IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Purdue Fort Wayne
Horizon
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-2.1	#193
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	74.1	#49
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.8	#192

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.3	#213

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	13.4%	20.7%	12.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.7	13.5	14.2

.500 or above	58.5%	83.6%	55.0%
.500 or above in Conference	74.3%	88.1%	72.4%
Conference Champion	18.7%	30.2%	17.1%
Last Place in Conference	2.0%	0.5%	2.3%

First Four	1.2%	0.6%	1.3%
First Round	13.6%	21.1%	12.6%
Second Round	0.7%	1.7%	0.6%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Grand Canyon (Away) - 12.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 2	1 - 5
Quad 3	3 - 4	3 - 9
Quad 4	13 - 5	16 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	78	@ Grand Canyon	L	72-84	12%
Nov 07, 2025	27	@ Ohio St.	L	66-86	3%
Nov 12, 2025	282	@ Western Michigan	W	76-74	56%
Nov 18, 2025	89	@ Utah	L	70-81	16%
Nov 21, 2025	70	@ Saint Louis	L	68-81	11%
Nov 25, 2025	351	Chicago St.	W	82-68	88%
Dec 03, 2025	201	@ Oakland	L	69-72	40%
Dec 06, 2025	266	Northern Kentucky	W	75-68	71%
Dec 10, 2025	292	Eastern Michigan	W	80-72	76%
Dec 14, 2025	310	Detroit Mercy	W	78-69	79%
Dec 21, 2025	63	@ Notre Dame	L	64-78	11%
Dec 29, 2025	216	@ Wisconsin-Milwaukee	L	75-77	44%
Jan 01, 2026	306	Green Bay	W	82-73	77%
Jan 04, 2026	223	Cleveland St.	W	73-69	65%
Jan 07, 2026	184	@ Youngstown St.	L	74-77	39%
Jan 11, 2026	203	@ Robert Morris	L	73-76	40%
Jan 18, 2026	216	Wisconsin-Milwaukee	W	78-74	63%
Jan 21, 2026	310	@ Detroit Mercy	W	75-72	61%
Jan 25, 2026	359	@ IU Indianapolis	W	78-68	79%
Jan 28, 2026	201	Oakland	W	72-69	60%
Jan 31, 2026	203	Robert Morris	W	76-73	61%
Feb 04, 2026	184	Youngstown St.	W	77-74	58%
Feb 07, 2026	206	@ Wright St.	L	74-77	42%
Feb 12, 2026	306	@ Green Bay	W	79-76	60%
Feb 15, 2026	359	IU Indianapolis	W	81-65	90%
Feb 18, 2026	266	@ Northern Kentucky	W	72-71	52%
Feb 22, 2026	223	@ Cleveland St.	L	70-72	44%
Feb 25, 2026	206	Wright St.	W	77-74	61%
Projected Record						15 - 13	12 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Horizon Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.0	0.3	1.6	3.7	4.7	4.1	2.7	1.1	0.3		18.7	1st
2nd												0.0	0.7	3.0	4.9	4.2	1.9	0.5	0.0				15.1	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.6	3.1	4.8	3.0	0.7	0.1						12.3	3rd
4th										0.0	0.6	3.2	5.1	2.2	0.4	0.0							11.5	4th
5th									0.1	0.7	3.2	4.3	2.0	0.2	0.0								10.6	5th
6th								0.0	0.6	3.1	3.6	1.6	0.2	0.0									9.1	6th
7th							0.1	0.5	1.9	3.1	1.2	0.2											6.9	7th
8th					0.0	0.1	0.6	2.1	2.5	1.1	0.1												6.5	8th
9th				0.0	0.1	0.7	1.6	1.7	0.7	0.1													5.0	9th
10th		0.0	0.0	0.2	0.7	1.1	0.7	0.3	0.0														3.0	10th
11th	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0															1.1	11th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	1.1	2.1	3.1	4.7	5.8	8.1	8.7	9.9	11.1	10.5	9.9	8.6	6.7	4.6	2.8	1.1	0.3			Total

Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.3		0.3
19-1	100.0%	1.1		1.1	0.0
18-2	98.7%	2.7		2.6	0.2
17-3	89.1%	4.1		3.5	0.6	0.0
16-4	70.9%	4.7		3.1	1.4	0.2	0.0
15-5	43.2%	3.7		1.6	1.6	0.5	0.0
14-6	15.8%	1.6		0.4	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0
13-7	3.1%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.4%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
11-9	0.1%	0.0						0.0
10-10	0.0%

Total	18.7%	18.7		12.7	4.7	1.2	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.3%		56.5%	56.5%		11.5								0.0				0.1	0.1	0.0				0.1
19-1	1.1%		52.8%	52.2%	0.6%	12.3											0.0	0.0	0.3	0.2	0.0			0.5		1.3%
18-2	2.8%		48.3%	48.3%		12.8												0.1	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.0		1.4
17-3	4.6%		39.1%	39.1%		13.2												0.0	0.4	0.8	0.5	0.1	0.0	2.8
16-4	6.7%		29.3%	29.3%		13.7												0.0	0.2	0.7	0.7	0.3	0.0	4.7
15-5	8.6%		24.5%	24.5%		14.2													0.1	0.4	0.9	0.7	0.1	6.5
14-6	9.9%		18.5%	18.5%		15.4													0.0	0.2	0.6	0.7	0.4	8.1
13-7	10.5%		13.5%	13.5%		16.5														0.1	0.4	0.7	0.5	9.1
12-8	11.1%		8.3%	8.3%		17.9														0.0	0.1	0.5	0.5	10.2
11-9	9.9%		6.6%	6.6%		17.9														0.0	0.0	0.3	0.4	9.2
10-10	8.7%		3.4%	3.4%		19.6															0.0	0.0	0.3	8.4
9-11	8.1%		1.7%	1.7%		16.8																0.0	0.1	7.9
8-12	5.8%		1.7%	1.7%		16.0																	0.1	5.7
7-13	4.7%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	4.7
6-14	3.1%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	3.1
5-15	2.1%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.0	2.1
4-16	1.1%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.0	1.1
3-17	0.5%																							0.5
2-18	0.2%																							0.2
1-19	0.1%																							0.1
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		13.4%	13.4%	0.0%	14.7								0.0			0.0	0.2	1.6	2.9	3.5	3.3	2.5	86.6		0.0%