Preseason Rankings
UNLV
Mountain West
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.5#86
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.7#277
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#91
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#85
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.4% 1.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.8% 14.1% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.9% 7.2% 0.6%
Average Seed 9.6 9.6 10.8
.500 or above 69.0% 70.2% 37.7%
.500 or above in Conference 68.3% 69.0% 46.9%
Conference Champion 8.4% 8.6% 3.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 1.8% 4.6%
First Four2.8% 2.9% 0.2%
First Round12.4% 12.7% 3.4%
Second Round5.0% 5.2% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 1.4% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Martin (Home) - 96.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 23 - 45 - 10
Quad 36 - 311 - 13
Quad 46 - 117 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2025 325   Tennessee Martin W 77-58 97%    
  Nov 08, 2025 134   Chattanooga W 74-66 76%    
  Nov 11, 2025 183   Montana W 75-64 85%    
  Nov 16, 2025 51   @ Memphis L 69-76 26%    
  Nov 20, 2025 110   Saint Joseph's W 71-66 69%    
  Nov 24, 2025 40   Maryland L 67-73 29%    
  Nov 26, 2025 19   Alabama L 74-84 19%    
  Dec 07, 2025 99   @ Stanford L 66-68 44%    
  Dec 13, 2025 268   Tennessee St. W 79-64 91%    
  Dec 20, 2025 186   Fresno St. W 78-67 83%    
  Jan 03, 2026 277   Air Force W 73-57 91%    
  Jan 06, 2026 157   @ Wyoming W 67-64 61%    
  Jan 09, 2026 98   @ Colorado St. L 66-68 44%    
  Jan 13, 2026 62   Boise St. W 68-67 50%    
  Jan 17, 2026 159   @ San Jose St. W 70-66 63%    
  Jan 20, 2026 54   @ Utah St. L 68-75 29%    
  Jan 24, 2026 35   San Diego St. L 64-68 38%    
  Jan 27, 2026 81   New Mexico W 75-72 59%    
  Jan 30, 2026 104   @ Nevada L 64-65 45%    
  Feb 03, 2026 186   @ Fresno St. W 75-70 67%    
  Feb 07, 2026 78   Grand Canyon W 73-71 58%    
  Feb 10, 2026 159   San Jose St. W 73-63 79%    
  Feb 13, 2026 62   @ Boise St. L 65-71 31%    
  Feb 18, 2026 98   Colorado St. W 69-65 64%    
  Feb 21, 2026 277   @ Air Force W 70-60 78%    
  Feb 25, 2026 78   @ Grand Canyon L 70-74 38%    
  Feb 28, 2026 104   Nevada W 67-62 64%    
  Mar 03, 2026 54   Utah St. L 71-72 48%    
  Mar 06, 2026 35   @ San Diego St. L 61-71 22%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.4 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.1 8.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 2.7 3.8 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 10.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.2 3.9 1.8 0.4 11.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.8 5.0 4.0 1.2 0.1 12.4 4th
5th 0.2 2.0 4.6 3.9 0.9 0.1 11.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.5 3.4 0.8 0.1 11.0 6th
7th 0.3 2.0 3.8 3.1 0.9 0.0 10.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.6 2.4 0.6 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.6 1.9 0.5 0.0 7.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 2.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.7 4.1 5.8 7.8 8.8 10.6 10.9 11.2 10.2 8.2 7.0 5.0 2.9 1.6 0.7 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 99.0% 0.7    0.6 0.0
18-2 93.2% 1.4    1.3 0.2
17-3 76.1% 2.2    1.5 0.7 0.1
16-4 47.1% 2.4    1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0
15-5 18.5% 1.3    0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0
14-6 2.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.4% 8.4 5.2 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 61.5% 38.5% 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.7% 91.6% 34.7% 57.0% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 87.2%
18-2 1.6% 82.7% 31.8% 50.9% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 74.6%
17-3 2.9% 71.1% 24.5% 46.7% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.8 61.8%
16-4 5.0% 50.0% 20.3% 29.7% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.0 2.5 37.3%
15-5 7.0% 34.7% 17.0% 17.7% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.6 21.3%
14-6 8.2% 23.0% 14.7% 8.3% 10.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.3 9.7%
13-7 10.2% 11.5% 8.9% 2.6% 10.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.1 9.0 2.8%
12-8 11.2% 7.5% 6.5% 0.9% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 10.4 1.0%
11-9 10.9% 3.8% 3.1% 0.6% 11.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.5 0.7%
10-10 10.6% 2.3% 2.3% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.3
9-11 8.8% 1.2% 1.2% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.7
8-12 7.8% 0.6% 0.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7
7-13 5.8% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.7
6-14 4.1% 0.2% 0.2% 14.0 0.0 4.1
5-15 2.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.6
4-16 1.5% 1.5
3-17 0.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.7
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.8% 7.4% 6.4% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 2.1 3.2 4.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 86.2 6.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 3.5 50.0 50.0