Preseason Rankings
Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-9.2#320
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.4#252
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-5.0#313
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#305
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.5% 7.2% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 17.7 14.8 15.5
.500 or above 30.4% 63.0% 28.8%
.500 or above in Conference 34.6% 57.7% 33.5%
Conference Champion 3.1% 9.1% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 14.3% 5.0% 14.8%
First Four0.9% 0.8% 0.9%
First Round2.5% 7.4% 2.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Penn St. (Away) - 4.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 31 - 51 - 7
Quad 412 - 1113 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 90   @ Penn St. L 62-80 5%    
  Nov 08, 2025 357   @ NJIT W 67-65 57%    
  Nov 10, 2025 102   @ Seton Hall L 56-73 6%    
  Nov 14, 2025 339   Stonehill W 68-63 67%    
  Nov 16, 2025 316   Loyola Maryland W 69-66 58%    
  Nov 22, 2025 344   @ Le Moyne L 72-73 48%    
  Nov 26, 2025 267   Columbia L 74-75 48%    
  Nov 30, 2025 356   New Hampshire W 72-65 74%    
  Dec 05, 2025 252   @ Manhattan L 68-75 26%    
  Dec 07, 2025 258   @ Merrimack L 60-67 27%    
  Dec 14, 2025 210   Monmouth L 68-71 39%    
  Dec 18, 2025 305   @ Central Connecticut St. L 62-66 37%    
  Dec 29, 2025 295   St. Peter's W 63-62 54%    
  Jan 02, 2026 352   @ Canisius W 68-67 52%    
  Jan 04, 2026 333   @ Niagara L 65-67 43%    
  Jan 09, 2026 309   Rider W 67-65 57%    
  Jan 14, 2026 252   Manhattan L 71-72 46%    
  Jan 17, 2026 237   @ Marist L 58-66 26%    
  Jan 19, 2026 213   @ Siena L 65-74 22%    
  Jan 22, 2026 333   Niagara W 68-64 63%    
  Jan 24, 2026 352   Canisius W 71-65 72%    
  Jan 30, 2026 208   @ Iona L 65-75 22%    
  Feb 01, 2026 221   Quinnipiac L 71-74 41%    
  Feb 05, 2026 251   @ Sacred Heart L 70-77 27%    
  Feb 07, 2026 237   Marist L 61-63 43%    
  Feb 15, 2026 295   @ St. Peter's L 60-65 36%    
  Feb 20, 2026 251   Sacred Heart L 73-74 46%    
  Feb 22, 2026 221   @ Quinnipiac L 68-77 24%    
  Feb 27, 2026 213   Siena L 68-71 40%    
  Mar 01, 2026 270   Mount St. Mary's L 67-68 49%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.5 3rd
4th 0.2 1.6 2.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 6.0 4th
5th 0.2 1.4 2.9 1.8 0.3 6.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 3.6 2.1 0.3 0.0 7.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.6 2.9 0.7 0.0 8.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 3.3 3.8 1.0 0.0 9.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.1 4.3 1.4 0.1 9.9 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 3.1 4.3 1.8 0.2 10.5 10th
11th 0.2 1.1 3.4 4.1 2.0 0.3 0.0 11.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.3 3.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 10.8 12th
13th 0.4 1.3 2.0 2.4 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 9.0 13th
Total 0.4 1.3 2.4 4.5 6.5 8.7 9.9 10.6 10.9 10.2 9.3 7.6 6.0 4.6 2.9 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 96.8% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 89.5% 0.5    0.4 0.1
16-4 66.4% 0.8    0.5 0.3 0.0
15-5 40.8% 0.8    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 14.5% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.1% 3.1 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.1% 27.1% 27.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.2% 32.1% 32.1% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.6% 24.0% 24.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5
16-4 1.2% 19.6% 19.6% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.0
15-5 2.0% 16.7% 16.7% 16.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.6
14-6 2.9% 10.3% 10.3% 18.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.6
13-7 4.6% 8.5% 8.5% 19.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 4.2
12-8 6.0% 5.7% 5.7% 20.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 5.7
11-9 7.6% 3.9% 3.9% 18.5 0.1 0.3 7.3
10-10 9.3% 2.1% 2.1% 19.3 0.0 0.2 9.2
9-11 10.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.2
8-12 10.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 10.8
7-13 10.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.6
6-14 9.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.8
5-15 8.7% 8.7
4-16 6.5% 6.5
3-17 4.5% 4.5
2-18 2.4% 2.4
1-19 1.3% 1.3
0-20 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 17.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.7 1.8 97.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%