Preseason Rankings
Dayton
Atlantic 10
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.0#65
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.3#256
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#61
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.6#59
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.6% 1.6% 0.7%
Top 6 Seed 3.9% 3.9% 0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.9% 28.0% 12.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 11.8% 11.9% 4.5%
Average Seed 9.2 9.2 10.4
.500 or above 87.4% 87.7% 59.6%
.500 or above in Conference 83.3% 83.6% 62.3%
Conference Champion 23.5% 23.7% 10.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.8% 6.2%
First Four3.4% 3.4% 1.4%
First Round26.1% 26.3% 11.0%
Second Round11.8% 11.9% 2.1%
Sweet Sixteen3.4% 3.4% 0.7%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Canisius (Home) - 99.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 5
Quad 24 - 46 - 9
Quad 38 - 214 - 11
Quad 48 - 022 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 352   Canisius W 81-56 99%    
  Nov 08, 2025 304   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 85-65 97%    
  Nov 11, 2025 45   @ Cincinnati L 63-69 29%    
  Nov 15, 2025 249   Bethune-Cookman W 79-62 93%    
  Nov 19, 2025 43   @ Marquette L 66-72 29%    
  Nov 22, 2025 329   NC Central W 81-59 98%    
  Nov 27, 2025 68   Georgetown W 71-70 52%    
  Nov 28, 2025 9   BYU L 68-77 21%    
  Dec 02, 2025 156   East Tennessee St. W 73-61 85%    
  Dec 06, 2025 44   Virginia L 61-64 40%    
  Dec 13, 2025 330   North Florida W 88-66 97%    
  Dec 16, 2025 75   Florida St. W 74-69 65%    
  Dec 20, 2025 100   Liberty W 70-63 72%    
  Dec 31, 2025 163   Fordham W 79-66 86%    
  Jan 03, 2026 94   @ Loyola Chicago W 69-68 51%    
  Jan 06, 2026 85   George Washington W 73-67 68%    
  Jan 13, 2026 116   @ Duquesne W 68-65 60%    
  Jan 16, 2026 94   Loyola Chicago W 71-65 70%    
  Jan 21, 2026 187   @ La Salle W 75-67 75%    
  Jan 24, 2026 110   @ Saint Joseph's W 70-68 57%    
  Jan 27, 2026 143   Rhode Island W 78-67 82%    
  Jan 30, 2026 70   @ Saint Louis L 69-71 43%    
  Feb 03, 2026 124   St. Bonaventure W 70-60 79%    
  Feb 06, 2026 60   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 65-68 40%    
  Feb 15, 2026 145   Davidson W 73-62 83%    
  Feb 18, 2026 101   @ George Mason W 66-65 53%    
  Feb 21, 2026 116   Duquesne W 71-62 76%    
  Feb 24, 2026 70   Saint Louis W 72-68 62%    
  Feb 27, 2026 85   @ George Washington L 70-71 49%    
  Mar 03, 2026 131   @ Richmond W 68-64 63%    
  Mar 06, 2026 60   Virginia Commonwealth W 68-65 59%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.2 5.0 6.5 5.6 2.9 0.8 23.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.3 6.2 4.9 1.9 0.3 17.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.2 5.2 3.2 0.8 0.1 12.9 3rd
4th 0.2 2.5 4.8 2.6 0.5 0.0 10.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 4.1 2.7 0.5 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.3 2.7 0.4 0.0 7.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.0 2.8 0.5 0.0 5.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 2.4 0.8 0.0 4.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.7 0.9 0.1 3.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.3 1.8 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.6 2.8 4.4 6.1 8.5 10.2 11.7 12.0 12.1 10.7 8.5 5.9 2.9 0.8 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 100.0% 2.9    2.9 0.1
16-2 95.1% 5.6    4.9 0.7 0.0
15-3 76.7% 6.5    4.3 2.0 0.2
14-4 46.5% 5.0    2.4 2.0 0.5 0.1
13-5 17.9% 2.2    0.6 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.5% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 23.5% 23.5 16.0 5.8 1.5 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 96.6% 62.1% 34.5% 4.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 91.1%
17-1 2.9% 92.4% 53.1% 39.3% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 83.9%
16-2 5.9% 82.0% 45.4% 36.6% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.5 1.1 67.0%
15-3 8.5% 65.2% 37.1% 28.2% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.7 1.1 0.0 3.0 44.8%
14-4 10.7% 48.1% 30.5% 17.5% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.6 1.8 0.2 5.5 25.2%
13-5 12.1% 30.9% 21.6% 9.3% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.0 0.3 0.0 8.3 11.8%
12-6 12.0% 20.1% 16.3% 3.8% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 0.4 0.0 9.6 4.5%
11-7 11.7% 12.8% 11.4% 1.4% 11.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 10.2 1.6%
10-8 10.2% 5.8% 5.5% 0.3% 11.5 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 9.6 0.3%
9-9 8.5% 3.5% 3.5% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.3
8-10 6.1% 3.4% 3.3% 0.1% 12.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.9 0.1%
7-11 4.4% 0.8% 0.8% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4
6-12 2.8% 0.8% 0.8% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8
5-13 1.6% 1.6
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15 0.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 27.9% 18.2% 9.6% 9.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.8 2.3 3.5 6.2 8.2 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 72.1 11.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 3.5 50.0 50.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 2.0 100.0