Harvard
Men - Women
2015 - 2016 - 2017
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
26  Courtney Smith JR 19:39
169  Lisa Tertsch FR 20:14
178  Judy Pendergast FR 20:16
187  Erin Dietz FR 20:17
286  Elianna Shwayder JR 20:32
600  Eliza Rego FR 21:05
712  Gillian Meeks FR 21:13
1,269  Brooke Starn FR 21:49
1,297  Fiona Davis JR 21:50
1,480  Madeleine Ankhelyi SR 22:01
National Rank #20 of 344
Northeast Region Rank #2 of 43
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 81.3%
Most Likely Finish 22nd at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 1.2%
Top 10 at Nationals 9.5%
Top 20 at Nationals 43.6%


Regional Champion 11.2%
Top 5 in Regional 98.9%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Courtney Smith Lisa Tertsch Judy Pendergast Erin Dietz Elianna Shwayder Eliza Rego Gillian Meeks Brooke Starn Fiona Davis Madeleine Ankhelyi
Hyp 09/17 981 20:15 20:34 21:12 21:13 22:56 21:43 21:35
UW Invitational 10/01 586 19:34 20:08 20:25 20:27 20:41 21:08 21:37 20:53 21:56
NEICAAA Championship 10/08 1136 20:39 21:16 21:49 21:19 21:57
Nuttycombe Wisconsin Invitational (B Race) 10/14 21:23 21:25 22:47
Nuttycombe Wisconsin Invitational 10/14 584 19:19 20:10 20:39 20:22 20:36 21:06 21:48
Ivy League Championship 10/29 476 19:48 20:15 20:07 20:06 20:19 21:02 21:03 22:18 21:58 22:24
Northeast Region Championships 11/11 485 19:31 20:29 19:54 20:13 20:23 20:42 20:47





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 81.3% 19.2 480 0.1 0.5 0.7 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.7 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.7 3.5 3.7 4.3 3.5 3.3 4.1 4.5 4.4 5.1 4.9 3.8 3.6 4.5 3.8 2.9 2.0 1.9 1.2
Region Championship 100% 2.5 88 11.2 48.9 28.1 7.8 3.0 0.9 0.3 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Courtney Smith 100.0% 36.4 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.8 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.9 2.0 1.7
Lisa Tertsch 81.9% 128.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Judy Pendergast 81.8% 133.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Erin Dietz 81.7% 138.1 0.1
Elianna Shwayder 81.3% 180.8
Eliza Rego 81.3% 234.5
Gillian Meeks 81.3% 240.0


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Courtney Smith 2.3 17.3 26.8 18.7 13.4 6.7 5.0 3.6 2.6 2.0 1.0 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1
Lisa Tertsch 14.4 0.2 1.1 2.0 3.0 2.4 3.7 4.9 5.2 6.0 5.4 4.9 5.2 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.0 3.1 3.8 3.6 2.9 2.7 2.1 2.5 1.8
Judy Pendergast 15.7 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.4 2.9 2.6 5.0 4.0 4.9 4.6 4.9 4.5 4.8 4.8 3.9 4.3 3.3 3.9 3.0 2.8 3.3 3.5 2.9 2.2
Erin Dietz 16.5 0.1 0.9 0.9 1.6 2.5 2.5 3.4 3.4 4.8 4.9 4.1 4.6 5.1 5.1 4.5 3.6 4.1 4.6 3.7 2.5 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.2
Elianna Shwayder 28.5 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.5 2.3 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.2 2.8 3.3 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.6 3.0
Eliza Rego 65.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
Gillian Meeks 77.3 0.1




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 11.2% 100.0% 11.2 11.2 1
2 48.9% 100.0% 48.9 48.9 2
3 28.1% 63.1% 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.5 1.8 1.7 2.0 3.0 4.9 10.4 17.7 3
4 7.8% 40.0% 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.8 4.7 3.1 4
5 3.0% 15.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.6 0.5 5
6 0.9% 0.9 6
7 0.3% 0.3 7
8 0.1% 0.1 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
42 42
43 43
Total 100% 81.3% 11.2 48.9 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.8 1.2 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.7 3.4 5.7 18.7 60.1 21.3




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Michigan State 96.5% 1.0 1.0
Yale 92.0% 1.0 0.9
Penn 68.6% 1.0 0.7
Boise State 60.0% 1.0 0.6
Minnesota 31.9% 1.0 0.3
Georgetown 22.0% 1.0 0.2
SMU 16.3% 1.0 0.2
Wisconsin 14.5% 1.0 0.1
Vanderbilt 6.1% 1.0 0.1
Tulsa 3.4% 1.0 0.0
Cornell 2.7% 1.0 0.0
Syracuse 2.3% 1.0 0.0
Colorado St. 2.1% 1.0 0.0
Dartmouth 0.8% 1.0 0.0
Brown 0.6% 1.0 0.0
Florida State 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 4.2
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 8.0