Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23

Last Updated: Jan 20, 2022
Compare with others at bracketmatrix.com

View: Probabilistic Seeding


Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
1  Gonzaga Auto 100.0% 75.4% 24.6% 100.0%
1  Auburn At-Large 100.0% 24.7% 75.3% 100.0%
1  Kansas At-Large 99.9% 27.9% 72.0% 99.9%
1  Baylor Auto 100.0% 32.4% 67.6% 100.0%
2  Purdue Auto 100.0% 35.2% 64.8% 100.0%
2  Arizona Auto 100.0% 49.0% 51.0% 99.9%
2  Kentucky Auto 99.8% 32.2% 67.6% 99.7%
2  Villanova Auto 100.0% 40.7% 59.3% 99.9%
3  LSU At-Large 99.9% 16.2% 83.7% 99.9%
3  Houston Auto 99.4% 60.4% 39.1% 98.6%
3  Illinois At-Large 99.0% 21.0% 78.0% 98.7%
3  Duke Auto 99.7% 42.6% 57.2% 99.5%
4  Wisconsin At-Large 99.8% 8.1% 91.6% 99.8%
4  UCLA At-Large 98.9% 26.7% 72.2% 98.5%
4  Texas Tech At-Large 98.4% 14.3% 84.1% 98.2%
4  Alabama At-Large 98.7% 8.2% 90.5% 98.6%
5  Michigan St. At-Large 96.3% 7.1% 89.3% 96.1%
5  Xavier At-Large 98.1% 15.5% 82.5% 97.7%
5  Tennessee At-Large 94.7% 8.9% 85.8% 94.2%
5  Ohio St. At-Large 93.9% 8.3% 85.7% 93.4%
6  Texas At-Large 81.4% 9.8% 71.5% 79.3%
6  Connecticut At-Large 92.0% 14.9% 77.1% 90.6%
6  Iowa St. At-Large 86.7% 3.5% 83.3% 86.3%
6  Providence At-Large 94.4% 5.4% 89.0% 94.0%
7  Iowa At-Large 77.3% 6.2% 71.0% 75.7%
7  Seton Hall At-Large 81.5% 10.7% 70.8% 79.3%
7  Oklahoma At-Large 61.9% 4.1% 57.8% 60.3%
7  West Virginia At-Large 61.2% 2.7% 58.5% 60.1%
8  Marquette At-Large 85.3% 5.9% 79.4% 84.4%
8  Indiana At-Large 72.4% 5.7% 66.7% 70.7%
8  BYU At-Large 90.0% 10.4% 79.6% 88.8%
8  USC At-Large 81.5% 10.2% 71.3% 79.4%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
9  Creighton At-Large 62.0% 5.0% 57.0% 60.0%
9  Arkansas At-Large 66.9% 3.5% 63.3% 65.7%
9  Loyola Chicago Auto 81.8% 51.9% 29.9% 62.1%
9  North Carolina At-Large 59.8% 11.1% 48.7% 54.8%
10  Miami (FL) At-Large 59.0% 5.3% 53.7% 56.7%
10  San Diego St. Auto 66.2% 27.0% 39.1% 53.6%
10  Colorado St. At-Large 78.9% 19.5% 59.4% 73.8%
10  Wake Forest At-Large 57.9% 6.8% 51.1% 54.8%
11  St. Mary's At-Large 60.5% 5.6% 54.8% 58.1%
11  Davidson Auto 59.0% 23.6% 35.4% 46.3%
11  San Francisco At-Large 60.0% 6.6% 53.4% 57.1%
11  Florida St. At-Large 57.2% 8.8% 48.4% 53.1%
11  Oregon At-Large 56.8% 6.3% 50.5% 53.9%
12  Florida At-Large 53.3% 3.2% 50.1% 51.8%
12  Michigan At-Large 46.9% 4.8% 42.1% 44.2%
12  Murray St. Auto 60.1% 51.3% 8.7% 18.0%
12  UAB Auto 40.7% 35.8% 4.8% 7.5%
12  New Mexico St. Auto 37.5% 33.0% 4.6% 6.8%
13  Iona Auto 53.6% 49.5% 4.1% 8.2%
13  Ohio Auto 35.6% 31.3% 4.3% 6.2%
13  Chattanooga Auto 31.8% 31.3% 0.4% 0.6%
13  Oakland Auto 44.7% 44.3% 0.4% 0.7%
14  Vermont Auto 68.3% 68.2% 0.1% 0.2%
14  South Dakota St. Auto 48.5% 48.4% 0.1% 0.1%
14  Towson Auto 31.1% 31.1% 0.0% 0.0%
14  UC Irvine Auto 33.1% 33.0% 0.1% 0.1%
15  Wagner Auto 55.4% 55.4%
15  Liberty Auto 43.8% 43.8%
15  Texas St. Auto 15.6% 15.6%
15  Yale Auto 46.3% 46.3%
16  Weber St. Auto 23.2% 23.2%
16  Colgate Auto 39.9% 39.9%
16  Longwood Auto 24.9% 24.9%
16  Norfolk St. Auto 40.8% 40.8%
16  Nicholls St. Auto 39.6% 39.6%
16  Texas Southern Auto 34.6% 34.6%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Marquette 85.3% 5.9% 79.4% 84.4%
USC 81.5% 10.2% 71.3% 79.4%
Texas 81.4% 9.8% 71.5% 79.3%
Seton Hall 81.5% 10.7% 70.8% 79.3%
Iowa 77.3% 6.2% 71.0% 75.7%
