Mississippi
Men - Women
2015 - 2016 - 2017
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RankNameGradeRating
28  Sean Tobin JR 31:24
41  MJ Erb SR 31:32
93  Robert Domanic SR 31:47
96  Wes Gallagher SR 31:49
228  Craig Engels SR 32:18
375  Ryan Manahan JR 32:41
405  Taylor Caldwell SO 32:44
411  Derek Gutierrez JR 32:45
444  Mark Robertson JR 32:49
591  Brandon Harvey SO 33:06
1,896  Nolan Hesse JR 34:59
2,192  Robinson Snider FR 35:32
National Rank #12 of 312
South Region Rank #1 of 40
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 100.0%
Most Likely Finish 12th at Nationals


National Champion 0.2%
Top 5 at Nationals 4.1%
Top 10 at Nationals 32.1%
Top 20 at Nationals 88.7%


Regional Champion 95.1%
Top 5 in Regional 100.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Sean Tobin MJ Erb Robert Domanic Wes Gallagher Craig Engels Ryan Manahan Taylor Caldwell Derek Gutierrez Mark Robertson Brandon Harvey Nolan Hesse
Joe Piane Invitational (Blue) 09/30 344 30:58 31:24 31:36 31:49 32:42 32:31 32:37 32:05
Penn State National Open 10/14 567 32:06 31:35 31:52 31:53 32:37 33:43 32:35 32:48 33:09 33:09
Alabama Crimson Classic 10/14 34:59
SEC Championship 10/28 151 30:28 30:36 31:13 31:33 31:21 31:37 32:53 32:19 32:33 33:01
South Region Championships 11/11 541 31:57 31:50 31:59 31:57 32:07 33:09 33:01





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 100% 13.5 377 0.2 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.3 3.4 5.0 6.0 6.8 6.8 7.7 7.9 6.7 6.7 5.5 5.6 5.2 4.2 4.5 2.9 2.5 2.5 1.8 1.4 1.0 0.5 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1
Region Championship 100% 1.1 39 95.1 4.8 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sean Tobin 100% 33.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 2.2 1.7 2.1 2.2
MJ Erb 100% 47.7 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.6 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.6
Robert Domanic 100% 85.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4
Wes Gallagher 100% 88.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2
Craig Engels 100% 162.8
Ryan Manahan 100% 206.9
Taylor Caldwell 100% 214.2


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sean Tobin 2.2 26.4 21.0 15.1 10.6 7.2 5.1 4.0 2.9 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1
MJ Erb 3.2 10.0 19.0 18.1 13.1 10.2 7.6 5.9 3.8 3.5 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Robert Domanic 6.4 0.9 3.4 8.1 11.5 12.4 10.1 10.8 8.5 6.7 5.7 4.4 3.4 2.6 2.4 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.2
Wes Gallagher 6.6 0.5 2.5 5.8 10.7 12.6 12.1 10.8 8.7 7.3 6.5 4.7 3.5 2.8 2.6 2.0 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3
Craig Engels 14.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 1.8 3.9 5.5 8.0 7.7 7.5 7.9 6.7 6.3 5.2 4.8 3.7 3.2 2.8 3.0 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.2
Ryan Manahan 24.8 0.3 0.1 0.7 1.1 1.6 3.0 3.0 3.8 3.4 4.4 3.9 4.2 4.7 5.3 4.6 3.1 3.8
Taylor Caldwell 27.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 2.0 2.2 2.6 3.2 3.4 4.6 4.1 3.6 4.1 3.8 4.4 2.8




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 95.1% 100.0% 95.1 95.1 1
2 4.8% 100.0% 4.8 4.8 2
3 0.1% 100.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 3
4 4
5 5
6 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
Total 100% 100.0% 95.1 4.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.9 0.1




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Eastern Kentucky 82.3% 1.0 0.8
UTEP 82.2% 1.0 0.8
North Carolina St. 81.2% 1.0 0.8
Washington St. 79.9% 1.0 0.8
Providence 78.3% 1.0 0.8
Southern Utah 71.5% 1.0 0.7
Texas 56.7% 2.0 1.1
Virginia 49.8% 1.0 0.5
Texas A&M 43.0% 2.0 0.9
Eastern Michigan 42.4% 1.0 0.4
Illinois 32.4% 1.0 0.3
Florida State 14.8% 1.0 0.1
Bradley 9.8% 1.0 0.1
Georgia 4.7% 1.0 0.0
Kentucky 2.8% 1.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 0.9% 1.0 0.0
Air Force 0.6% 1.0 0.0
Alabama 0.4% 2.0 0.0
Baylor 0.2% 1.0 0.0
California 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Purdue 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 8.3
Minimum 4.0
Maximum 12.0