Stanford
Men - Women
2015 - 2016 - 2017
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RankNameGradeRating
21  Fiona O'Keeffe FR 19:34
24  Vanessa Fraser SR 19:38
49  Christina Aragon FR 19:47
74  Ella Donaghu FR 19:56
92  Danielle Katz SR 20:01
257  Abbie McNulty JR 20:27
308  Julia Maxwell JR 20:35
384  Hannah DeBalsi FR 20:43
391  Sophie Chase SR 20:44
476  Maddy Berkson SO 20:54
585  Catherine Pagano SO 21:04
National Rank #2 of 344
West Region Rank #1 of 39
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 99.2%
Most Likely Finish 2nd at Nationals


National Champion 5.2%
Top 5 at Nationals 64.2%
Top 10 at Nationals 89.2%
Top 20 at Nationals 98.6%


Regional Champion 33.4%
Top 5 in Regional 97.3%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Fiona O'Keeffe Vanessa Fraser Christina Aragon Ella Donaghu Danielle Katz Abbie McNulty Julia Maxwell Hannah DeBalsi Sophie Chase Maddy Berkson Catherine Pagano
Stanford Invitational 10/01 542 19:53 20:07 20:25 20:57 21:04 21:07
ISU adidas Pre Nationals (Open) 10/15 20:39 20:26
ISU adidas Pre Nationals (Blue) 10/15 398 19:45 19:59 20:03 19:51 20:24 20:42 20:39
Pac-12 Conference 10/28 239 19:32 19:18 19:39 19:52 20:10 20:22 20:36 20:52 21:05
West Region Championships 11/11 190 19:36 19:27 19:44 19:50 19:36 20:22





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 99.2% 5.3 225 5.2 20.9 16.2 12.0 10.0 7.3 6.5 4.6 3.6 3.1 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1
Region Championship 100% 2.4 91 33.4 25.3 18.9 12.8 7.0 1.9 0.8 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Fiona O'Keeffe 99.9% 26.0 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.9 1.4 1.6 1.5 2.0 2.5 1.9 2.5 2.4 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.3 1.9 2.6 2.7 2.2 2.8 1.9 2.0 2.3
Vanessa Fraser 99.6% 32.5 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.8 1.0 2.0 1.4 1.8 2.1 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.4 2.0 2.3 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.7
Christina Aragon 99.3% 51.7 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.9 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.8 1.1 1.3
Ella Donaghu 99.2% 74.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4
Danielle Katz 99.2% 92.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4
Abbie McNulty 99.2% 173.1
Julia Maxwell 99.2% 189.7


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Fiona O'Keeffe 8.6 2.9 3.7 4.5 6.4 7.2 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.2 6.0 5.6 4.8 5.2 3.6 3.1 2.5 2.7 3.0 1.4 2.0 1.3 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.6
Vanessa Fraser 10.0 1.5 2.2 4.1 5.5 5.4 6.0 6.1 6.5 6.3 6.5 6.2 5.5 4.0 4.4 4.4 3.4 3.2 2.6 2.1 2.4 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.4
Christina Aragon 15.7 0.3 1.1 0.9 1.2 2.1 2.5 3.4 3.2 4.2 4.7 4.2 4.5 5.6 4.2 4.8 4.8 4.4 4.2 4.4 3.1 3.2 3.5 2.3 3.1 2.3
Ella Donaghu 22.2 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.6 1.3 1.6 2.1 2.1 3.0 2.6 3.5 3.6 3.5 4.0 3.7 3.0 3.8 3.4 3.1 3.5 4.1 4.0 2.8
Danielle Katz 26.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.2 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.5 2.1 2.8 2.9 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.1 3.8 3.5
Abbie McNulty 52.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.4
Julia Maxwell 59.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 33.4% 100.0% 33.4 33.4 1
2 25.3% 100.0% 25.3 25.3 2
3 18.9% 99.7% 0.9 1.2 1.9 2.3 2.0 3.0 2.5 2.2 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 18.8 3
4 12.8% 99.6% 0.7 1.4 1.1 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 12.7 4
5 7.0% 96.4% 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 6.8 5
6 1.9% 89.5% 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 1.7 6
7 0.8% 68.8% 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 7
8 0.1% 100.0% 0.1 0.1 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
Total 100% 99.2% 33.4 25.3 0.9 1.9 3.4 3.7 4.3 5.5 5.1 4.6 3.4 3.3 2.2 1.6 1.0 0.8 58.7 40.6




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Oregon 96.6% 1.0 1.0
Eastern Michigan 89.5% 1.0 0.9
Utah 84.5% 1.0 0.8
Miss State 82.8% 1.0 0.8
UCLA 54.6% 1.0 0.5
California 28.9% 2.0 0.6
Florida 27.8% 1.0 0.3
Furman 25.1% 1.0 0.3
Virginia 24.8% 1.0 0.2
Missouri 24.4% 1.0 0.2
Eastern Kentucky 12.1% 1.0 0.1
Louisville 9.3% 1.0 0.1
Air Force 8.9% 1.0 0.1
Rice 5.9% 1.0 0.1
Kansas 5.6% 1.0 0.1
Ohio State 3.8% 1.0 0.0
Colorado St. 2.1% 1.0 0.0
Butler 1.7% 1.0 0.0
Oklahoma 1.0% 1.0 0.0
Dartmouth 0.8% 1.0 0.0
Brown 0.6% 1.0 0.0
Indiana 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Elon 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Clemson 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Purdue 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 6.2
Minimum 2.0
Maximum 11.0