Colorado St. 78.9% 19.5% 59.4% 73.8%
Indiana 72.4% 5.7% 66.7% 70.7%
Arkansas 66.9% 3.5% 63.3% 65.7%
Oklahoma 61.9% 4.1% 57.8% 60.3%
West Virginia 61.2% 2.7% 58.5% 60.1%
Creighton 62.0% 5.0% 57.0% 60.0%
St. Mary's 60.5% 5.6% 54.8% 58.1%
San Francisco 60.0% 6.6% 53.4% 57.1%
Miami (FL) 59.0% 5.3% 53.7% 56.7%
Wake Forest 57.9% 6.8% 51.1% 54.8%
North Carolina 59.8% 11.1% 48.7% 54.8%
Oregon 56.8% 6.3% 50.5% 53.9%
Florida St. 57.2% 8.8% 48.4% 53.1%
Florida 53.3% 3.2% 50.1% 51.8%
Michigan 46.9% 4.8% 42.1% 44.2%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Virginia Tech 46.0% 10.1% 35.9% 39.9%
Oklahoma St. 41.3% 2.7% 38.6% 39.7%
TCU 38.7% 1.3% 37.3% 37.8%
Mississippi St. 37.5% 1.5% 35.9% 36.5%
Wyoming 43.3% 12.4% 30.9% 35.3%
Texas A&M 29.3% 1.1% 28.2% 28.5%
Memphis 36.2% 14.5% 21.7% 25.4%
Rutgers 24.9% 1.0% 23.9% 24.2%
Stanford 22.9% 1.7% 21.1% 21.5%
Boise St. 34.3% 17.1% 17.2% 20.8%
Notre Dame 22.8% 4.0% 18.8% 19.6%
Colorado 18.6% 1.9% 16.8% 17.1%
Kansas St. 17.9% 1.3% 16.6% 16.8%
Virginia 19.4% 3.4% 16.0% 16.6%
Penn St. 16.7% 1.0% 15.7% 15.9%
Minnesota 13.6% 0.2% 13.3% 13.4%
St. Bonaventure 23.1% 11.8% 11.2% 12.8%
SMU 17.4% 8.0% 9.3% 10.2%
Dayton 23.3% 15.2% 8.1% 9.6%
Virginia Commonwealth 21.1% 13.2% 7.9% 9.1%
Washington St. 11.7% 3.1% 8.6% 8.9%
Louisville 10.0% 1.6% 8.4% 8.6%
Cincinnati 13.7% 5.8% 7.9% 8.4%
Syracuse 11.1% 3.0% 8.1% 8.3%
Central Florida 12.8% 5.2% 7.5% 8.0%
Northwestern 8.4% 0.9% 7.6% 7.6%
Saint Louis 20.5% 14.2% 6.3% 7.3%
Vanderbilt 6.9% 0.3% 6.6% 6.6%
Maryland 6.9% 0.5% 6.4% 6.4%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Utah St. 14.0% 8.4% 5.5% 6.0%
Clemson 7.9% 2.3% 5.6% 5.8%
Fresno St. 13.9% 9.2% 4.7% 5.2%
Louisiana Tech 26.5% 22.4% 4.0% 5.2%
Belmont 43.6% 40.6% 3.0% 5.0%
North Texas 24.3% 21.3% 3.0% 3.8%
Wichita St. 6.0% 2.9% 3.1% 3.2%
St. John's 4.0% 0.9% 3.0% 3.1%
DePaul 3.2% 0.6% 2.5% 2.5%
Santa Clara 3.6% 1.5% 2.1% 2.1%
Rhode Island 12.4% 11.0% 1.4% 1.6%
South Carolina 1.6% 0.1% 1.5% 1.5%
Grand Canyon 33.3% 32.5% 0.7% 1.1%
Richmond 7.4% 6.6% 0.9% 0.9%
North Carolina St. 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8%
Toledo 30.7% 30.2% 0.5% 0.7%
Butler 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5%
Missouri St. 17.8% 17.5% 0.4% 0.5%
UNLV 4.1% 3.7% 0.3% 0.4%
Mississippi 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3%
Nevada 2.6% 2.4% 0.2% 0.2%
Arizona St. 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2%
Temple 1.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.2%
Northern Iowa 10.4% 10.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Missouri 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Washington 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
California 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Utah 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Tulane 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Furman 27.2% 27.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 19.4% 19.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 17.4% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 8.5% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Buffalo 17.6% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Valley 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgetown 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%