Penn
Ivy League
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.3#211
Expected Predictive Rating-3.6#233
Pace69.3#159
Improvement+0.9#137

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#164
First Shot-0.4#192
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#109
Layup/Dunks+0.9#136
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#311
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#67
Freethrows-2.3#324
Improvement-0.7#227

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#259
First Shot-2.9#272
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#164
Layups/Dunks-3.4#299
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#287
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#123
Freethrows+0.5#153
Improvement+1.6#88
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.2% 9.8% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 15.9
.500 or above 1.6% 3.2% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 62.6% 79.9% 48.5%
Conference Champion 7.0% 12.9% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.9% 0.9% 4.4%
First Four3.8% 6.9% 1.2%
First Round4.0% 7.6% 1.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Yale (Home) - 44.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 50 - 8
Quad 33 - 63 - 15
Quad 47 - 210 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 42   @ Florida St. L 70-105 9%     0 - 1 -22.1 -4.5 -13.2
  Nov 12, 2021 123   @ George Mason L 66-87 23%     0 - 2 -15.6 -8.6 -5.6
  Nov 14, 2021 331   @ Bucknell W 73-68 73%     1 - 2 -3.7 -5.6 +2.0
  Nov 16, 2021 307   Lafayette W 85-57 79%     2 - 2 +17.1 +8.0 +9.9
  Nov 18, 2021 73   Utah St. L 79-87 2OT 18%     2 - 3 -0.5 -1.0 +1.5
  Nov 19, 2021 53   Davidson L 60-72 14%     2 - 4 -2.8 -3.6 -1.1
  Nov 21, 2021 184   Old Dominion W 71-63 45%     3 - 4 +7.1 +6.9 +1.3
  Nov 23, 2021 114   @ Towson L 61-76 20%     3 - 5 -8.4 -7.0 -2.3
  Nov 28, 2021 31   @ Arkansas L 60-76 7%     3 - 6 -1.6 -9.1 +8.4
  Dec 01, 2021 6   Villanova L 56-71 6%     3 - 7 +0.4 -2.0 +0.4
  Dec 04, 2021 122   @ Temple L 72-81 23%     3 - 8 -3.6 +9.3 -13.8
  Dec 08, 2021 157   @ Saint Joseph's L 71-78 31%     3 - 9 -4.1 +4.9 -9.4
  Dec 11, 2021 226   @ La Salle L 74-76 44%     3 - 10 -2.6 +5.8 -8.5
  Jan 02, 2022 181   Brown W 77-73 54%     4 - 10 1 - 0 +0.7 +2.1 -1.5
  Jan 07, 2022 229   Cornell W 79-65 64%     5 - 10 2 - 0 +8.1 -1.6 +9.1
  Jan 08, 2022 337   Columbia L 69-73 87%     5 - 11 2 - 1 -18.2 -15.4 -2.6
  Jan 15, 2022 243   Dartmouth W 78-68 68%     6 - 11 3 - 1 +3.0 +8.0 -4.5
  Jan 17, 2022 144   @ Princeton L 64-74 29%     6 - 12 3 - 2 -6.4 -8.0 +1.2
  Jan 22, 2022 134   Yale L 72-74 45%    
  Jan 28, 2022 179   @ Harvard L 70-74 34%    
  Feb 04, 2022 337   @ Columbia W 77-70 73%    
  Feb 05, 2022 229   @ Cornell L 78-79 44%    
  Feb 12, 2022 179   Harvard W 73-72 55%    
  Feb 18, 2022 134   @ Yale L 70-77 25%    
  Feb 19, 2022 181   @ Brown L 68-72 33%    
  Feb 26, 2022 243   @ Dartmouth L 66-67 47%    
  Mar 05, 2022 144   Princeton L 74-75 49%    
Projected Record 10 - 17 7 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.4 2.9 1.3 0.2 7.0 1st
2nd 0.4 5.4 7.1 2.4 0.1 15.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 6.3 11.1 2.6 0.1 20.2 3rd
4th 0.1 4.4 12.5 3.3 0.0 20.3 4th
5th 0.1 2.7 10.7 4.1 0.1 17.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 6.7 4.3 0.1 12.2 6th
7th 0.4 3.0 2.7 0.3 6.4 7th
8th 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.8 8th
Total 0.8 4.6 12.2 19.9 23.4 20.0 12.2 5.3 1.4 0.2 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2
11-3 89.7% 1.3    0.9 0.3 0.0
10-4 53.7% 2.9    1.3 1.3 0.3 0.0
9-5 19.9% 2.4    0.3 0.9 1.0 0.3
8-6 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 7.0% 7.0 2.7 2.5 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2 0.2% 100.0% 100.0% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.0
11-3 1.4% 87.0% 87.0% 15.7 0.4 0.8 0.2
10-4 5.3% 45.4% 45.4% 16.0 0.0 2.4 2.9
9-5 12.2% 11.0% 11.0% 16.0 1.3 10.9
8-6 20.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 19.9
7-7 23.4% 23.4
6-8 19.9% 19.9
5-9 12.2% 12.2
4-10 4.6% 4.6
3-11 0.8% 0.8
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.6 4.6 94.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 14.9 15.2 80.8 4.0
Lose Out 0.8%