Yale
Ivy League
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.1#134
Expected Predictive Rating-0.1#171
Pace71.6#97
Improvement+0.0#182

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#147
First Shot+0.8#151
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#156
Layup/Dunks-2.4#277
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#286
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#64
Freethrows+1.8#57
Improvement-0.3#197

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#142
First Shot+1.4#129
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#212
Layups/Dunks+1.8#115
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#177
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#151
Freethrows-1.5#282
Improvement+0.3#167
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 46.3% 58.1% 31.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.5
.500 or above 80.5% 90.3% 68.6%
.500 or above in Conference 96.9% 99.0% 94.3%
Conference Champion 61.5% 72.9% 47.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.5%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round46.2% 58.0% 31.8%
Second Round4.2% 5.4% 2.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.2% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Penn (Away) - 55.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 34 - 45 - 10
Quad 410 - 215 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 154   Massachusetts W 91-71 65%     1 - 0 +18.0 +5.8 +10.9
  Nov 14, 2021 23   @ Seton Hall L 44-80 11%     1 - 1 -20.6 -25.0 +7.0
  Nov 16, 2021 246   @ Siena W 82-54 66%     2 - 1 +25.9 +13.6 +13.4
  Nov 19, 2021 79   @ Vermont L 53-61 23%     2 - 2 +1.7 -10.8 +11.9
  Nov 23, 2021 142   Southern Utah L 85-88 OT 53%     2 - 3 -1.8 +0.4 -1.8
  Nov 24, 2021 269   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 69-56 77%     3 - 3 +7.2 +2.0 +6.7
  Nov 28, 2021 224   Stony Brook L 81-85 76%     3 - 4 -9.4 +2.6 -11.9
  Dec 01, 2021 294   Lehigh W 82-72 87%     4 - 4 -0.3 +1.6 -2.3
  Dec 04, 2021 8   @ Auburn L 64-86 5%     4 - 5 -1.7 -2.2 +1.7
  Dec 07, 2021 255   Albany W 71-52 82%     5 - 5 +11.5 -1.4 +13.1
  Dec 12, 2021 90   Iona L 77-91 34%     5 - 6 -7.6 +2.4 -9.1
  Dec 14, 2021 137   Monmouth L 60-69 61%     5 - 7 -9.9 -12.1 +2.2
  Dec 28, 2021 38   @ St. Mary's L 60-87 15%     5 - 8 -13.8 -5.0 -7.6
  Jan 15, 2022 229   Cornell W 96-69 78%     6 - 8 1 - 0 +21.1 +6.7 +11.1
  Jan 17, 2022 181   @ Brown W 66-63 51%     7 - 8 2 - 0 +4.8 -2.4 +7.3
  Jan 22, 2022 211   @ Penn W 74-72 55%    
  Jan 25, 2022 337   Columbia W 81-65 94%    
  Jan 29, 2022 144   @ Princeton L 73-75 43%    
  Feb 04, 2022 243   Dartmouth W 70-61 81%    
  Feb 05, 2022 179   Harvard W 75-70 70%    
  Feb 09, 2022 179   @ Harvard W 73-72 50%    
  Feb 12, 2022 337   @ Columbia W 79-68 83%    
  Feb 18, 2022 211   Penn W 77-70 75%    
  Feb 19, 2022 144   Princeton W 76-73 65%    
  Feb 22, 2022 243   @ Dartmouth W 68-64 63%    
  Feb 26, 2022 229   @ Cornell W 80-77 59%    
  Mar 05, 2022 181   Brown W 73-68 71%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 10 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.3 5.0 14.4 18.5 14.1 7.4 1.8 61.5 1st
2nd 0.1 3.9 9.5 6.2 1.3 0.1 21.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.6 5.2 2.1 0.1 9.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.8 1.2 0.0 4.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.2 0.0 2.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.1 1.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.2 5.8 10.6 16.6 20.8 19.8 14.1 7.4 1.8 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 1.8    1.8
13-1 100.0% 7.4    7.4
12-2 99.6% 14.1    13.5 0.6
11-3 93.4% 18.5    15.4 3.1 0.0
10-4 69.4% 14.4    7.4 6.2 0.8 0.0
9-5 30.2% 5.0    0.7 2.2 1.7 0.4
8-6 2.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 61.5% 61.5 46.3 12.0 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 1.8% 100.0% 100.0% 12.9 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.3
13-1 7.4% 100.0% 100.0% 13.7 0.1 2.5 4.2 0.6
12-2 14.1% 95.8% 95.8% 14.1 0.0 2.0 8.1 3.4 0.1 0.6
11-3 19.8% 77.8% 77.8% 14.6 0.0 0.5 5.8 8.6 0.6 4.4
10-4 20.8% 35.8% 35.8% 15.0 0.0 0.6 5.9 0.9 13.3
9-5 16.6% 4.4% 4.4% 15.6 0.3 0.4 15.9
8-6 10.6% 10.6
7-7 5.8% 5.8
6-8 2.2% 2.2
5-9 0.6% 0.6
4-10 0.2% 0.2
3-11 0.1% 0.1
2-12 0.0% 0.0
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 46.3% 46.3% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.5 6.0 18.9 18.8 2.0 53.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.8% 100.0% 12.9 1.5 21.6 61.7 15.2