Providence
Men - Women
2015 - 2016 - 2017
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
103  Julian Oakley SR 31:50
150  Hugh Armstrong SR 32:02
267  Trevor Crawley SR 32:25
268  Stephen Robertson SR 32:25
276  Aaron Hanlon JR 32:26
621  Tom O'Neill JR 33:09
714  Michael O'Leary SO 33:19
778  Marcus Karamanolis FR 33:26
786  Nick Carleo FR 33:27
1,031  Austin Scola SO 33:47
National Rank #35 of 312
Northeast Region Rank #3 of 41
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 79.1%
Most Likely Finish 29th at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.1%
Top 20 at Nationals 10.2%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 93.8%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Julian Oakley Hugh Armstrong Trevor Crawley Stephen Robertson Aaron Hanlon Tom O'Neill Michael O'Leary Marcus Karamanolis Nick Carleo Austin Scola
Coast-to-Coast Battle in Beantown 09/16 705 31:52 32:36 32:05 32:33 32:10 33:13 32:59 32:43 33:43 33:54
Joe Piane Invitational (Blue) 09/30 569 31:46 31:58 31:53 32:22 32:03 33:36 33:05 32:45
Nuttycombe Wisconsin Invitational 10/14 686 32:01 31:37 32:38 32:14 32:41 34:24 34:37
Big East Conference Championships 10/28 845 31:55 32:19 32:57 32:40 32:58 33:07 33:33 34:04 33:03 33:58
Northeast Region Championships 11/11 639 31:37 31:47 32:28 32:16 32:35 33:21 32:55





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 79.1% 25.4 613 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.3 1.0 1.6 2.0 2.6 3.5 3.5 4.8 5.7 6.5 7.9 7.4 8.1 9.9 7.3 4.5
Region Championship 100% 3.7 124 3.2 48.7 27.4 14.5 4.6 1.6 0.1 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Julian Oakley 88.8% 88.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3
Hugh Armstrong 84.1% 119.0 0.1
Trevor Crawley 79.2% 173.6
Stephen Robertson 79.1% 171.7
Aaron Hanlon 79.1% 175.5
Tom O'Neill 79.2% 236.0
Michael O'Leary 79.8% 241.4


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Julian Oakley 9.2 0.7 2.5 4.6 6.3 8.7 9.2 9.7 7.6 6.1 6.0 4.7 3.4 3.5 3.0 3.0 2.4 1.2 1.8 1.4 1.7 1.0 0.9 1.2 0.7
Hugh Armstrong 13.2 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.5 3.1 5.1 5.4 8.2 7.4 6.9 5.3 4.4 4.4 4.7 3.2 3.2 3.4 2.7 2.6 1.7 1.4 2.0 2.1 1.9
Trevor Crawley 26.7 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.9 1.0 1.9 1.9 2.6 3.1 2.0 3.4 3.2 3.3 4.0 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.9
Stephen Robertson 27.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.7 4.2 2.9 2.5 3.4 3.0 3.6 4.6 3.5 3.0 3.1
Aaron Hanlon 28.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.8 1.7 2.2 2.5 2.5 3.4 4.3 3.3 2.9 3.4 2.7 3.2 2.6 3.4
Tom O'Neill 69.7
Michael O'Leary 82.2




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 3.2% 100.0% 3.2 3.2 2
3 48.7% 99.7% 2.9 6.5 6.2 6.5 6.4 6.0 4.7 3.8 2.2 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.2 48.6 3
4 27.4% 98.4% 1.4 3.1 3.2 3.7 3.3 3.1 2.5 2.3 2.3 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 27.0 4
5 14.5% 2.8% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 14.1 0.4 5
6 4.6% 4.6 6
7 1.6% 1.6 7
8 0.1% 0.1 8
9 0.1% 0.1 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
Total 100% 79.1% 3.2 2.9 7.8 9.3 9.7 10.1 9.3 7.8 6.4 4.5 3.8 2.2 1.5 0.8 21.0 3.2 75.9




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Arkansas 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Eastern Kentucky 82.3% 1.0 0.8
North Carolina St. 81.2% 2.0 1.6
Washington St. 79.9% 1.0 0.8
Southern Utah 71.5% 1.0 0.7
Texas 56.7% 1.0 0.6
Princeton 43.8% 1.0 0.4
Texas A&M 43.0% 2.0 0.9
Eastern Michigan 42.4% 1.0 0.4
Penn 36.5% 1.0 0.4
Illinois 32.4% 2.0 0.6
Florida State 14.8% 2.0 0.3
Bradley 9.8% 1.0 0.1
Minnesota 8.2% 1.0 0.1
Columbia 1.7% 1.0 0.0
Air Force 0.6% 1.0 0.0
South Dakota St. 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Alabama 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Baylor 0.2% 1.0 0.0
California 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Brown 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Purdue 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 8.8
Minimum 4.0
Maximum 15.0