IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
UNC Greensboro
Southern
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-3.9	#232
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	61.6	#338
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.0	#258

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.9	#195

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	6.2%	11.2%	5.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.8	13.7	14.3

.500 or above	40.0%	71.1%	38.1%
.500 or above in Conference	51.1%	70.5%	49.9%
Conference Champion	7.7%	15.8%	7.2%
Last Place in Conference	8.6%	3.2%	9.0%

First Four	0.8%	0.7%	0.8%
First Round	6.1%	11.1%	5.7%
Second Round	0.3%	0.7%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Kansas St. (Away) - 5.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 3	3 - 7	4 - 11
Quad 4	10 - 6	14 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2025	57	@ Kansas St.	L	57-73	6%
Nov 08, 2025	224	Elon	W	66-63	60%
Nov 12, 2025	31	@ North Carolina St.	L	54-75	3%
Nov 15, 2025	272	Austin Peay	W	67-62	68%
Nov 20, 2025	242	@ Queens	L	68-70	42%
Nov 23, 2025	184	Youngstown St.	L	67-69	42%
Nov 25, 2025	236	Delaware	W	71-70	52%
Nov 26, 2025	125	Miami (OH)	L	65-71	29%
Dec 02, 2025	198	UNC Asheville	L	67-69	44%
Dec 06, 2025	158	@ East Carolina	L	61-68	28%
Dec 16, 2025	349	N.C. A&T	W	73-62	83%
Jan 01, 2026	134	Chattanooga	L	66-69	42%
Jan 03, 2026	171	Samford	W	72-71	50%
Jan 07, 2026	205	@ Wofford	L	62-66	36%
Jan 10, 2026	156	@ East Tennessee St.	L	60-67	28%
Jan 15, 2026	342	The Citadel	W	69-58	82%
Jan 17, 2026	246	Mercer	W	70-66	62%
Jan 21, 2026	293	@ VMI	W	67-66	51%
Jan 24, 2026	142	Furman	L	65-67	43%
Jan 29, 2026	246	@ Mercer	L	67-69	42%
Jan 31, 2026	342	@ The Citadel	W	66-61	65%
Feb 04, 2026	262	Western Carolina	W	71-66	65%
Feb 07, 2026	142	@ Furman	L	62-70	25%
Feb 11, 2026	293	VMI	W	70-64	70%
Feb 14, 2026	205	Wofford	W	65-63	55%
Feb 18, 2026	262	@ Western Carolina	L	68-69	45%
Feb 21, 2026	156	East Tennessee St.	L	63-64	47%
Feb 26, 2026	134	@ Chattanooga	L	63-72	24%
Feb 28, 2026	171	@ Samford	L	68-74	31%
Projected Record						13 - 16	9 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southern Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.1	0.7	1.5	2.1	1.8	1.0	0.4	0.1		7.7	1st
2nd										0.0	0.2	1.5	3.1	2.7	1.5	0.4	0.0				9.6	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.4	2.5	4.7	2.8	0.8	0.1						11.3	3rd
4th								0.0	0.4	2.9	4.8	2.8	0.6	0.0							11.6	4th
5th							0.0	0.6	3.3	5.2	2.8	0.4									12.3	5th
6th						0.0	0.7	3.4	5.2	2.6	0.3	0.0									12.2	6th
7th					0.0	0.9	3.6	4.7	2.2	0.3											11.7	7th
8th			0.0	0.1	1.0	3.2	3.8	1.7	0.2												10.1	8th
9th		0.0	0.4	1.4	2.8	2.7	1.0	0.1													8.5	9th
10th	0.1	0.7	1.4	1.5	1.1	0.3	0.0														5.1	10th

Total	0.1	0.7	1.8	3.1	4.9	7.1	9.2	10.5	11.3	11.4	10.5	9.5	7.2	5.1	3.7	2.2	1.0	0.4	0.1			Total

Southern Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.4		0.4
16-2	97.3%	1.0		0.9	0.1
15-3	82.0%	1.8		1.4	0.4	0.0
14-4	56.5%	2.1		1.2	0.8	0.1
13-5	29.8%	1.5		0.4	0.8	0.3	0.0	0.0
12-6	9.3%	0.7		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
11-7	1.1%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	7.7%	7.7		4.6	2.2	0.7	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		50.0%	50.0%		11.9											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.1
17-1	0.4%		47.3%	47.3%		11.8												0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.2
16-2	1.0%		39.1%	39.1%		12.5												0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0			0.6
15-3	2.2%		24.7%	24.7%		13.2													0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	1.7
14-4	3.7%		23.8%	23.8%		13.4													0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1		2.8
13-5	5.1%		18.3%	18.3%		14.2												0.0	0.0	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.1	4.2
12-6	7.2%		12.0%	12.0%		15.0													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.1	6.3
11-7	9.5%		7.3%	7.3%		16.4														0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	8.8
10-8	10.5%		5.4%	5.4%		16.0													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	9.9
9-9	11.4%		3.6%	3.6%		16.5														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	11.0
8-10	11.3%		3.0%	3.0%		17.4																0.1	0.3	11.0
7-11	10.5%		1.5%	1.5%		18.6																0.0	0.2	10.4
6-12	9.2%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.1	9.1
5-13	7.1%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	7.1
4-14	4.9%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	4.9
3-15	3.1%																							3.1
2-16	1.8%																							1.8
1-17	0.7%																							0.7
0-18	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		6.2%	6.2%	0.0%	14.8											0.0	0.1	0.6	1.3	1.6	1.5	1.3	93.8		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%