Oregon
Men - Women
2015 - 2016 - 2017
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
11  Katie Rainsberger FR 19:26
34  Alli Cash JR 19:42
60  Samantha Nadel SR 19:51
127  Jessica Hull SO 20:08
163  Maggie Schmaedick SR 20:13
177  Emma Abrahamson JR 20:16
215  Ashley Maton SR 20:20
345  Frida Berge JR 20:39
1,365  Perrin Xthona FR 21:54
National Rank #4 of 344
West Region Rank #3 of 39
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 98.3%
Most Likely Finish 3rd at Nationals


National Champion 2.2%
Top 5 at Nationals 45.5%
Top 10 at Nationals 80.6%
Top 20 at Nationals 97.2%


Regional Champion 16.1%
Top 5 in Regional 93.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Katie Rainsberger Alli Cash Samantha Nadel Jessica Hull Maggie Schmaedick Emma Abrahamson Ashley Maton Frida Berge Perrin Xthona
UW Invitational 10/01 463 19:30 20:23 20:09 20:18 20:14 20:12 20:31 21:28
ISU adidas Pre Nationals (Open) 10/15 20:49 21:40
ISU adidas Pre Nationals (Blue) 10/15 297 19:26 20:04 19:35 19:56 20:07 20:13 20:28
Pac-12 Conference 10/28 264 19:13 19:38 19:57 20:03 20:01 19:58 20:30 20:54 23:34
West Region Championships 11/11 301 19:35 19:26 19:41 20:09 20:24 20:45 20:14





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 98.3% 6.9 266 2.2 10.1 11.8 11.6 9.8 8.7 8.0 8.0 5.3 5.2 3.3 2.4 3.1 2.1 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
Region Championship 100% 3.1 107 16.1 22.5 24.0 18.5 12.0 4.4 2.2 0.5 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Katie Rainsberger 99.9% 15.5 1.4 3.2 2.6 3.4 3.8 4.0 4.5 4.1 3.2 3.9 3.7 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.2 3.1 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.2 1.9 2.1 2.3 1.7
Alli Cash 98.8% 40.6 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.6 1.5 2.0 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 2.0
Samantha Nadel 98.3% 63.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.9
Jessica Hull 98.3% 112.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Maggie Schmaedick 98.3% 129.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Emma Abrahamson 98.3% 138.2
Ashley Maton 98.3% 154.0


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Katie Rainsberger 4.9 8.5 10.0 11.1 10.7 10.6 8.7 7.7 5.8 4.7 3.6 4.1 3.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2
Alli Cash 12.7 0.6 1.8 1.4 3.4 4.1 3.7 5.2 4.5 5.2 5.3 6.0 5.3 5.1 5.4 5.0 4.3 3.8 3.0 3.3 3.3 2.2 2.0 2.3 2.0 2.0
Samantha Nadel 18.7 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.9 2.8 2.5 2.6 2.8 4.4 3.6 3.9 3.8 4.7 4.0 4.3 3.9 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.8 2.5 2.8 2.8
Jessica Hull 33.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.8 1.4 1.9 1.5 2.3 1.7 2.6 2.9 2.6 2.6
Maggie Schmaedick 37.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.7 2.2 2.4
Emma Abrahamson 41.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.4 1.3
Ashley Maton 45.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.3




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 16.1% 100.0% 16.1 16.1 1
2 22.5% 100.0% 22.5 22.5 2
3 24.0% 100.0% 8.4 5.5 3.4 2.9 1.8 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 24.0 3
4 18.5% 100.0% 4.2 4.0 2.6 2.1 1.4 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 18.5 4
5 12.0% 98.3% 1.4 1.6 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.2 11.8 5
6 4.4% 87.4% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.6 3.8 6
7 2.2% 69.8% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.5 7
8 0.5% 44.4% 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 8
9 0.1% 50.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
Total 100% 98.3% 16.1 22.5 8.4 9.7 8.7 7.1 5.1 4.0 4.1 2.8 2.1 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.7 38.6 59.7




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Arkansas 99.8% 1.0 1.0
Michigan 98.8% 1.0 1.0
Stanford 97.4% 1.0 1.0
Portland 93.6% 1.0 0.9
Eastern Michigan 89.5% 1.0 0.9
Utah 84.5% 1.0 0.8
Miss State 82.8% 1.0 0.8
Harvard 74.3% 1.0 0.7
UCLA 54.6% 1.0 0.5
California 28.9% 2.0 0.6
Florida 27.8% 1.0 0.3
Furman 25.1% 1.0 0.3
Virginia 24.8% 1.0 0.2
Missouri 24.4% 1.0 0.2
Eastern Kentucky 12.1% 1.0 0.1
Louisville 9.3% 1.0 0.1
Air Force 8.9% 1.0 0.1
Rice 5.9% 1.0 0.1
Kansas 5.6% 1.0 0.1
Ohio State 3.8% 1.0 0.0
Colorado St. 2.1% 2.0 0.0
Butler 1.7% 1.0 0.0
Oklahoma 1.0% 1.0 0.0
Dartmouth 0.8% 1.0 0.0
Brown 0.6% 1.0 0.0
Indiana 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Elon 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Clemson 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Purdue 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 9.9
Minimum 5.0
Maximum 15.0