Incarnate Word
Southland
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-15.6#353
Expected Predictive Rating-16.4#347
Pace66.6#245
Improvement-1.2#228

Offense
Total Offense-7.2#338
First Shot-3.8#287
After Offensive Rebound-3.4#347
Layup/Dunks-7.2#355
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#71
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#123
Freethrows+0.0#182
Improvement-2.2#301

Defense
Total Defense-8.4#349
First Shot-7.1#346
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#293
Layups/Dunks-5.4#339
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#111
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#338
Freethrows+2.1#53
Improvement+1.0#123
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 20.2% 26.5% 7.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 28.5% 15.9% 53.4%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Houston Baptist (Home) - 66.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 4
Quad 20 - 00 - 4
Quad 30 - 40 - 9
Quad 46 - 146 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 150   Texas St. L 57-75 10%     0 - 1 -19.7 -9.7 -12.4
  Nov 12, 2021 5   @ Baylor L 60-87 0.3%    0 - 2 -5.6 -4.2 -1.1
  Nov 20, 2021 14   Texas Tech L 62-84 1%     0 - 3 -6.6 +3.5 -11.3
  Nov 26, 2021 316   Southeast Missouri St. L 76-79 36%     0 - 4 -14.8 -6.4 -8.4
  Nov 27, 2021 166   Montana St. L 64-83 12%     0 - 5 -21.6 -6.4 -16.0
  Nov 28, 2021 245   Portland L 68-77 21%     0 - 6 -16.1 -10.2 -5.7
  Dec 04, 2021 141   @ Abilene Christian L 65-98 5%     0 - 7 -29.1 -6.9 -20.3
  Dec 11, 2021 322   Grambling St. W 72-62 39%     1 - 7 -2.8 -10.0 +6.7
  Dec 16, 2021 167   @ Rice L 55-85 6%     1 - 8 -27.6 -22.3 -3.7
  Dec 20, 2021 4   @ Purdue L 59-79 0.3%    1 - 9 +1.7 -1.2 +0.9
  Dec 28, 2021 17   @ Texas L 33-78 1%     1 - 10 -28.2 -27.6 -5.9
  Jan 06, 2022 218   Nicholls St. L 56-87 12%     1 - 11 0 - 1 -33.6 -18.7 -14.8
  Jan 07, 2022 345   Northwestern St. L 80-83 40%     1 - 12 0 - 2 -16.1 -1.3 -14.9
  Jan 08, 2022 354   Houston Baptist W 60-50 56%     2 - 12 1 - 2 -7.1 -14.9 +9.3
  Jan 15, 2022 251   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 64-80 11%     2 - 13 1 - 3 -18.2 -8.8 -9.4
  Jan 20, 2022 354   Houston Baptist W 74-70 66%    
  Jan 22, 2022 323   McNeese St. L 70-73 40%    
  Jan 27, 2022 345   @ Northwestern St. L 72-77 30%    
  Jan 29, 2022 304   @ SE Louisiana L 67-77 17%    
  Feb 03, 2022 218   Nicholls St. L 68-79 17%    
  Feb 05, 2022 281   New Orleans L 70-76 30%    
  Feb 10, 2022 218   @ Nicholls St. L 65-81 7%    
  Feb 12, 2022 281   @ New Orleans L 68-79 14%    
  Feb 17, 2022 345   Northwestern St. W 75-74 51%    
  Feb 19, 2022 304   SE Louisiana L 69-74 35%    
  Feb 24, 2022 354   @ Houston Baptist L 71-72 45%    
  Feb 26, 2022 323   @ McNeese St. L 68-76 22%    
  Mar 05, 2022 251   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 66-74 24%    
Projected Record 6 - 22 5 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.2 4th
5th 0.5 2.8 4.8 3.6 0.8 0.0 12.4 5th
6th 0.1 2.5 8.5 10.5 5.3 0.8 0.0 27.8 6th
7th 1.1 7.4 14.1 11.0 3.8 0.5 0.0 38.0 7th
8th 1.7 5.5 6.2 3.4 0.7 0.0 17.4 8th
Total 1.7 6.6 13.7 20.0 20.7 17.2 10.9 5.8 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-2 31.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-3 8.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-4 0.0%
9-5 0.0%
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1 0.0% 0.0
12-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
11-3 0.3% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3
10-4 0.9% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.0 0.9
9-5 2.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.3
8-6 5.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 5.8
7-7 10.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 10.8
6-8 17.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 17.1
5-9 20.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 20.7
4-10 20.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.9
3-11 13.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.7
2-12 6.6% 6.6
1-13 1.7% 1.7
0-14
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.3%