saint Joseph's 7.6% 4.2 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Duquesne 3.3% 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
St. Bonaventure 0.7% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Richmond 1.4% 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Rhode Island 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Davidson 1.0% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Fordham 1.7% 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
La Salle 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Virginia Commonwealth 26.7% 19.7% 7.0% 11   0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.7 4.5 9.7 2.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 73.3 8.7%
Dayton 27.9% 18.2% 9.6% 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.8 2.3 3.5 6.2 8.2 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 72.1 11.8%
Saint Louis 20.7% 15.3% 5.4% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.7 3.9 7.9 2.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 79.3 6.3%
George Washington 13.8% 10.6% 3.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.1 2.5 6.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 86.2 3.7%
Loyola Chicago 10.9% 8.1% 2.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.9 2.0 4.7 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 89.1 3.0%
George Mason 9.4% 7.4% 2.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.3 4.1 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 90.6 2.1%
Saint Joseph's 7.1% 5.8% 1.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.0 3.2 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 92.9 1.4%
Duquesne 4.7% 3.7% 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 95.3 1.0%
St. Bonaventure 3.0% 2.5% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.0 0.5%
Richmond 3.1% 2.6% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.9 0.4%
Rhode Island 2.3% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.7 0.3%
Davidson 2.0% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.0 0.2%
Fordham 1.4% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.6 0.1%
La Salle 0.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.1 0.1%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Virginia Commonwealth 26.7% 2.8% 25.3% 11.1% 3.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Dayton 27.9% 3.4% 26.1% 11.8% 3.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Saint Louis 20.7% 2.6% 19.5% 8.1% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 13.8% 1.6% 13.0% 4.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 10.9% 1.5% 10.1% 3.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 9.4% 1.1% 8.9% 2.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 7.1% 0.8% 6.7% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 4.7% 0.5% 4.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 3.0% 0.3% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 3.1% 0.3% 2.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 2.3% 0.2% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 2.0% 0.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 1.4% 0.0% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.9% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.3 69.4 27.4 3.0 0.1 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.3 0.0 75.7 22.4 1.8 0.1
2nd Round 42.3% 0.5 57.7 37.8 4.4 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 12.5% 0.1 87.5 12.2 0.3
Elite Eight 4.0% 0.0 96.0 4.0 0.0
Final Four 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2 0.0
Final Game 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1