Northwestern St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.1#345
Expected Predictive Rating-16.9#348
Pace75.9#40
Improvement+0.4#166

Offense
Total Offense-4.5#299
First Shot-3.8#286
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#240
Layup/Dunks-1.6#233
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#20
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#304
Freethrows-2.4#327
Improvement+0.9#117

Defense
Total Defense-8.6#352
First Shot-5.2#324
After Offensive Rebounds-3.4#354
Layups/Dunks-4.1#315
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#243
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#202
Freethrows+0.0#193
Improvement-0.6#209
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.3% 2.8% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 40.8% 71.0% 37.4%
Conference Champion 0.2% 1.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 14.2% 5.5% 15.2%
First Four1.3% 2.8% 1.1%
First Round0.4% 0.8% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nicholls St. (Away) - 10.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 6
Quad 20 - 10 - 7
Quad 30 - 40 - 11
Quad 47 - 127 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 30   @ Oklahoma L 59-77 1%     0 - 1 -3.5 -6.8 +3.5
  Nov 10, 2021 121   @ Tulsa L 75-82 5%     0 - 2 -1.6 +3.1 -4.5
  Nov 15, 2021 63   @ SMU L 48-95 2%     0 - 3 -36.3 -21.5 -14.9
  Nov 19, 2021 82   Louisiana Tech L 64-83 6%     0 - 4 -14.4 -7.5 -6.7
  Nov 22, 2021 258   Louisiana Monroe L 66-96 22%     0 - 5 -35.0 -20.5 -10.5
  Nov 28, 2021 162   Stephen F. Austin L 68-72 16%     0 - 6 -6.4 -4.4 -2.0
  Nov 30, 2021 9   @ Houston L 58-99 1%     0 - 7 -21.0 -6.6 -13.8
  Dec 04, 2021 258   @ Louisiana Monroe L 71-84 16%     0 - 8 -15.5 -8.5 -6.4
  Dec 14, 2021 13   @ LSU L 49-89 1%     0 - 9 -20.9 -12.3 -6.3
  Dec 21, 2021 60   @ Texas A&M L 61-80 2%     0 - 10 -8.0 -8.8 +2.0
  Dec 28, 2021 5   @ Baylor L 68-104 0.5%    0 - 11 -14.6 -4.5 -5.4
  Jan 06, 2022 251   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 67-89 21%     0 - 12 0 - 1 -26.7 -7.8 -18.7
  Jan 07, 2022 353   Incarnate Word W 83-80 60%     1 - 12 1 - 1 -12.6 +2.0 -14.6
  Jan 08, 2022 281   New Orleans L 79-80 28%     1 - 13 1 - 2 -7.9 +0.2 -8.1
  Jan 15, 2022 304   @ SE Louisiana L 74-79 24%     1 - 14 1 - 3 -10.8 -11.7 +1.6
  Jan 20, 2022 218   @ Nicholls St. L 73-86 10%    
  Jan 22, 2022 281   @ New Orleans L 75-84 19%    
  Jan 27, 2022 353   Incarnate Word W 77-72 70%    
  Jan 29, 2022 251   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 73-79 31%    
  Feb 03, 2022 354   @ Houston Baptist W 78-77 54%    
  Feb 05, 2022 323   @ McNeese St. L 76-81 29%    
  Feb 10, 2022 354   Houston Baptist W 81-74 74%    
  Feb 12, 2022 323   McNeese St. L 78-79 51%    
  Feb 17, 2022 353   @ Incarnate Word L 74-75 49%    
  Feb 19, 2022 251   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 70-81 15%    
  Feb 24, 2022 218   Nicholls St. L 76-84 24%    
  Feb 26, 2022 281   New Orleans L 78-82 39%    
  Mar 05, 2022 304   SE Louisiana L 77-79 44%    
Projected Record 6 - 22 6 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.5 1.2 0.1 7.5 4th
5th 0.5 3.4 8.0 7.7 2.4 0.1 22.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.5 9.7 13.5 8.8 2.2 0.1 37.0 6th
7th 0.3 3.3 8.1 7.3 2.8 0.3 0.0 22.1 7th
8th 0.4 1.8 3.1 2.0 0.4 0.0 7.7 8th
Total 0.4 2.1 6.5 12.6 17.9 19.8 17.5 12.3 6.8 2.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1 94.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-2 56.6% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
11-3 9.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-4 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-5 0.0%
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-2 0.2% 17.2% 17.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
11-3 1.1% 12.0% 12.0% 16.0 0.1 0.9
10-4 2.8% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.1 2.6
9-5 6.8% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.3 6.5
8-6 12.3% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.3 12.0
7-7 17.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 17.4
6-8 19.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 19.6
5-9 17.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 17.9
4-10 12.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.5
3-11 6.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.5
2-12 2.1% 2.1
1-13 0.4% 0.4
0-14
Total 100% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 16.0 1.3 98.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%