Preseason Rankings
Detroit Mercy
Horizon
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-8.4#310
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.3#206
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.7#306
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#296
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 5.5% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.7 14.9 15.3
.500 or above 16.5% 36.1% 13.3%
.500 or above in Conference 27.0% 41.3% 24.6%
Conference Champion 1.6% 3.1% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 15.7% 9.6% 16.7%
First Four0.7% 1.2% 0.6%
First Round2.2% 5.5% 1.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois-Chicago (Away) - 14.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 61 - 10
Quad 48 - 810 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 153   @ Illinois-Chicago L 66-78 14%    
  Nov 07, 2025 63   @ Notre Dame L 57-78 3%    
  Nov 15, 2025 196   @ Toledo L 70-79 20%    
  Nov 18, 2025 292   Eastern Michigan W 72-70 56%    
  Nov 21, 2025 21   @ Michigan St. L 55-82 1%    
  Nov 23, 2025 83   @ DePaul L 61-79 5%    
  Nov 29, 2025 333   @ Niagara L 66-67 46%    
  Dec 03, 2025 359   IU Indianapolis W 73-64 80%    
  Dec 06, 2025 223   @ Cleveland St. L 63-71 25%    
  Dec 14, 2025 193   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 69-78 21%    
  Dec 29, 2025 184   @ Youngstown St. L 66-76 20%    
  Jan 02, 2026 203   Robert Morris L 69-72 40%    
  Jan 09, 2026 206   Wright St. L 70-73 41%    
  Jan 11, 2026 223   Cleveland St. L 66-68 44%    
  Jan 15, 2026 266   @ Northern Kentucky L 65-71 32%    
  Jan 17, 2026 359   @ IU Indianapolis W 70-67 61%    
  Jan 21, 2026 193   Purdue Fort Wayne L 72-75 39%    
  Jan 24, 2026 201   Oakland L 65-68 40%    
  Jan 30, 2026 266   Northern Kentucky W 68-67 50%    
  Feb 04, 2026 216   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 68-76 25%    
  Feb 07, 2026 306   @ Green Bay L 71-74 40%    
  Feb 12, 2026 206   @ Wright St. L 67-76 24%    
  Feb 15, 2026 184   Youngstown St. L 69-73 38%    
  Feb 20, 2026 216   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 71-73 43%    
  Feb 22, 2026 306   Green Bay W 74-71 59%    
  Feb 28, 2026 201   @ Oakland L 62-71 24%    
Projected Record 9 - 17 7 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.6 0.6 0.1 4.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.3 2.1 0.5 0.0 5.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.7 2.8 0.8 0.0 7.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.7 3.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 0.2 1.3 4.2 3.8 1.3 0.1 10.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.8 4.4 1.4 0.1 0.0 13.6 8th
9th 0.2 1.3 3.8 5.6 4.2 1.3 0.2 16.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 2.8 5.1 5.0 3.0 0.8 0.1 17.8 10th
11th 0.4 1.5 2.5 3.0 1.8 0.7 0.2 10.2 11th
Total 0.4 1.6 3.3 6.0 8.2 10.0 11.4 11.3 11.2 9.7 8.3 6.6 4.9 3.2 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-3 89.7% 0.2    0.1 0.0
16-4 84.1% 0.4    0.3 0.1
15-5 39.8% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
14-6 17.2% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 4.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.1% 25.3% 25.3% 13.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.2% 17.2% 17.2% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-4 0.5% 32.0% 32.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-5 1.1% 13.9% 13.9% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.0
14-6 2.0% 14.4% 14.4% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.7
13-7 3.2% 9.2% 9.2% 17.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.9
12-8 4.9% 8.0% 8.0% 17.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 4.5
11-9 6.6% 6.3% 6.3% 19.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 6.2
10-10 8.3% 3.1% 3.1% 16.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 8.0
9-11 9.7% 1.2% 1.2% 19.0 0.1 9.6
8-12 11.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 11.1
7-13 11.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.2
6-14 11.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.4
5-15 10.0% 10.0
4-16 8.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.2
3-17 6.0% 6.0
2-18 3.3% 3.3
1-19 1.6% 1.6
0-20 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 16.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.1 97.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%