IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
St. Bonaventure
Atlantic 10
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+2.3	#124
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	62.7	#320
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.3	#168

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+2.6	#104

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	3.0%	3.1%	0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.5%	0.5%	0.0%
Average Seed	11.0	10.9	14.0

.500 or above	53.8%	55.4%	19.7%
.500 or above in Conference	22.7%	23.5%	8.1%
Conference Champion	0.7%	0.7%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	16.7%	15.9%	32.2%

First Four	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%
First Round	2.8%	3.0%	0.4%
Second Round	0.6%	0.6%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Canisius (Home) - 95.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 2	2 - 4	2 - 7
Quad 3	5 - 4	7 - 11
Quad 4	6 - 1	13 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2025	352	Canisius	W	74-56	95%
Nov 12, 2025	213	Siena	W	71-63	77%
Nov 15, 2025	184	Youngstown St.	W	71-64	74%
Nov 25, 2025	23	North Carolina	L	65-78	13%
Nov 27, 2025	158	East Carolina	W	66-64	58%
Dec 06, 2025	337	@ Buffalo	W	74-64	81%
Dec 10, 2025	227	Colgate	W	71-62	79%
Dec 13, 2025	152	Ohio	W	71-69	57%
Dec 31, 2025	60	@ Virginia Commonwealth	L	59-69	19%
Jan 10, 2026	163	Fordham	W	73-67	68%
Jan 14, 2026	110	@ Saint Joseph's	L	64-69	35%
Jan 17, 2026	187	@ La Salle	W	68-67	54%
Jan 20, 2026	94	Loyola Chicago	L	65-66	50%
Jan 23, 2026	70	Saint Louis	L	66-69	41%
Jan 28, 2026	116	@ Duquesne	L	62-66	38%
Jan 31, 2026	101	George Mason	W	63-62	50%
Feb 03, 2026	65	@ Dayton	L	60-70	21%
Feb 07, 2026	163	@ Fordham	L	70-71	48%
Feb 14, 2026	116	Duquesne	W	65-63	57%
Feb 18, 2026	110	Saint Joseph's	W	67-66	54%
Feb 21, 2026	131	@ Richmond	L	62-65	41%
Feb 28, 2026	101	@ George Mason	L	59-65	32%
Mar 04, 2026	85	@ George Washington	L	64-71	27%
Projected Record						12 - 11	6 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1					0.7	1st
2nd											0.0	0.2	0.6	0.5	0.1	0.0					1.5	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.2	1.0	1.0	0.3							2.6	3rd
4th										0.2	1.4	1.8	0.4	0.0							3.9	4th
5th									0.2	1.8	2.6	0.9	0.0								5.5	5th
6th								0.0	1.2	3.1	1.7	0.2	0.0								6.2	6th
7th							0.0	0.7	3.5	2.7	0.4										7.3	7th
8th							0.4	2.9	4.2	0.7	0.0										8.3	8th
9th					0.0	0.2	2.4	5.1	1.7	0.1											9.5	9th
10th					0.1	1.6	5.3	3.2	0.2												10.4	10th
11th				0.1	1.5	5.0	4.2	0.7	0.0												11.7	11th
12th			0.2	1.4	4.3	4.3	1.1	0.0													11.3	12th
13th	0.0	0.3	1.7	3.8	3.9	1.4	0.1														11.2	13th
14th	0.8	2.2	3.3	2.5	0.9	0.1															10.0	14th

Total	0.8	2.6	5.3	7.9	10.8	12.5	13.5	12.8	11.1	8.5	6.4	4.3	2.3	1.0	0.3	0.1						Total

Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3	74.3%	0.1		0.1
14-4	62.1%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-5	23.2%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	6.0%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.8%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.7%	0.7		0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3	0.1%		100.0%	33.9%	66.1%	7.4		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0								100.0%
14-4	0.3%		55.8%	33.3%	22.6%	8.8						0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0						0.1		33.8%
13-5	1.0%		33.7%	19.0%	14.7%	9.7			0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1						0.7		18.1%
12-6	2.3%		20.3%	16.5%	3.8%	10.6								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.0					1.8		4.5%
11-7	4.3%		13.3%	12.0%	1.3%	11.0										0.0	0.1	0.4	0.1	0.0				3.7		1.5%
10-8	6.4%		6.5%	5.9%	0.7%	11.3											0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0				5.9		0.7%
9-9	8.5%		3.9%	3.8%	0.2%	11.6											0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0				8.1		0.2%
8-10	11.1%		2.7%	2.7%		11.9											0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0			10.8
7-11	12.8%		1.4%	1.4%		12.0												0.0	0.1	0.1				12.6
6-12	13.5%		0.7%	0.7%		12.9												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			13.4
5-13	12.5%		0.1%	0.1%		23.0																0.0	0.0	12.5
4-14	10.8%		0.2%	0.2%		15.7																0.0	0.0	10.8
3-15	7.9%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	7.9
2-16	5.3%																							5.3
1-17	2.6%																							2.6
0-18	0.8%																							0.8

Total	100%		3.0%	2.5%	0.5%	11.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.4	1.4	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	97.0		0.5%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	9.0									100.0