Nicholls St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.6#218
Expected Predictive Rating-3.2#223
Pace75.9#39
Improvement-1.6#248

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#199
First Shot-0.9#213
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#187
Layup/Dunks+3.3#65
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#166
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#206
Freethrows-3.5#349
Improvement+1.1#108

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#225
First Shot-1.2#216
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#217
Layups/Dunks+1.8#117
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#199
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#157
Freethrows-3.7#346
Improvement-2.7#319
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.6% 40.5% 31.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 17.0 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 94.4% 95.7% 82.8%
.500 or above in Conference 94.7% 94.2% 98.7%
Conference Champion 42.3% 44.6% 21.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four18.4% 18.1% 21.4%
First Round30.7% 31.7% 21.8%
Second Round0.7% 0.7% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northwestern St. (Home) - 89.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 21 - 01 - 4
Quad 31 - 22 - 7
Quad 416 - 517 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 101   @ Northern Iowa W 62-58 17%     1 - 0 +11.5 -5.5 +17.2
  Nov 15, 2021 5   @ Baylor L 60-89 2%     1 - 1 -7.6 -9.5 +4.7
  Nov 18, 2021 57   @ TCU L 50-63 11%     1 - 2 -1.9 -12.1 +9.5
  Nov 22, 2021 300   Cal Poly W 75-72 OT 70%     2 - 2 -5.1 -7.4 +2.0
  Nov 24, 2021 128   Utah Valley L 63-74 31%     2 - 3 -8.5 -6.1 -2.7
  Dec 09, 2021 357   @ Mississippi Valley W 95-80 93%     3 - 3 -4.0 -1.0 -5.1
  Dec 15, 2021 25   @ Wisconsin L 68-71 6%     3 - 4 +12.3 +5.7 +6.4
  Dec 18, 2021 357   Mississippi Valley W 104-73 97%     4 - 4 +7.0 +12.1 -7.0
  Dec 21, 2021 124   @ Oregon St. L 61-83 22%     4 - 5 -16.6 -13.6 -2.0
  Dec 29, 2021 4   @ Purdue L 90-104 2%     4 - 6 +7.7 +20.3 -12.0
  Jan 06, 2022 353   Incarnate Word W 87-56 88%     5 - 6 1 - 0 +15.4 +5.6 +9.7
  Jan 07, 2022 251   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 84-75 58%     6 - 6 2 - 0 +4.3 +5.1 -1.4
  Jan 08, 2022 304   SE Louisiana L 72-77 71%     6 - 7 2 - 1 -13.3 -5.8 -7.5
  Jan 15, 2022 281   @ New Orleans L 66-78 57%     6 - 8 2 - 2 -16.4 -15.7 +0.6
  Jan 20, 2022 345   Northwestern St. W 86-73 90%    
  Jan 22, 2022 304   SE Louisiana W 80-72 79%    
  Jan 27, 2022 323   @ McNeese St. W 79-74 67%    
  Jan 29, 2022 354   @ Houston Baptist W 82-70 86%    
  Feb 03, 2022 353   @ Incarnate Word W 79-68 83%    
  Feb 10, 2022 353   Incarnate Word W 81-65 93%    
  Feb 12, 2022 251   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 77-72 69%    
  Feb 17, 2022 323   McNeese St. W 82-72 84%    
  Feb 19, 2022 354   Houston Baptist W 85-68 95%    
  Feb 24, 2022 345   @ Northwestern St. W 84-76 76%    
  Feb 26, 2022 304   @ SE Louisiana W 78-75 60%    
  Mar 02, 2022 251   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 74-75 47%    
  Mar 05, 2022 281   New Orleans W 82-75 74%    
Projected Record 16 - 11 12 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 6.6 15.2 14.5 37.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 6.9 12.3 6.6 0.7 27.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 4.9 8.1 3.1 0.2 17.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.1 3.8 1.3 0.1 9.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.2 2.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.2 5.4 10.0 17.2 22.2 21.9 15.2 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 95.1% 14.5    11.7 2.7 0.1
13-1 69.1% 15.2    7.8 6.4 1.0 0.0
12-2 29.8% 6.6    1.7 3.2 1.5 0.2
11-3 5.2% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
10-4 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-5 0.0%
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 37.2% 37.2 21.3 12.6 2.9 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 15.2% 55.6% 55.6% 15.4 0.0 0.5 3.9 4.1 6.7
13-1 21.9% 47.4% 47.4% 15.8 0.1 1.8 8.5 11.5
12-2 22.2% 39.4% 39.4% 15.9 0.0 0.5 8.2 13.4
11-3 17.2% 31.0% 31.0% 16.0 0.1 5.2 11.9
10-4 10.0% 24.3% 24.3% 16.0 0.0 2.4 7.6
9-5 5.4% 17.1% 17.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9 4.5
8-6 2.2% 12.4% 12.4% 16.0 0.3 1.9
7-7 0.6% 11.6% 11.6% 16.0 0.1 0.5
6-8 0.2% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
5-9 0.0% 0.0
4-10 0.0% 0.0
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 36.6% 36.6% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.6 6.4 29.7 63.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.9% 100.0% 14.5 0.2 6.3 42.3 46.9 4.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1%