Preseason Rankings
Arkansas
Southeastern
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+17.0#17
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.6#82
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.8#23
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.2#14
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.7% 1.8% 0.0%
#1 Seed 7.5% 7.6% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 17.7% 18.0% 2.6%
Top 4 Seed 39.3% 39.8% 11.8%
Top 6 Seed 57.2% 57.9% 25.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 79.2% 79.7% 51.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 77.2% 77.7% 50.1%
Average Seed 4.9 4.9 6.9
.500 or above 88.8% 89.3% 64.7%
.500 or above in Conference 75.3% 75.8% 49.5%
Conference Champion 12.2% 12.3% 3.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 2.0% 3.7%
First Four3.7% 3.6% 6.0%
First Round77.6% 78.2% 49.5%
Second Round62.7% 63.2% 36.2%
Sweet Sixteen35.5% 36.0% 11.8%
Elite Eight17.2% 17.5% 4.0%
Final Four8.2% 8.3% 2.2%
Championship Game3.8% 3.8% 1.1%
National Champion1.5% 1.5% 0.7%

Next Game: Southern (Home) - 98.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 10
Quad 25 - 112 - 11
Quad 33 - 016 - 11
Quad 46 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 189   Southern W 83-61 98%    
  Nov 08, 2025 21   @ Michigan St. L 71-73 43%    
  Nov 11, 2025 354   Central Arkansas W 89-55 99.9%   
  Nov 14, 2025 171   Samford W 89-68 97%    
  Nov 18, 2025 164   Winthrop W 90-69 97%    
  Nov 21, 2025 238   Jackson St. W 86-62 98%    
  Nov 27, 2025 3   Duke L 70-75 32%    
  Dec 03, 2025 10   Louisville W 77-75 56%    
  Dec 06, 2025 186   Fresno St. W 88-66 97%    
  Dec 13, 2025 12   Texas Tech L 72-73 47%    
  Dec 16, 2025 242   Queens W 88-64 98%    
  Dec 20, 2025 1   Houston L 62-69 26%    
  Dec 28, 2025 132   James Madison W 80-62 94%    
  Jan 03, 2026 16   Tennessee W 69-66 59%    
  Jan 07, 2026 30   @ Mississippi L 73-74 50%    
  Jan 10, 2026 22   @ Auburn L 74-76 44%    
  Jan 14, 2026 71   South Carolina W 76-64 85%    
  Jan 17, 2026 52   @ Georgia W 74-70 62%    
  Jan 20, 2026 41   Vanderbilt W 80-73 73%    
  Jan 24, 2026 53   LSU W 79-69 79%    
  Jan 27, 2026 47   @ Oklahoma W 76-74 58%    
  Jan 31, 2026 7   Kentucky W 79-78 53%    
  Feb 07, 2026 32   @ Mississippi St. W 75-74 51%    
  Feb 10, 2026 53   @ LSU W 76-72 61%    
  Feb 14, 2026 22   Auburn W 77-73 63%    
  Feb 17, 2026 19   @ Alabama L 82-85 41%    
  Feb 21, 2026 37   Missouri W 80-73 71%    
  Feb 25, 2026 36   Texas A&M W 75-68 71%    
  Feb 28, 2026 5   @ Florida L 73-81 26%    
  Mar 04, 2026 38   Texas W 77-70 71%    
  Mar 07, 2026 37   @ Missouri W 77-76 52%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.6 3.6 3.1 1.6 0.3 12.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 3.5 4.5 2.1 0.4 0.0 11.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 3.9 4.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 11.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.2 4.5 1.5 0.1 9.9 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 5.0 1.8 0.2 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.1 2.6 0.2 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.7 2.9 0.6 0.0 6.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.5 3.7 1.1 0.0 6.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.8 1.7 0.1 5.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.7 2.5 0.3 4.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 2.3 0.9 0.0 4.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 3.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.2 0.2 2.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 2.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.6 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 3.1 4.3 6.3 8.1 9.6 11.1 12.4 11.6 10.3 8.7 5.9 3.5 1.7 0.3 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 98.7% 1.6    1.5 0.2
16-2 87.8% 3.1    2.2 0.9 0.0 0.0
15-3 61.4% 3.6    1.7 1.6 0.3 0.0
14-4 29.7% 2.6    0.9 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 7.3% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.2% 12.2 6.7 4.1 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 100.0% 57.5% 42.5% 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.7% 100.0% 35.6% 64.4% 1.3 1.2 0.4 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.5% 100.0% 32.8% 67.2% 1.6 2.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 5.9% 100.0% 25.4% 74.6% 2.0 2.0 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 8.7% 100.0% 19.4% 80.6% 2.7 1.3 3.0 2.5 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 10.3% 100.0% 13.9% 86.1% 3.5 0.6 1.9 2.8 2.6 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 11.6% 100.0% 9.7% 90.3% 4.4 0.1 0.9 2.3 3.0 2.7 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 12.4% 99.0% 5.3% 93.7% 5.5 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.3 2.6 2.7 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.0%
10-8 11.1% 94.3% 2.7% 91.6% 6.7 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.1 2.2 1.7 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.6 94.1%
9-9 9.6% 82.4% 1.4% 81.0% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.0 1.7 82.2%
8-10 8.1% 55.1% 1.1% 54.1% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.6 54.7%
7-11 6.3% 23.7% 0.6% 23.1% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.0 4.8 23.2%
6-12 4.3% 9.3% 0.3% 8.9% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.9 9.0%
5-13 3.1% 0.2% 0.2% 13.0 0.0 3.1
4-14 1.4% 1.4
3-15 0.9% 0.9
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 79.2% 9.0% 70.3% 4.9 7.5 10.3 10.6 10.9 9.4 8.5 6.7 5.4 3.6 3.9 2.3 0.1 0.0 20.8 77.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 100.0