IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Penn St.
Big Ten
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+5.7	#90
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	73.9	#51
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+2.6	#103

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+3.1	#89

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.5%	0.5%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	1.7%	1.7%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	9.5%	9.8%	2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	9.3%	9.7%	2.0%
Average Seed	8.5	8.5	9.7

.500 or above	35.0%	36.1%	11.6%
.500 or above in Conference	9.4%	9.7%	2.1%
Conference Champion	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	29.3%	28.5%	47.3%

First Four	2.2%	2.3%	0.5%
First Round	8.3%	8.6%	1.8%
Second Round	4.2%	4.4%	0.8%
Sweet Sixteen	1.0%	1.1%	0.2%
Elite Eight	0.4%	0.4%	0.0%
Final Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Fairfield (Home) - 95.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	1 - 7	1 - 7
Quad 1b	1 - 4	2 - 12
Quad 2	3 - 4	5 - 15
Quad 3	2 - 1	7 - 17
Quad 4	7 - 1	14 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	320	Fairfield	W	80-62	95%
Nov 08, 2025	363	@ New Haven	W	83-62	97%
Nov 11, 2025	230	Navy	W	79-66	87%
Nov 15, 2025	187	La Salle	W	79-71	75%
Nov 19, 2025	178	Harvard	W	76-66	82%
Nov 22, 2025	61	Providence	L	71-75	37%
Nov 25, 2025	280	Boston University	W	75-60	91%
Nov 29, 2025	251	Sacred Heart	W	85-71	88%
Dec 02, 2025	200	Campbell	W	77-66	83%
Dec 09, 2025	33	@ Indiana	L	69-80	18%
Dec 13, 2025	21	Michigan St.	L	69-76	27%
Dec 21, 2025	80	Pittsburgh	L	73-74	46%
Dec 29, 2025	329	NC Central	W	83-64	95%
Jan 03, 2026	15	Illinois	L	74-86	16%
Jan 06, 2026	6	Michigan	L	71-82	17%
Jan 10, 2026	2	@ Purdue	L	63-84	4%
Jan 14, 2026	13	UCLA	L	66-75	23%
Jan 18, 2026	40	@ Maryland	L	70-80	21%
Jan 22, 2026	26	Wisconsin	L	72-78	29%
Jan 26, 2026	27	@ Ohio St.	L	69-81	16%
Jan 29, 2026	72	@ Northwestern	L	68-73	34%
Feb 01, 2026	87	Minnesota	W	70-67	58%
Feb 05, 2026	6	@ Michigan	L	68-85	8%
Feb 08, 2026	29	USC	L	73-79	32%
Feb 11, 2026	48	@ Washington	L	71-79	24%
Feb 14, 2026	28	@ Oregon	L	68-80	17%
Feb 18, 2026	82	Rutgers	W	75-73	57%
Feb 21, 2026	59	@ Nebraska	L	71-78	29%
Feb 28, 2026	34	Iowa	L	76-81	35%
Mar 04, 2026	27	Ohio St.	L	72-78	32%
Mar 08, 2026	82	@ Rutgers	L	72-76	38%
Projected Record						14 - 17	5 - 15

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Ten Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st																	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0	1st
2nd														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0					0.2	2nd
3rd													0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0					0.5	3rd
4th												0.0	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.0							0.5	4th
5th												0.1	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.0							0.9	5th
6th										0.0	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.0								1.3	6th
7th										0.0	0.3	0.9	0.4	0.0									1.6	7th
8th									0.0	0.3	1.1	0.8	0.1										2.2	8th
9th								0.0	0.1	1.1	1.1	0.3	0.0										2.6	9th
10th								0.1	0.9	1.9	0.7	0.0											3.6	10th
11th							0.1	0.5	2.4	1.7	0.2												4.8	11th
12th							0.3	2.1	2.5	0.5	0.0												5.4	12th
13th					0.0	0.2	1.8	3.4	1.3	0.1													6.9	13th
14th					0.2	1.6	4.2	2.8	0.3														9.1	14th
15th				0.1	1.5	4.5	3.5	1.0	0.0														10.6	15th
16th			0.2	2.2	5.0	4.6	1.4	0.1															13.5	16th
17th		0.5	3.1	5.8	5.3	1.8	0.2																16.7	17th
18th	2.0	5.5	6.4	4.1	1.3	0.2																	19.5	18th

Total	2.0	6.0	9.8	12.1	13.2	13.0	11.4	10.1	7.5	5.5	3.5	2.6	1.5	1.0	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0				Total

Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
18-2	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-3	44.4%	0.0			0.0
16-4	12.5%	0.0			0.0
15-5	0.0%
14-6	0.0%
13-7	0.0%
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	0.0%	0.0		0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1	0.0%								0.0
18-2	0.0%									0.0
17-3	0.1%		100.0%	11.1%	88.9%	2.9		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0														100.0%
16-4	0.1%		100.0%		100.0%	3.8			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0														100.0%
15-5	0.3%		100.0%	10.4%	89.6%	4.7		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0											100.0%
14-6	0.4%		98.0%		98.0%	5.5				0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0								0.0		98.0%
13-7	1.0%		98.5%	2.2%	96.3%	6.4				0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0							0.0		98.5%
12-8	1.5%		92.2%	1.4%	90.8%	7.7					0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0						0.1		92.1%
11-9	2.6%		80.2%	0.6%	79.6%	8.6					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.7	0.5	0.1						0.5		80.0%
10-10	3.5%		60.0%	0.4%	59.6%	9.4						0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.8	0.4	0.0					1.4		59.9%
9-11	5.5%		26.6%	0.3%	26.4%	10.0								0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.5	0.0					4.0		26.5%
8-12	7.5%		7.4%		7.4%	10.6								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.0					7.0		7.4%
7-13	10.1%		1.2%		1.2%	11.2											0.0	0.1	0.0					10.0		1.2%
6-14	11.4%		0.1%		0.1%	12.0													0.0					11.4		0.1%
5-15	13.0%																							13.0
4-16	13.2%																							13.2
3-17	12.1%																							12.1
2-18	9.8%																							9.8
1-19	6.0%																							6.0
0-20	2.0%																							2.0

Total	100%		9.5%	0.1%	9.3%	8.5		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.7	1.0	1.4	1.7	2.2	1.3	0.1					90.5		9.3%