Preseason Rankings
Michigan St.
Big Ten
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.9#21
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.2#179
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.9#41
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+9.0#10
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.1% 1.1% 0.5%
#1 Seed 5.6% 5.6% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 13.3% 13.4% 1.9%
Top 4 Seed 33.1% 33.5% 5.7%
Top 6 Seed 51.7% 52.2% 15.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 77.8% 78.3% 44.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 76.4% 76.9% 43.5%
Average Seed 5.4 5.3 7.5
.500 or above 87.6% 88.1% 53.3%
.500 or above in Conference 75.1% 75.5% 45.1%
Conference Champion 7.0% 7.1% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 1.0% 4.4%
First Four4.7% 4.6% 10.1%
First Round75.6% 76.1% 39.7%
Second Round58.3% 58.8% 27.8%
Sweet Sixteen30.9% 31.2% 10.1%
Elite Eight14.1% 14.2% 3.8%
Final Four6.2% 6.3% 1.0%
Championship Game2.7% 2.8% 0.5%
National Champion1.3% 1.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Colgate (Home) - 98.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 37 - 9
Quad 26 - 213 - 11
Quad 34 - 017 - 11
Quad 45 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 227   Colgate W 81-58 99%    
  Nov 08, 2025 17   Arkansas W 73-71 57%    
  Nov 13, 2025 159   San Jose St. W 78-59 96%    
  Nov 18, 2025 7   Kentucky L 74-77 38%    
  Nov 21, 2025 310   Detroit Mercy W 82-55 99%    
  Nov 25, 2025 158   East Carolina W 76-60 92%    
  Nov 27, 2025 23   North Carolina W 75-74 52%    
  Dec 02, 2025 34   Iowa W 77-72 68%    
  Dec 06, 2025 3   Duke L 68-71 39%    
  Dec 13, 2025 90   @ Penn St. W 76-69 73%    
  Dec 16, 2025 196   Toledo W 85-64 97%    
  Dec 20, 2025 201   Oakland W 76-58 94%    
  Dec 29, 2025 165   Cornell W 87-67 95%    
  Jan 02, 2026 59   @ Nebraska W 72-69 62%    
  Jan 05, 2026 29   USC W 75-70 65%    
  Jan 08, 2026 72   Northwestern W 72-61 83%    
  Jan 13, 2026 33   Indiana W 73-68 67%    
  Jan 17, 2026 48   @ Washington W 73-71 56%    
  Jan 20, 2026 28   @ Oregon L 70-72 45%    
  Jan 24, 2026 40   Maryland W 74-68 69%    
  Jan 27, 2026 82   @ Rutgers W 74-68 70%    
  Jan 30, 2026 6   Michigan L 72-73 48%    
  Feb 04, 2026 87   @ Minnesota W 69-62 72%    
  Feb 07, 2026 15   Illinois W 77-76 55%    
  Feb 13, 2026 26   @ Wisconsin L 70-72 43%    
  Feb 17, 2026 13   UCLA W 68-67 54%    
  Feb 22, 2026 27   Ohio St. W 74-70 63%    
  Feb 26, 2026 2   @ Purdue L 65-76 19%    
  Mar 01, 2026 33   @ Indiana L 70-71 49%    
  Mar 05, 2026 82   Rutgers W 77-65 85%    
  Mar 08, 2026 6   @ Michigan L 69-76 29%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.0 1.7 0.9 0.2 7.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.0 3.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 9.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.4 3.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 9.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.3 3.8 1.4 0.2 9.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.8 4.2 1.6 0.1 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.2 1.8 3.9 2.3 0.2 8.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 3.9 2.6 0.5 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.8 3.2 0.9 0.0 7.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 3.4 1.0 0.1 6.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 2.6 2.1 0.3 5.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.0 2.0 0.5 0.0 4.8 11th
12th 0.1 1.0 2.1 0.9 0.1 4.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.2 0.2 3.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.4 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9 17th
18th 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 18th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0 2.9 4.3 6.2 7.8 10.2 10.6 11.0 11.2 10.3 8.4 6.3 3.8 2.1 1.0 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 96.3% 0.9    0.8 0.1 0.0
18-2 81.2% 1.7    1.3 0.4 0.0
17-3 51.2% 2.0    1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0
16-4 25.0% 1.6    0.5 0.7 0.3 0.1
15-5 6.1% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.0% 7.0 3.8 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 53.9% 46.1% 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.0% 100.0% 28.4% 71.6% 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.1% 100.0% 29.6% 70.4% 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.8% 100.0% 24.1% 75.9% 1.9 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 6.3% 100.0% 17.4% 82.6% 2.5 1.2 2.1 1.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 8.4% 100.0% 11.1% 88.9% 3.2 0.6 1.8 2.9 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 10.3% 100.0% 8.7% 91.3% 4.1 0.2 0.9 2.6 2.8 2.0 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 11.2% 99.6% 5.1% 94.5% 5.1 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.4 2.9 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
12-8 11.0% 96.9% 2.6% 94.3% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 2.3 2.4 2.1 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.3 96.8%
11-9 10.6% 93.0% 1.4% 91.6% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.3 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.7 92.9%
10-10 10.2% 80.5% 1.0% 79.5% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.5 0.9 0.0 2.0 80.3%
9-11 7.8% 52.3% 0.4% 51.9% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.1 3.7 52.1%
8-12 6.2% 23.0% 0.3% 22.7% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 4.8 22.8%
7-13 4.3% 7.9% 0.3% 7.6% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 3.9 7.6%
6-14 2.9% 0.5% 0.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 2.9 0.5%
5-15 2.0% 2.0
4-16 1.0% 1.0
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 77.8% 6.0% 71.8% 5.4 5.6 7.7 10.0 9.9 9.7 8.8 7.6 6.0 5.0 4.4 3.0 0.2 22.2 76.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0