IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Wright St.
Horizon
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-2.6	#206
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	68.4	#175
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.4	#151

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.0	#275

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	12.4%	19.4%	11.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.9	13.6	14.4

.500 or above	59.9%	82.1%	56.0%
.500 or above in Conference	71.7%	84.2%	69.5%
Conference Champion	16.3%	27.4%	14.3%
Last Place in Conference	2.4%	0.9%	2.7%

First Four	1.3%	0.7%	1.5%
First Round	12.4%	19.6%	11.1%
Second Round	0.6%	1.4%	0.4%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: California (Away) - 15.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 3	3 - 6	4 - 9
Quad 4	13 - 6	16 - 15

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2025	91	@ California	L	68-79	15%
Nov 11, 2025	196	Toledo	W	79-76	60%
Nov 15, 2025	148	Radford	L	67-70	38%
Nov 16, 2025	127	Kent St.	L	68-73	33%
Nov 25, 2025	348	@ Stetson	W	78-71	72%
Nov 28, 2025	66	@ Butler	L	67-82	10%
Dec 03, 2025	184	@ Youngstown St.	L	72-76	37%
Dec 07, 2025	306	Green Bay	W	80-71	77%
Dec 13, 2025	185	@ Marshall	L	72-76	37%
Dec 16, 2025	125	Miami (OH)	L	74-76	44%
Dec 22, 2025	292	Eastern Michigan	W	78-70	74%
Dec 29, 2025	201	Oakland	W	71-68	59%
Jan 01, 2026	216	Wisconsin-Milwaukee	W	76-73	62%
Jan 04, 2026	359	@ IU Indianapolis	W	76-67	78%
Jan 09, 2026	310	@ Detroit Mercy	W	73-70	59%
Jan 11, 2026	201	@ Oakland	L	68-71	39%
Jan 15, 2026	184	Youngstown St.	W	75-73	58%
Jan 21, 2026	223	Cleveland St.	W	72-68	63%
Jan 24, 2026	266	Northern Kentucky	W	73-67	69%
Jan 30, 2026	216	@ Wisconsin-Milwaukee	L	73-76	42%
Feb 01, 2026	306	@ Green Bay	W	77-74	58%
Feb 04, 2026	203	@ Robert Morris	L	71-74	40%
Feb 07, 2026	193	Purdue Fort Wayne	W	77-74	58%
Feb 12, 2026	310	Detroit Mercy	W	76-67	76%
Feb 15, 2026	223	@ Cleveland St.	L	69-71	42%
Feb 19, 2026	359	IU Indianapolis	W	79-64	89%
Feb 22, 2026	203	Robert Morris	W	74-71	58%
Feb 25, 2026	193	@ Purdue Fort Wayne	L	74-77	39%
Feb 28, 2026	266	@ Northern Kentucky	W	71-70	50%
Projected Record						15 - 14	12 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Horizon Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.0	0.3	1.6	3.3	4.2	3.5	1.9	1.1	0.3		16.3	1st
2nd												0.0	0.7	2.6	4.6	3.8	1.7	0.5	0.0				14.0	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.8	3.3	4.7	2.8	0.7	0.1	0.0					12.4	3rd
4th										0.0	0.6	3.3	5.0	2.3	0.4	0.0							11.7	4th
5th									0.1	0.7	3.1	4.5	2.0	0.3									10.6	5th
6th								0.1	0.8	3.0	4.0	1.6	0.2										9.7	6th
7th							0.1	0.7	2.4	3.2	1.5	0.1											8.0	7th
8th					0.0	0.1	0.7	2.3	2.6	1.2	0.1												7.0	8th
9th				0.0	0.2	0.9	1.7	1.8	0.6	0.1													5.4	9th
10th			0.1	0.3	0.8	1.1	1.0	0.3	0.0														3.7	10th
11th	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.1																1.3	11th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8	1.4	2.3	3.6	5.1	6.4	8.4	9.4	10.2	11.2	10.3	9.3	7.9	6.0	4.0	1.9	1.1	0.3			Total

Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.3		0.3
19-1	100.0%	1.1		1.1
18-2	99.3%	1.9		1.8	0.1
17-3	88.1%	3.5		2.8	0.7	0.0
16-4	70.8%	4.2		2.7	1.4	0.1	0.0
15-5	41.9%	3.3		1.4	1.5	0.4	0.0	0.0
14-6	16.7%	1.6		0.4	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0
13-7	3.3%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.2%	0.0						0.0
11-9	0.1%	0.0						0.0
10-10	0.0%

Total	16.3%	16.3		10.6	4.4	1.1	0.2	0.1

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.3%		62.1%	62.1%		11.6								0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0				0.1
19-1	1.1%		49.9%	49.9%		12.2										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0			0.6
18-2	1.9%		46.1%	46.1%		12.8												0.0	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	1.0
17-3	4.0%		35.2%	35.2%		13.3													0.3	0.5	0.4	0.1		2.6
16-4	6.0%		30.7%	30.7%		13.7													0.2	0.6	0.6	0.4	0.0	4.1
15-5	7.9%		24.7%	24.7%		14.4													0.0	0.4	0.8	0.6	0.1	5.9
14-6	9.3%		18.1%	18.1%		15.4													0.0	0.1	0.7	0.7	0.3	7.6
13-7	10.3%		13.8%	13.8%		16.7													0.0	0.0	0.3	0.7	0.6	8.9
12-8	11.2%		10.0%	10.0%		17.8														0.0	0.1	0.6	0.6	10.1
11-9	10.2%		6.5%	6.5%		16.8															0.1	0.3	0.4	9.6
10-10	9.4%		3.2%	3.2%		18.3															0.0	0.1	0.3	9.1
9-11	8.4%		2.0%	2.0%		16.6																0.0	0.2	8.2
8-12	6.4%		1.4%	1.4%		16.0																	0.1	6.3
7-13	5.1%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																	0.1	5.0
6-14	3.6%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	3.6
5-15	2.3%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	2.2
4-16	1.4%																							1.4
3-17	0.8%																							0.8
2-18	0.3%																							0.3
1-19	0.1%																							0.1
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		12.4%	12.4%	0.0%	14.9								0.0		0.0	0.0	0.2	1.2	2.2	3.3	3.5	2.6	87.6		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	10.5										50.0	50.0