IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Youngstown St.
Horizon
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-1.7	#184
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	72.0	#70
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.4	#216

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.3	#175

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	15.4%	23.3%	14.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.8	13.5	14.3

.500 or above	69.6%	89.0%	66.5%
.500 or above in Conference	77.0%	88.3%	75.3%
Conference Champion	20.6%	32.4%	18.7%
Last Place in Conference	1.7%	0.8%	1.8%

First Four	1.5%	1.1%	1.6%
First Round	15.6%	23.4%	14.3%
Second Round	0.9%	2.0%	0.7%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Pittsburgh (Away) - 13.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 3	3 - 5	4 - 8
Quad 4	14 - 5	17 - 13

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	80	@ Pittsburgh	L	66-77	14%
Nov 07, 2025	78	@ Grand Canyon	L	70-82	14%
Nov 15, 2025	124	@ St. Bonaventure	L	64-71	26%
Nov 19, 2025	196	@ Toledo	L	76-79	41%
Nov 23, 2025	232	UNC Greensboro	W	69-67	58%
Nov 24, 2025	243	Georgia Southern	W	77-74	60%
Nov 28, 2025	351	Chicago St.	W	80-66	89%
Dec 03, 2025	206	Wright St.	W	76-72	63%
Dec 06, 2025	359	@ IU Indianapolis	W	76-66	81%
Dec 17, 2025	203	@ Robert Morris	L	72-74	42%
Dec 20, 2025	332	South Carolina Upstate	W	85-73	84%
Dec 29, 2025	310	Detroit Mercy	W	76-66	80%
Jan 01, 2026	201	Oakland	W	71-67	62%
Jan 04, 2026	266	@ Northern Kentucky	W	70-69	53%
Jan 07, 2026	193	Purdue Fort Wayne	W	77-74	61%
Jan 15, 2026	206	@ Wright St.	L	73-75	42%
Jan 17, 2026	223	@ Cleveland St.	L	69-70	46%
Jan 22, 2026	306	Green Bay	W	80-71	79%
Jan 24, 2026	216	Wisconsin-Milwaukee	W	76-72	64%
Jan 30, 2026	359	IU Indianapolis	W	79-63	91%
Feb 04, 2026	193	@ Purdue Fort Wayne	L	74-77	42%
Feb 07, 2026	203	Robert Morris	W	75-71	62%
Feb 12, 2026	201	@ Oakland	L	68-70	42%
Feb 15, 2026	310	@ Detroit Mercy	W	73-69	62%
Feb 18, 2026	223	Cleveland St.	W	72-67	65%
Feb 21, 2026	266	Northern Kentucky	W	73-66	72%
Feb 25, 2026	216	@ Wisconsin-Milwaukee	L	73-75	45%
Feb 28, 2026	306	@ Green Bay	W	77-74	60%
Projected Record						16 - 12	12 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Horizon Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.3	1.7	4.0	5.0	4.6	2.9	1.6	0.4		20.6	1st
2nd												0.0	0.7	3.0	5.4	4.2	2.3	0.5	0.1				16.2	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.7	3.2	5.0	3.0	0.9	0.1						12.9	3rd
4th										0.0	0.6	3.2	4.5	2.4	0.4	0.1							11.1	4th
5th									0.0	0.7	3.0	4.3	1.9	0.3									10.2	5th
6th								0.0	0.5	2.9	3.5	1.5	0.2	0.0									8.6	6th
7th							0.0	0.6	2.0	3.0	1.4	0.1											7.1	7th
8th						0.1	0.6	1.8	2.3	0.9	0.1												5.7	8th
9th					0.1	0.6	1.4	1.5	0.6	0.1													4.2	9th
10th		0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	0.7	0.6	0.2	0.0														2.4	10th
11th	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.0																0.9	11th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.5	1.0	1.6	2.7	4.1	5.5	7.5	8.6	9.8	10.6	10.9	10.5	9.2	7.4	5.1	3.0	1.6	0.4			Total

Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.4		0.4
19-1	100.0%	1.6		1.5	0.0
18-2	98.1%	2.9		2.8	0.1
17-3	90.1%	4.6		3.9	0.7	0.0
16-4	68.2%	5.0		3.3	1.6	0.2	0.0
15-5	43.4%	4.0		1.7	1.8	0.4	0.1	0.0
14-6	16.6%	1.7		0.4	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0
13-7	2.7%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.3%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	20.6%	20.6		14.0	5.1	1.2	0.3	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.4%		68.4%	68.4%		11.2							0.0			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.1
19-1	1.6%		49.9%	49.9%		12.1											0.0	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.0			0.8
18-2	3.0%		47.1%	47.1%		12.8												0.0	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.0		1.6
17-3	5.1%		42.2%	42.2%		13.2												0.0	0.4	1.0	0.6	0.1		3.0
16-4	7.4%		32.4%	32.4%		13.8												0.0	0.2	0.8	1.0	0.4	0.1	5.0
15-5	9.2%		21.6%	21.6%		14.5													0.1	0.3	0.8	0.7	0.1	7.2
14-6	10.5%		20.7%	20.7%		15.5													0.0	0.2	0.7	1.1	0.4	8.4
13-7	10.9%		13.5%	13.5%		17.6														0.0	0.4	0.7	0.6	9.4
12-8	10.6%		11.3%	11.3%		17.4														0.0	0.1	0.6	0.6	9.4
11-9	9.8%		7.0%	7.0%		17.1														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	9.1
10-10	8.6%		4.8%	4.8%		17.4															0.0	0.1	0.4	8.2
9-11	7.5%		3.3%	3.3%		18.6																0.0	0.3	7.3
8-12	5.5%		1.5%	1.5%		17.3																0.0	0.1	5.4
7-13	4.1%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.0	4.1
6-14	2.7%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.0	2.7
5-15	1.6%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	1.5
4-16	1.0%																							1.0
3-17	0.5%																							0.5
2-18	0.1%																							0.1
1-19	0.1%																							0.1
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		15.4%	15.4%	0.0%	14.8							0.0			0.0	0.0	0.4	1.7	3.1	3.9	3.9	3.0	84.6		0.0%