Preseason Rankings
Hawaii
Big West
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.3#141
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.8#274
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#164
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#123
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.1% 25.2% 13.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.7% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 11.9 12.9
.500 or above 82.6% 96.7% 81.6%
.500 or above in Conference 79.9% 92.5% 79.0%
Conference Champion 16.1% 29.8% 15.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.1% 1.5%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round14.1% 25.3% 13.3%
Second Round1.6% 4.5% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon (Away) - 6.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 45 - 8
Quad 414 - 319 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2025 28   @ Oregon L 61-77 7%    
  Nov 10, 2025 331   East Texas A&M W 74-59 91%    
  Nov 13, 2025 365   Mississippi Valley W 78-49 99.6%   
  Nov 15, 2025 252   Manhattan W 75-66 80%    
  Nov 16, 2025 269   Utah Tech W 73-63 82%    
  Nov 21, 2025 69   Arizona St. L 68-72 36%    
  Nov 29, 2025 315   North Dakota W 78-65 88%    
  Dec 05, 2025 255   UC Davis W 70-61 80%    
  Dec 07, 2025 336   Cal St. Fullerton W 75-60 90%    
  Dec 14, 2025 160   UTEP W 71-66 65%    
  Jan 01, 2026 256   @ UC Riverside W 70-67 61%    
  Jan 03, 2026 119   @ UC San Diego L 64-68 36%    
  Jan 11, 2026 92   UC Irvine L 68-69 45%    
  Jan 15, 2026 253   @ Cal Poly W 79-76 60%    
  Jan 17, 2026 126   @ UC Santa Barbara L 65-69 38%    
  Jan 23, 2026 234   Cal St. Bakersfield W 71-63 75%    
  Jan 25, 2026 176   Cal St. Northridge W 76-70 68%    
  Jan 29, 2026 92   @ UC Irvine L 65-72 27%    
  Jan 31, 2026 264   @ Long Beach St. W 67-63 62%    
  Feb 08, 2026 119   UC San Diego W 67-65 56%    
  Feb 12, 2026 234   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 68-66 58%    
  Feb 14, 2026 176   @ Cal St. Northridge L 73-74 49%    
  Feb 20, 2026 253   Cal Poly W 82-73 78%    
  Feb 22, 2026 126   UC Santa Barbara W 68-66 57%    
  Feb 26, 2026 255   @ UC Davis W 67-64 61%    
  Feb 28, 2026 336   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 72-63 77%    
  Mar 06, 2026 256   UC Riverside W 73-64 78%    
  Mar 08, 2026 264   Long Beach St. W 70-60 79%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 2.3 3.8 4.1 3.3 1.4 0.3 16.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.9 4.3 5.2 3.4 1.1 0.2 16.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 2.8 5.4 4.9 2.0 0.4 0.0 16.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 3.5 5.0 3.7 1.0 0.1 14.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.2 4.6 2.4 0.4 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.6 3.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 2.3 2.5 1.0 0.1 6.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.8 0.6 0.1 4.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.0 3.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.8 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.2 3.5 5.2 6.5 8.6 10.3 10.7 11.5 11.0 9.6 7.7 5.3 3.5 1.4 0.3 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.4    1.4 0.0
18-2 93.8% 3.3    2.8 0.4
17-3 78.5% 4.1    2.9 1.2 0.0
16-4 49.4% 3.8    2.1 1.4 0.3 0.0
15-5 24.0% 2.3    0.8 1.0 0.5 0.0
14-6 7.1% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 16.1% 16.1 10.5 4.4 1.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 68.2% 61.9% 6.3% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 16.6%
19-1 1.4% 48.7% 47.2% 1.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 2.8%
18-2 3.5% 46.2% 46.0% 0.2% 11.8 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.9 0.4%
17-3 5.3% 39.2% 39.2% 12.3 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.2
16-4 7.7% 32.4% 32.4% 12.6 0.1 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 5.2
15-5 9.6% 24.6% 24.6% 13.0 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 7.3
14-6 11.0% 18.5% 18.5% 13.5 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 8.9
13-7 11.5% 11.5% 11.5% 13.9 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 10.2
12-8 10.7% 7.1% 7.1% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 10.0
11-9 10.3% 2.5% 2.5% 14.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.0
10-10 8.6% 1.3% 1.3% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.5
9-11 6.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.4
8-12 5.2% 0.5% 0.5% 19.5 0.0 0.0 5.2
7-13 3.5% 3.5
6-14 2.2% 2.2
5-15 1.4% 1.4
4-16 0.7% 0.7
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 14.1% 14.0% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.0 4.5 2.7 0.9 0.2 85.9 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 7.3 33.3 33.3 33.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 9.0 33.3 33.3 33.3