Stanford
Men - Women
2015 - 2016 - 2017
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RankNameGradeRating
4  Grant Fisher SO 30:59
5  Sean McGorty SR 31:00
11  Thomas Ratcliffe FR 31:11
42  Garrett Sweatt SR 31:33
134  Steven Fahy SO 31:58
162  Alex Ostberg FR 32:05
177  Sam Wharton JR 32:09
179  Jack Keelan JR 32:09
262  Will Lauer FR 32:24
418  Blair Hurlock SO 32:46
National Rank #4 of 312
West Region Rank #1 of 32
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 100.0%
Most Likely Finish 1st at Nationals


National Champion 16.3%
Top 5 at Nationals 75.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 96.9%
Top 20 at Nationals 100.0%


Regional Champion 67.0%
Top 5 in Regional 99.7%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Grant Fisher Sean McGorty Thomas Ratcliffe Garrett Sweatt Steven Fahy Alex Ostberg Sam Wharton Jack Keelan Will Lauer Blair Hurlock
Panorama Farms Invitational 09/23 664 31:24 31:44 32:30 32:04
Stanford Invitational 10/01 1146 33:15
Nuttycombe Wisconsin Invitational (B Race) 10/14 32:06
Nuttycombe Wisconsin Invitational 10/14 201 30:50 30:54 31:29 32:10 31:33 31:31 32:41
Pac-12 Conference 10/28 206 30:49 31:01 31:12 31:34 31:39 32:06 32:34 32:18 32:09
West Region Championships 11/11 333 31:31 31:31 31:45 31:44 32:10 31:31 34:08





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 100.0% 4.1 179 16.3 15.9 16.2 13.7 12.9 8.5 5.9 3.5 2.5 1.6 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1
Region Championship 100% 1.5 59 67.0 21.1 7.2 3.5 1.0 0.3



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Grant Fisher 100.0% 7.9 2.8 6.8 10.3 9.4 6.0 5.4 4.9 4.9 4.1 2.6 3.1 1.8 2.6 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.6 1.2
Sean McGorty 100% 9.2 1.1 6.5 9.1 8.7 6.6 6.3 4.0 3.9 3.4 3.6 3.1 2.2 2.1 2.5 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9
Thomas Ratcliffe 100% 17.2 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.6 5.0 4.4 4.6 4.0 3.7 4.1 2.4 3.3 2.9 2.9 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.6 1.8 2.4 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.2 1.5
Garrett Sweatt 100.0% 50.5 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.7 1.4 1.4 0.8 1.8 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2
Steven Fahy 100.0% 113.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Alex Ostberg 100.0% 131.4 0.1
Sam Wharton 100.0% 141.8


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Grant Fisher 2.6 7.4 31.2 18.1 10.3 7.0 4.9 4.0 3.1 1.3 2.0 1.2 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1
Sean McGorty 2.8 6.7 27.0 21.5 11.7 5.9 4.5 3.4 2.7 3.1 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.2 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2
Thomas Ratcliffe 4.5 1.1 11.3 17.3 15.8 10.4 6.8 4.8 3.9 3.6 2.8 3.5 1.8 2.3 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6
Garrett Sweatt 12.3 0.1 1.1 3.0 5.4 6.8 6.2 7.1 5.4 5.4 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.3 2.7 2.1 2.7 1.8 1.8 1.3
Steven Fahy 29.6 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.8 2.7 1.7 2.8 3.0 2.5 2.1 3.1 4.1 3.4 2.8
Alex Ostberg 35.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.5 3.1
Sam Wharton 37.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.6 1.6 2.2 1.8 1.9 2.8




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 67.0% 100.0% 67.0 67.0 1
2 21.1% 100.0% 21.1 21.1 2
3 7.2% 100.0% 4.8 2.3 0.2 7.2 3
4 3.5% 100.0% 1.2 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 3.5 4
5 1.0% 94.7% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9 5
6 0.3% 100.0% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
Total 100% 100.0% 67.0 21.1 4.8 3.4 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 88.1 11.9




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Syracuse 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Iona 100.0% 1.0 1.0
BYU 99.4% 1.0 1.0
Georgetown 99.1% 1.0 1.0
Wisconsin 99.1% 1.0 1.0
Portland 98.2% 1.0 1.0
UCLA 95.5% 2.0 1.9
Iowa State 95.0% 1.0 1.0
Michigan State 92.4% 1.0 0.9
Boise State 89.6% 1.0 0.9
Colorado St. 85.2% 1.0 0.9
Eastern Kentucky 82.3% 1.0 0.8
North Carolina St. 81.2% 1.0 0.8
Washington St. 79.9% 2.0 1.6
Providence 78.3% 1.0 0.8
Oregon 72.7% 1.0 0.7
Southern Utah 71.5% 1.0 0.7
Tulsa 68.5% 1.0 0.7
Princeton 43.8% 1.0 0.4
Texas A&M 43.0% 1.0 0.4
Eastern Michigan 42.4% 1.0 0.4
Penn 36.5% 1.0 0.4
Illinois 32.4% 1.0 0.3
Washington 16.7% 2.0 0.3
Florida State 14.8% 1.0 0.1
Minnesota 8.2% 1.0 0.1
Columbia 1.7% 1.0 0.0
South Dakota St. 0.5% 1.0 0.0
California 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 20.2
Minimum 14.0
Maximum 26.0