Preseason Rankings
Texas San Antonio
American Athletic
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.7#168
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.1#55
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#136
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#220
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 2.3% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.0 11.8 13.0
.500 or above 31.1% 37.1% 14.7%
.500 or above in Conference 26.8% 30.5% 16.7%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.1% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 19.2% 16.6% 26.3%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round1.9% 2.3% 1.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SIU Edwardsville (Home) - 73.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 34 - 66 - 13
Quad 45 - 211 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2025 240   SIU Edwardsville W 75-68 73%    
  Nov 12, 2025 197   @ Texas St. L 73-74 45%    
  Nov 15, 2025 322   @ Denver W 77-71 70%    
  Nov 23, 2025 166   Abilene Christian L 74-75 50%    
  Nov 25, 2025 243   Georgia Southern W 80-76 62%    
  Dec 07, 2025 19   @ Alabama L 76-96 4%    
  Dec 13, 2025 84   @ Colorado L 69-79 19%    
  Dec 17, 2025 29   @ USC L 68-86 6%    
  Dec 22, 2025 121   Seattle L 70-71 49%    
  Jan 03, 2026 133   @ Temple L 75-81 32%    
  Jan 07, 2026 192   Charlotte W 74-70 65%    
  Jan 10, 2026 115   Tulane L 74-75 46%    
  Jan 14, 2026 172   Rice W 75-72 60%    
  Jan 18, 2026 51   @ Memphis L 71-85 11%    
  Jan 21, 2026 88   @ North Texas L 60-69 21%    
  Jan 24, 2026 133   Temple W 78-77 52%    
  Jan 28, 2026 103   UAB L 77-80 42%    
  Feb 04, 2026 95   @ South Florida L 71-80 22%    
  Feb 07, 2026 88   North Texas L 63-66 38%    
  Feb 11, 2026 158   @ East Carolina L 71-75 39%    
  Feb 15, 2026 192   @ Charlotte L 71-73 45%    
  Feb 22, 2026 150   @ Tulsa L 72-76 37%    
  Feb 25, 2026 158   East Carolina W 74-72 58%    
  Mar 01, 2026 122   Wichita St. L 76-77 50%    
  Mar 08, 2026 172   @ Rice L 72-75 41%    
Projected Record 10 - 15 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 2.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.3 0.5 0.0 3.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.2 0.5 0.1 5.2 4th
5th 0.2 2.1 2.8 0.9 0.1 6.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 3.7 1.4 0.1 7.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 4.1 2.8 0.2 8.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 4.1 3.5 0.5 9.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.6 4.7 1.1 0.0 10.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.2 5.5 1.9 0.1 0.0 11.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 3.2 4.9 2.3 0.2 0.0 11.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.3 4.8 2.8 0.4 0.0 12.6 12th
13th 0.6 2.1 4.0 3.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 12.2 13th
Total 0.7 2.2 5.1 7.6 10.1 11.9 12.8 12.1 10.6 9.6 6.8 5.0 2.9 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 74.1% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 37.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 18.0% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 26.3% 26.3% 10.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 45.1% 22.7% 22.4% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 29.0%
14-4 0.6% 25.3% 16.5% 8.8% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 10.5%
13-5 1.6% 15.4% 15.0% 0.4% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.5%
12-6 2.9% 9.8% 9.6% 0.2% 11.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.6 0.3%
11-7 5.0% 8.0% 8.0% 12.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.6
10-8 6.8% 4.1% 4.1% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.5
9-9 9.6% 3.1% 3.1% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.3
8-10 10.6% 1.0% 1.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.5
7-11 12.1% 0.5% 0.5% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.1
6-12 12.8% 0.1% 0.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 12.8
5-13 11.9% 0.2% 0.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 11.9
4-14 10.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.1
3-15 7.6% 7.6
2-16 5.1% 5.1
1-17 2.2% 2.2
0-18 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 2.0% 1.9% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 98.0 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%