Ivy League
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
134 Yale 46.3%   15   7 - 8 2 - 0 15 - 12 10 - 4 +2.1      +1.1 147 +1.0 142 71.6 97 -0.1 171 +14.6 1
144 Princeton 32.7%   12 - 3 4 - 0 17 - 7 9 - 4 +1.1      +3.7 79 -2.6 256 68.1 191 +6.4 87 +8.9 2
179 Harvard 10.9%   7 - 5 2 - 1 12 - 10 7 - 6 -0.7      0.0 177 -0.6 190 69.3 157 -0.3 175 -0.8 3
181 Brown 2.6%   7 - 11 1 - 4 13 - 14 7 - 7 -0.7      -2.0 230 +1.3 136 69.3 158 -1.6 195 -6.5 7
211 Penn 5.2%   6 - 12 3 - 2 10 - 17 7 - 7 -2.3      +0.5 164 -2.8 259 69.3 159 -3.6 233 -3.1 4
229 Cornell 1.5%   7 - 6 1 - 3 12 - 11 6 - 8 -3.4      0.0 175 -3.4 283 78.7 11 +1.0 155 -6.1 6
243 Dartmouth 0.7%   3 - 11 1 - 3 7 - 17 5 - 9 -4.5      -4.1 284 -0.4 182 62.0 331 -6.9 280 -7.6 8
337 Columbia 0.0%   3 - 11 1 - 2 5 - 20 3 - 11 -11.7      -5.1 312 -6.6 337 71.2 110 -12.4 330 -3.5 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
Yale 1.7 61.5 21.1 9.1 4.4 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1
Princeton 2.1 38.9 34.9 14.5 6.9 2.9 1.3 0.5 0.0
Harvard 3.6 11.1 19.5 22.3 17.6 14.0 9.7 5.2 0.7
Brown 4.3 3.0 11.5 20.5 22.7 18.6 13.8 8.3 1.7
Penn 3.9 7.0 15.4 20.2 20.3 17.6 12.2 6.4 0.8
Cornell 4.9 2.2 8.0 13.6 16.2 18.0 19.4 17.1 5.6
Dartmouth 5.6 1.2 3.6 7.4 11.8 16.5 22.9 26.6 10.0
Columbia 7.4 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 4.2 9.0 19.7 63.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0
Yale 10 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.2 5.8 10.6 16.6 20.8 19.8 14.1 7.4 1.8
Princeton 9 - 5 0.1 0.9 3.2 9.4 16.9 22.9 22.7 15.1 7.2 1.6
Harvard 7 - 7 0.1 0.8 3.4 9.0 16.0 21.4 20.7 16.0 8.8 3.1 0.5
Brown 7 - 7 0.0 0.2 1.6 6.1 13.0 21.7 25.7 19.9 9.7 2.1
Penn 7 - 7 0.8 4.6 12.2 19.9 23.4 20.0 12.2 5.3 1.4 0.2
Cornell 6 - 8 0.2 1.6 5.9 12.8 18.5 21.9 19.0 12.2 5.9 1.7 0.3
Dartmouth 5 - 9 0.5 3.4 10.6 18.6 23.2 20.7 13.9 6.4 2.2 0.5 0.1
Columbia 3 - 11 13.3 25.2 26.3 18.9 9.6 4.5 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Yale 61.5% 46.3 12.0 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
Princeton 38.9% 24.4 11.4 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Harvard 11.1% 4.7 4.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Brown 3.0% 0.7 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0
Penn 7.0% 2.7 2.5 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Cornell 2.2% 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0
Dartmouth 1.2% 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Columbia 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Yale 46.3% 46.3% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.5 6.0 18.9 18.8 2.0 53.7 0.0%
Princeton 32.7% 32.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.5 6.5 16.6 8.7 0.3 67.3 0.0%
Harvard 10.9% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.8 3.6 5.4 1.1 89.1 0.0%
Brown 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.6 97.4 0.0%
Penn 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 4.6 94.8 0.0%
Cornell 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.2 98.5 0.0%
Dartmouth 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 99.3 0.0%
Columbia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Yale 46.3% 0.2% 46.2% 4.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Princeton 32.7% 0.0% 32.7% 2.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Harvard 10.9% 0.1% 10.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Brown 2.6% 0.1% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn 5.2% 3.8% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cornell 1.5% 0.0% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dartmouth 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Columbia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 98.4% 1.0 1.6 98.4
2nd Round 7.9% 0.1 92.1 7.9
Sweet Sixteen 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0