Southland
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
218 Nicholls St. 36.6%   16   6 - 8 2 - 2 16 - 11 12 - 5 -2.6      -0.9 199 -1.7 225 75.9 39 -3.2 223 -7.9 4
251 TX A&M Corpus Christi 23.8%   10 - 4 3 - 1 19 - 8 12 - 5 -4.7      -3.7 274 -1.0 203 72.0 89 +1.1 154 -4.0 2
281 New Orleans 14.8%   5 - 8 3 - 1 13 - 13 11 - 6 -6.9      -3.9 282 -3.0 271 77.9 16 -7.5 285 -5.0 3
304 SE Louisiana 10.9%   5 - 9 4 - 0 12 - 15 11 - 6 -8.3      -2.8 257 -5.4 323 70.8 120 -5.6 262 +6.7 1
323 McNeese St. 4.2%   3 - 11 2 - 2 9 - 18 8 - 9 -10.3      -4.8 306 -5.5 324 73.5 71 -10.0 311 -9.4 5
345 Northwestern St. 1.3%   1 - 14 1 - 3 6 - 22 6 - 11 -13.1      -4.5 299 -8.6 352 75.9 40 -16.9 348 -14.6 6
353 Incarnate Word 0.3%   2 - 13 1 - 3 6 - 22 5 - 12 -15.6      -7.2 338 -8.4 349 66.6 245 -16.4 347 -16.4 7
354 Houston Baptist 0.2%   0 - 10 0 - 4 3 - 20 3 - 14 -17.1      -5.9 325 -11.2 356 68.0 197 -21.8 354 -26.0 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
Nicholls St. 2.0 37.2 27.7 17.5 9.2 2.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 2.2 29.6 25.5 19.6 13.4 4.9 1.0 0.1 0.0
New Orleans 2.7 19.9 23.9 23.1 19.7 7.9 1.9 0.4 0.0
SE Louisiana 2.7 20.4 22.7 22.3 20.4 8.3 1.8 0.2 0.0
McNeese St. 4.7 2.3 5.1 10.0 19.3 37.5 17.9 6.8 1.1
Northwestern St. 5.9 0.2 0.8 2.6 7.5 22.1 37.0 22.1 7.7
Incarnate Word 6.5 0.0 0.3 0.9 3.2 12.4 27.8 38.0 17.4
Houston Baptist 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.4 11.8 26.0 57.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0
Nicholls St. 11 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.2 5.4 10.0 17.2 22.2 21.9 15.2
TX A&M Corpus Christi 11 - 3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.6 7.4 13.0 18.5 20.8 17.5 11.2
New Orleans 11 - 3 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.7 6.3 11.6 16.6 19.7 18.3 13.5 7.1
SE Louisiana 10 - 4 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.0 6.7 11.7 16.6 19.8 17.1 12.9 7.2
McNeese St. 8 - 6 0.1 0.9 3.1 7.2 12.8 17.3 18.9 17.2 11.8 6.7 2.8 0.9 0.2
Northwestern St. 6 - 8 0.4 2.1 6.5 12.6 17.9 19.8 17.5 12.3 6.8 2.8 1.1 0.2 0.0
Incarnate Word 5 - 9 1.7 6.6 13.7 20.0 20.7 17.2 10.9 5.8 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Houston Baptist 3 - 11 4.4 12.8 20.3 21.7 17.5 12.3 6.5 2.8 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Nicholls St. 37.2% 21.3 12.6 2.9 0.3 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 29.6% 16.5 10.1 2.6 0.3 0.0
New Orleans 19.9% 9.8 7.6 2.2 0.3 0.0
SE Louisiana 20.4% 10.5 7.4 2.2 0.3 0.0
McNeese St. 2.3% 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
Northwestern St. 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Incarnate Word 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston Baptist 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Nicholls St. 39.6% 39.6% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.2 1.8 7.8 29.8 60.4 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 26.4% 26.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 3.5 22.5 73.6 0.0%
New Orleans 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 15.7 84.0 0.0%
SE Louisiana 12.1% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 11.9 87.9 0.0%
McNeese St. 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 4.2 95.8 0.0%
Northwestern St. 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 1.3 98.7 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Houston Baptist 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Nicholls St. 39.6% 18.4% 30.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 26.4% 15.8% 17.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 16.0% 14.4% 7.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SE Louisiana 12.1% 10.9% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
McNeese St. 4.2% 4.1% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 1.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Baptist 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 64.3% 0.6 35.7 64.3
2nd Round 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0