Preseason Rankings
East Tennessee St.
Southern
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.1#156
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.7#294
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#174
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#149
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.9% 18.9% 11.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.3 13.9
.500 or above 77.0% 85.3% 65.0%
.500 or above in Conference 77.7% 82.6% 70.6%
Conference Champion 21.8% 26.0% 15.6%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 1.6% 3.5%
First Four0.6% 0.5% 0.7%
First Round16.0% 19.0% 11.6%
Second Round1.3% 1.7% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Presbyterian (Away) - 59.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 21 - 3
Quad 34 - 55 - 8
Quad 414 - 419 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2025 263   @ Presbyterian W 67-64 59%    
  Nov 12, 2025 266   Northern Kentucky W 70-61 79%    
  Nov 15, 2025 191   @ North Alabama L 67-68 47%    
  Nov 21, 2025 291   Morehead St. W 69-59 82%    
  Nov 23, 2025 347   Louisiana Monroe W 75-60 91%    
  Nov 29, 2025 354   Central Arkansas W 76-59 93%    
  Dec 02, 2025 65   @ Dayton L 61-73 15%    
  Dec 05, 2025 167   South Alabama W 65-61 62%    
  Dec 12, 2025 272   @ Austin Peay W 68-65 61%    
  Dec 16, 2025 23   @ North Carolina L 64-82 6%    
  Dec 20, 2025 154   Jacksonville St. W 66-63 60%    
  Dec 31, 2025 342   @ The Citadel W 69-61 77%    
  Jan 03, 2026 246   Mercer W 74-66 74%    
  Jan 07, 2026 293   VMI W 74-64 81%    
  Jan 10, 2026 232   UNC Greensboro W 67-60 72%    
  Jan 14, 2026 262   @ Western Carolina W 72-69 59%    
  Jan 17, 2026 171   @ Samford L 72-74 43%    
  Jan 21, 2026 134   @ Chattanooga L 67-72 34%    
  Jan 24, 2026 342   The Citadel W 72-58 88%    
  Jan 29, 2026 262   Western Carolina W 75-66 75%    
  Jan 31, 2026 205   @ Wofford L 65-66 48%    
  Feb 04, 2026 142   Furman W 69-67 55%    
  Feb 07, 2026 293   @ VMI W 71-67 64%    
  Feb 11, 2026 134   Chattanooga W 70-69 54%    
  Feb 14, 2026 171   Samford W 75-71 63%    
  Feb 18, 2026 142   @ Furman L 66-70 36%    
  Feb 21, 2026 232   @ UNC Greensboro W 64-63 53%    
  Feb 25, 2026 205   Wofford W 69-63 67%    
  Feb 28, 2026 246   @ Mercer W 71-69 55%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 2.9 5.3 5.4 4.3 2.0 0.7 21.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.0 5.3 5.8 3.8 1.4 0.2 18.9 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.7 5.9 4.4 1.7 0.3 15.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.0 3.6 0.8 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.3 2.7 0.4 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.3 1.7 3.6 2.0 0.3 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.4 1.4 0.1 0.0 5.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.1 2.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 2.3 4.4 5.5 7.7 9.3 11.0 12.0 11.7 10.4 9.4 6.9 4.5 2.0 0.7 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 100.0% 2.0    1.9 0.0
16-2 95.6% 4.3    3.8 0.4
15-3 79.2% 5.4    4.1 1.3 0.0
14-4 56.5% 5.3    3.0 2.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 27.8% 2.9    1.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 9.5% 1.1    0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.8% 21.8 14.8 5.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 61.5% 61.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3
17-1 2.0% 54.1% 53.0% 1.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.9 2.3%
16-2 4.5% 43.7% 43.7% 12.3 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.5
15-3 6.9% 35.6% 35.6% 12.8 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.4
14-4 9.4% 27.1% 27.1% 13.2 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 6.8
13-5 10.4% 23.1% 23.1% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.0 8.0
12-6 11.7% 14.4% 14.4% 14.4 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 10.0
11-7 12.0% 11.2% 11.2% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 10.7
10-8 11.0% 9.2% 9.2% 16.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 10.0
9-9 9.3% 5.6% 5.6% 17.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 8.7
8-10 7.7% 4.5% 4.5% 17.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 7.4
7-11 5.5% 2.1% 2.1% 18.9 0.0 0.1 5.4
6-12 4.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 4.3
5-13 2.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.2
4-14 1.3% 1.3
3-15 0.8% 0.8
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.9% 15.9% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.1 4.1 4.0 2.6 1.4 84.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 5.8 24.6 49.1 26.3