Preseason Rankings
Liberty
Conference USA
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.2#100
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.4#285
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#110
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#93
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 1.0% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.0% 25.9% 15.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.8% 1.1% 0.3%
Average Seed 11.6 11.3 12.3
.500 or above 85.0% 89.9% 73.1%
.500 or above in Conference 86.1% 88.8% 79.3%
Conference Champion 32.0% 36.3% 21.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.9% 2.7%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
First Round22.9% 25.8% 16.0%
Second Round5.3% 6.3% 2.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.4% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: College of Charleston (Home) - 71.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 22 - 4
Quad 38 - 410 - 8
Quad 49 - 118 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2025 123   College of Charleston W 75-69 71%    
  Nov 09, 2025 140   Florida Atlantic W 75-68 74%    
  Nov 24, 2025 207   Vermont W 66-58 76%    
  Dec 06, 2025 361   Coppin St. W 78-54 98%    
  Dec 10, 2025 31   @ North Carolina St. L 61-73 15%    
  Dec 20, 2025 65   @ Dayton L 63-70 28%    
  Dec 28, 2025 209   @ Florida International W 71-66 67%    
  Jan 02, 2026 146   Kennesaw St. W 76-69 73%    
  Jan 04, 2026 154   Jacksonville St. W 69-61 75%    
  Jan 08, 2026 144   @ Louisiana Tech W 65-64 54%    
  Jan 10, 2026 199   @ Sam Houston St. W 71-67 64%    
  Jan 15, 2026 139   New Mexico St. W 68-61 71%    
  Jan 17, 2026 160   UTEP W 73-64 76%    
  Jan 21, 2026 161   @ Western Kentucky W 74-71 58%    
  Jan 24, 2026 236   Delaware W 79-67 85%    
  Jan 28, 2026 151   @ Middle Tennessee W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 04, 2026 236   @ Delaware W 76-70 70%    
  Feb 07, 2026 114   Missouri St. W 66-61 65%    
  Feb 11, 2026 139   @ New Mexico St. W 65-64 52%    
  Feb 14, 2026 160   @ UTEP W 70-67 59%    
  Feb 19, 2026 209   Florida International W 74-63 81%    
  Feb 21, 2026 161   Western Kentucky W 77-68 77%    
  Feb 26, 2026 146   @ Kennesaw St. W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 28, 2026 154   @ Jacksonville St. W 66-64 57%    
  Mar 05, 2026 144   Louisiana Tech W 68-61 73%    
  Mar 07, 2026 199   Sam Houston St. W 74-64 80%    
Projected Record 17 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.3 6.6 7.2 6.4 3.9 1.5 32.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.9 5.4 3.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 18.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.7 3.6 1.5 0.2 0.0 12.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.5 2.7 0.7 0.1 9.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 6.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 2.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 5.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 2.1 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.7 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.2 3.4 5.0 6.0 7.7 8.7 10.6 10.9 11.3 10.2 8.5 6.7 3.9 1.5 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.5    1.5
19-1 99.8% 3.9    3.8 0.1
18-2 96.5% 6.4    5.8 0.6 0.0
17-3 84.4% 7.2    5.8 1.3 0.0
16-4 64.6% 6.6    4.0 2.2 0.3 0.0
15-5 38.3% 4.3    1.8 1.9 0.5 0.1
14-6 15.9% 1.7    0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 32.0% 32.0 23.3 7.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.5% 87.2% 74.4% 12.8% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 49.9%
19-1 3.9% 63.9% 56.3% 7.6% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 0.2 1.4 17.4%
18-2 6.7% 49.6% 48.2% 1.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.0 0.7 0.1 3.4 2.7%
17-3 8.5% 42.1% 41.3% 0.8% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.7 1.4 0.3 4.9 1.4%
16-4 10.2% 33.6% 33.6% 11.9 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 6.7
15-5 11.3% 25.9% 25.9% 12.2 0.5 1.6 0.8 0.1 8.4
14-6 10.9% 20.8% 20.8% 12.5 0.1 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 8.6
13-7 10.6% 16.2% 16.2% 12.8 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 8.9
12-8 8.7% 9.3% 9.3% 13.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 7.9
11-9 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 14.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.2
10-10 6.0% 5.3% 5.3% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.6
9-11 5.0% 2.4% 2.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.9
8-12 3.4% 2.5% 2.5% 18.3 0.0 0.1 3.3
7-13 2.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 2.2
6-14 1.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.5
5-15 1.0% 1.0
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 23.0% 22.4% 0.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.2 6.7 7.8 3.7 1.3 0.4 0.2 77.0 0.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 3.6 12.5 6.2 24.9 25.2 24.9 6.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 70.7% 4.2 28.3 14.1 14.1 14.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 48.3% 10.0 48.3