IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Portland St.
Big Sky
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-3.1	#217
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	70.2	#117
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.6	#278

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.4	#148

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	11.1%	17.4%	10.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.9	13.7	14.4

.500 or above	46.2%	70.0%	42.2%
.500 or above in Conference	63.0%	76.5%	60.7%
Conference Champion	13.2%	20.7%	11.9%
Last Place in Conference	8.0%	3.1%	8.9%

First Four	1.3%	0.9%	1.4%
First Round	11.0%	17.5%	9.9%
Second Round	0.6%	1.1%	0.5%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Stanford (Away) - 14.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 4
Quad 3	3 - 5	3 - 9
Quad 4	10 - 5	13 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2025	99	@ Stanford	L	63-74	14%
Nov 12, 2025	77	@ San Francisco	L	64-77	11%
Nov 17, 2025	234	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	71-67	63%
Nov 25, 2025	269	@ Utah Tech	L	69-70	49%
Dec 03, 2025	294	@ South Dakota	W	81-80	54%
Dec 06, 2025	177	Nebraska Omaha	W	72-71	54%
Dec 17, 2025	84	@ Colorado	L	63-76	14%
Dec 20, 2025	115	@ Tulane	L	66-75	20%
Jan 01, 2026	281	@ Weber St.	W	68-67	52%
Jan 03, 2026	287	@ Idaho St.	W	68-67	53%
Jan 10, 2026	279	Sacramento St.	W	70-64	71%
Jan 15, 2026	194	Northern Colorado	W	74-72	57%
Jan 17, 2026	254	Northern Arizona	W	73-68	66%
Jan 22, 2026	259	@ Eastern Washington	L	70-71	47%
Jan 24, 2026	239	@ Idaho	L	70-72	44%
Jan 29, 2026	183	Montana	W	72-70	55%
Jan 31, 2026	147	Montana St.	L	68-69	47%
Feb 02, 2026	287	Idaho St.	W	71-64	71%
Feb 07, 2026	279	@ Sacramento St.	W	68-67	52%
Feb 12, 2026	254	@ Northern Arizona	L	70-71	46%
Feb 14, 2026	194	@ Northern Colorado	L	71-75	36%
Feb 19, 2026	239	Idaho	W	73-69	63%
Feb 21, 2026	259	Eastern Washington	W	73-68	67%
Feb 26, 2026	147	@ Montana St.	L	65-72	30%
Feb 28, 2026	183	@ Montana	L	69-73	36%
Mar 02, 2026	281	Weber St.	W	71-64	70%
Projected Record						12 - 14	10 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Sky Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.2	0.7	2.2	3.5	3.3	2.1	0.9	0.2		13.2	1st
2nd											0.2	1.6	4.3	4.4	2.2	0.6	0.1				13.4	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.4	2.3	4.8	3.9	1.4	0.2	0.0					13.0	3rd
4th								0.0	0.2	2.3	5.5	3.3	0.7	0.1							12.1	4th
5th								0.3	2.2	4.8	2.8	0.6	0.0								10.6	5th
6th							0.3	2.1	4.4	2.7	0.4	0.0									9.9	6th
7th						0.3	1.8	4.1	2.3	0.3	0.0										8.8	7th
8th				0.0	0.4	1.8	3.2	1.9	0.3	0.0											7.5	8th
9th			0.1	0.7	1.7	2.9	1.3	0.1													6.7	9th
10th	0.1	0.4	0.9	1.4	1.3	0.6	0.1	0.0													4.8	10th

Total	0.1	0.4	1.0	2.1	3.4	5.6	6.6	8.5	9.3	10.4	11.3	10.5	9.7	8.0	5.8	3.9	2.3	0.9	0.2			Total

Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.2		0.2
17-1	100.0%	0.9		0.8	0.0
16-2	95.0%	2.1		1.9	0.2
15-3	85.3%	3.3		2.6	0.7	0.0
14-4	59.8%	3.5		2.0	1.3	0.2	0.0
13-5	27.3%	2.2		0.9	1.0	0.3	0.0
12-6	7.6%	0.7		0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1
11-7	1.7%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	13.2%	13.2		8.6	3.5	0.8	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.2%		48.1%	48.1%		9.7				0.0			0.0	0.0			0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0				0.1
17-1	0.9%		48.3%	48.3%		12.4												0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.4
16-2	2.3%		42.2%	42.2%		12.7												0.1	0.3	0.4	0.1	0.0		1.3
15-3	3.9%		39.0%	39.0%		13.2												0.0	0.3	0.6	0.5	0.1		2.4
14-4	5.8%		26.6%	26.6%		13.8													0.2	0.4	0.7	0.3	0.0	4.3
13-5	8.0%		22.4%	22.4%		14.2													0.0	0.3	0.8	0.5	0.1	6.2
12-6	9.7%		16.0%	16.0%		15.6													0.0	0.1	0.6	0.7	0.3	8.1
11-7	10.5%		10.9%	10.9%		16.4														0.0	0.2	0.7	0.4	9.4
10-8	11.3%		7.9%	7.9%		18.4														0.0	0.1	0.5	0.5	10.4
9-9	10.4%		6.1%	6.1%		18.3														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	9.8
8-10	9.3%		3.4%	3.4%		16.9															0.0	0.0	0.3	9.0
7-11	8.5%		1.2%	1.2%		17.0																0.0	0.1	8.4
6-12	6.6%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																	0.1	6.5
5-13	5.6%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.1	5.6
4-14	3.4%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	3.3
3-15	2.1%																							2.1
2-16	1.0%																							1.0
1-17	0.4%																							0.4
0-18	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	14.9				0.0			0.0	0.0			0.0	0.2	1.1	2.0	3.0	3.0	2.3	88.9		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	5.3			33.3			33.3	33.3