Preseason Rankings
Baylor
Big 12
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.2#24
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.7#322
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.8#21
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.3#31
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.4% 3.5% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 9.0% 9.1% 1.9%
Top 4 Seed 24.0% 24.1% 9.7%
Top 6 Seed 40.6% 40.8% 18.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 69.8% 70.1% 41.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 68.3% 68.6% 41.3%
Average Seed 5.9 5.9 6.9
.500 or above 84.7% 84.9% 60.0%
.500 or above in Conference 68.8% 69.0% 50.8%
Conference Champion 6.1% 6.1% 3.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 1.7% 3.9%
First Four5.2% 5.2% 7.8%
First Round67.4% 67.7% 37.8%
Second Round49.9% 50.1% 28.7%
Sweet Sixteen24.7% 24.9% 9.1%
Elite Eight10.9% 11.1% 1.3%
Final Four4.7% 4.7% 0.6%
Championship Game2.1% 2.1% 0.6%
National Champion0.9% 0.9% 0.0%

Next Game: UT Rio Grande Valley (Home) - 98.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 36 - 9
Quad 25 - 211 - 11
Quad 33 - 014 - 11
Quad 46 - 019 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 275   UT Rio Grande Valley W 84-60 99%    
  Nov 09, 2025 48   Washington W 74-67 74%    
  Nov 14, 2025 273   Tarleton St. W 76-52 98%    
  Nov 24, 2025 25   Creighton W 71-70 50%    
  Nov 25, 2025 8   St. John's L 70-73 38%    
  Dec 02, 2025 279   Sacramento St. W 79-54 99%    
  Dec 06, 2025 51   @ Memphis W 73-71 55%    
  Dec 10, 2025 260   Norfolk St. W 80-56 98%    
  Dec 19, 2025 323   Alcorn St. W 80-52 99%    
  Dec 21, 2025 189   Southern W 78-58 95%    
  Jan 03, 2026 56   @ TCU W 69-66 59%    
  Jan 07, 2026 20   Iowa St. W 70-68 55%    
  Jan 10, 2026 1   Houston L 59-65 30%    
  Jan 13, 2026 73   @ Oklahoma St. W 76-72 64%    
  Jan 16, 2026 14   @ Kansas L 67-72 32%    
  Jan 20, 2026 12   Texas Tech W 70-69 51%    
  Jan 24, 2026 56   TCU W 72-63 77%    
  Jan 28, 2026 45   @ Cincinnati W 66-65 51%    
  Jan 31, 2026 58   @ West Virginia W 67-64 58%    
  Feb 04, 2026 84   Colorado W 74-62 83%    
  Feb 07, 2026 20   @ Iowa St. L 67-71 36%    
  Feb 10, 2026 9   BYU L 72-73 49%    
  Feb 14, 2026 10   Louisville L 71-74 41%    
  Feb 17, 2026 57   @ Kansas St. W 70-67 59%    
  Feb 21, 2026 69   Arizona St. W 75-65 80%    
  Feb 24, 2026 11   Arizona W 74-73 50%    
  Feb 28, 2026 74   @ Central Florida W 76-72 65%    
  Mar 04, 2026 1   @ Houston L 56-68 16%    
  Mar 07, 2026 89   Utah W 77-65 85%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.1 2.0 1.7 0.9 0.2 6.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.2 1.7 0.4 0.0 7.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 8.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.1 2.3 0.3 9.4 4th
5th 0.1 2.3 4.7 2.8 0.2 10.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 4.2 3.4 0.5 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.6 4.1 0.9 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.2 2.1 4.6 1.5 0.1 8.5 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 3.8 2.0 0.2 7.2 9th
10th 0.5 2.8 2.6 0.4 0.0 6.2 10th
11th 0.2 1.9 2.3 0.6 0.0 5.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.3 0.9 0.1 4.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 1.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 3.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.2 2.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.8 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 4.0 5.9 7.6 9.8 11.9 12.6 12.0 10.0 8.9 6.3 4.0 2.1 0.9 0.2 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 98.4% 0.9    0.8 0.1
16-2 79.8% 1.7    1.1 0.6 0.1
15-3 49.0% 2.0    0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0
14-4 17.2% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1
13-5 2.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.1% 6.1 3.1 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 59.1% 40.9% 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.9% 100.0% 38.5% 61.5% 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.1% 100.0% 22.5% 77.5% 1.9 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 4.0% 100.0% 18.4% 81.6% 2.3 1.1 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 6.3% 99.9% 14.5% 85.4% 3.1 0.5 1.6 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-5 8.9% 99.8% 9.7% 90.1% 4.1 0.2 0.9 2.1 2.4 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-6 10.0% 99.1% 6.5% 92.5% 5.2 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.9 2.4 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.0%
11-7 12.0% 97.6% 3.4% 94.2% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.2 2.1 2.8 2.1 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.3 97.5%
10-8 12.6% 88.9% 1.3% 87.6% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 2.2 2.4 1.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 1.4 88.7%
9-9 11.9% 73.9% 1.2% 72.6% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.9 1.8 2.0 1.0 0.0 3.1 73.5%
8-10 9.8% 44.0% 0.5% 43.5% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.4 1.2 0.1 5.5 43.7%
7-11 7.6% 16.9% 0.3% 16.6% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.0 6.3 16.6%
6-12 5.9% 4.8% 0.1% 4.7% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.6 4.7%
5-13 4.0% 0.9% 0.9% 11.2 0.0 0.0 3.9 0.9%
4-14 2.2% 2.2
3-15 1.1% 1.1
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 69.8% 4.9% 64.9% 5.9 3.4 5.6 7.3 7.6 8.2 8.4 7.5 7.2 5.7 5.4 3.3 0.2 30.2 68.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 83.3 16.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 75.0 25.0