IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Arizona St.
Big 12
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+8.3	#69
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	70.8	#105
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+4.3	#67

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+4.0	#71

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%
Top 4 Seed	1.8%	1.9%	0.4%
Top 6 Seed	5.3%	5.5%	1.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid	21.3%	22.2%	5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	20.9%	21.8%	4.9%
Average Seed	8.1	8.1	8.6

.500 or above	43.7%	45.2%	16.9%
.500 or above in Conference	29.3%	30.1%	13.5%
Conference Champion	0.6%	0.6%	0.1%
Last Place in Conference	13.1%	12.3%	27.4%

First Four	4.6%	4.8%	1.6%
First Round	18.9%	19.8%	4.1%
Second Round	10.5%	11.0%	1.6%
Sweet Sixteen	3.1%	3.2%	0.3%
Elite Eight	1.0%	1.1%	0.1%
Final Four	0.3%	0.3%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Southern Utah (Home) - 94.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	1 - 7	1 - 7
Quad 1b	2 - 4	3 - 11
Quad 2	4 - 4	6 - 14
Quad 3	4 - 1	10 - 16
Quad 4	4 - 0	14 - 16

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2025	271	Southern Utah	W	82-65	95%
Nov 09, 2025	269	Utah Tech	W	81-64	94%
Nov 14, 2025	18	Gonzaga	L	75-80	32%
Nov 17, 2025	283	Georgia St.	W	84-66	95%
Nov 21, 2025	141	@ Hawaii	W	72-68	64%
Nov 24, 2025	38	Texas	L	71-76	33%
Dec 06, 2025	47	Oklahoma	L	73-76	39%
Dec 09, 2025	254	Northern Arizona	W	80-64	92%
Dec 13, 2025	106	Santa Clara	W	77-73	63%
Dec 17, 2025	13	@ UCLA	L	63-75	15%
Dec 21, 2025	117	Oregon St.	W	74-66	76%
Jan 03, 2026	84	Colorado	W	74-69	66%
Jan 07, 2026	9	@ BYU	L	69-82	13%
Jan 10, 2026	57	Kansas St.	W	72-70	56%
Jan 14, 2026	11	@ Arizona	L	71-84	14%
Jan 18, 2026	1	@ Houston	L	55-74	6%
Jan 21, 2026	58	West Virginia	W	69-67	56%
Jan 24, 2026	45	Cincinnati	L	68-69	48%
Jan 27, 2026	74	@ Central Florida	L	77-79	42%
Jan 31, 2026	11	Arizona	L	74-81	29%
Feb 04, 2026	89	@ Utah	L	74-75	49%
Feb 07, 2026	84	@ Colorado	L	71-72	46%
Feb 10, 2026	73	Oklahoma St.	W	79-76	62%
Feb 17, 2026	12	Texas Tech	L	69-76	28%
Feb 21, 2026	24	@ Baylor	L	65-75	20%
Feb 24, 2026	56	@ TCU	L	68-72	36%
Feb 28, 2026	89	Utah	W	77-71	67%
Mar 03, 2026	14	Kansas	L	70-76	31%
Mar 07, 2026	20	@ Iowa St.	L	67-78	18%
Projected Record						14 - 15	7 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big 12 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0			0.6	1st
2nd												0.0	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.2	0.0				1.3	2nd
3rd												0.1	0.6	0.9	0.3	0.0					1.9	3rd
4th										0.0	0.2	1.1	1.5	0.5	0.0						3.3	4th
5th										0.1	1.1	2.1	0.8	0.1							4.2	5th
6th									0.0	0.9	2.8	1.3	0.1								5.2	6th
7th								0.0	0.5	2.9	2.6	0.5	0.0								6.5	7th
8th								0.2	2.4	3.4	1.0	0.1									7.1	8th
9th							0.1	1.7	3.9	1.7	0.1										7.5	9th
10th						0.0	1.0	4.2	3.4	0.3	0.0										8.9	10th
11th					0.0	0.4	3.5	4.3	0.9	0.0											9.2	11th
12th					0.2	2.8	5.0	1.8	0.1												9.8	12th
13th				0.1	1.8	4.8	2.3	0.3	0.0												9.3	13th
14th		0.0	0.1	1.3	4.2	2.9	0.5	0.0													9.1	14th
15th		0.2	1.2	3.7	2.8	0.6															8.5	15th
16th	0.5	1.8	2.8	1.8	0.5	0.0															7.3	16th

Total	0.5	2.0	4.1	6.9	9.5	11.6	12.4	12.5	11.3	9.5	7.8	5.2	3.2	1.9	1.0	0.4	0.2	0.0				Total

Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0	0.0
16-2	85.3%	0.2		0.1	0.1
15-3	51.5%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0
14-4	14.7%	0.1		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0
13-5	1.5%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.0%
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.6%	0.6		0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1	0.0%		100.0%	20.0%	80.0%	1.6		0.0	0.0	0.0																100.0%
16-2	0.2%		100.0%	14.7%	85.3%	2.8		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0													100.0%
15-3	0.4%		100.0%	16.8%	83.2%	3.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0												100.0%
14-4	1.0%		99.3%	9.7%	89.6%	4.6		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0								0.0		99.2%
13-5	1.9%		97.8%	3.7%	94.1%	5.7		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0						0.0		97.7%
12-6	3.2%		95.8%	3.3%	92.5%	7.0				0.0	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.7	0.5	0.4	0.3	0.0						0.1		95.7%
11-7	5.2%		83.5%	1.2%	82.3%	8.0				0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.9	0.9	1.0	0.7	0.2						0.9		83.3%
10-8	7.8%		61.4%	0.5%	60.9%	9.0					0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.8	1.2	1.3	0.7	0.0					3.0		61.2%
9-9	9.5%		37.7%	0.4%	37.3%	9.6				0.0		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.6	1.1	1.0	0.1					5.9		37.5%
8-10	11.3%		13.4%	0.2%	13.2%	10.3						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.6	0.7	0.0					9.8		13.2%
7-11	12.5%		3.4%	0.1%	3.4%	10.8									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1					12.1		3.4%
6-12	12.4%		0.5%		0.5%	10.9											0.0	0.0	0.0					12.3		0.5%
5-13	11.6%																							11.6
4-14	9.5%																							9.5
3-15	6.9%																							6.9
2-16	4.1%																							4.1
1-17	2.0%																							2.0
0-18	0.5%																							0.5

Total	100%		21.3%	0.6%	20.8%	8.1		0.1	0.3	0.6	0.9	1.4	2.0	2.5	2.9	3.4	4.1	2.9	0.2					78.7		20.9%