SE Louisiana
Southland
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.3#304
Expected Predictive Rating-5.6#262
Pace70.8#120
Improvement+1.5#109

Offense
Total Offense-2.8#257
First Shot-2.0#247
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#247
Layup/Dunks-3.1#293
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#221
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#143
Freethrows+1.1#92
Improvement+2.5#45

Defense
Total Defense-5.4#323
First Shot-4.5#311
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#263
Layups/Dunks-3.2#292
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#171
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#285
Freethrows+0.9#109
Improvement-1.1#241
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.9% 15.6% 10.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 17.7 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 28.2% 45.3% 19.3%
.500 or above in Conference 95.0% 90.9% 97.2%
Conference Champion 24.3% 40.3% 16.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four10.9% 13.4% 9.6%
First Round5.5% 7.6% 4.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Orleans (Away) - 34.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 32 - 8
Quad 411 - 813 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 135   @ Tulane L 67-70 12%     0 - 1 +1.5 -1.3 +2.7
  Nov 18, 2021 63   @ SMU L 61-78 5%     0 - 2 -6.3 -11.6 +6.2
  Nov 26, 2021 261   Purdue Fort Wayne L 66-74 39%     0 - 3 -13.3 -12.6 -0.4
  Nov 27, 2021 221   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 71-90 22%     0 - 4 -19.3 -10.0 -7.5
  Nov 28, 2021 315   Western Michigan L 77-81 OT 54%     0 - 5 -13.3 -8.3 -4.7
  Dec 05, 2021 189   @ Troy W 72-68 19%     1 - 5 +5.2 +5.0 +0.3
  Dec 11, 2021 240   @ Southern L 66-72 27%     1 - 6 -7.7 -8.7 +1.2
  Dec 14, 2021 86   @ Louisville L 60-86 6%     1 - 7 -16.9 -9.5 -6.0
  Dec 19, 2021 36   @ Iowa St. L 54-77 3%     1 - 8 -9.2 -3.7 -7.7
  Dec 21, 2021 21   @ Iowa L 62-93 2%     1 - 9 -15.3 -13.8 +1.8
  Jan 06, 2022 354   Houston Baptist W 90-81 80%     2 - 9 1 - 0 -8.1 +10.1 -17.8
  Jan 07, 2022 323   McNeese St. W 83-78 58%     3 - 9 2 - 0 -5.3 +3.9 -9.2
  Jan 08, 2022 218   Nicholls St. W 77-72 29%     4 - 9 3 - 0 +2.4 +2.9 -0.5
  Jan 15, 2022 345   Northwestern St. W 79-74 76%     5 - 9 4 - 0 -10.7 -13.0 +1.8
  Jan 20, 2022 281   @ New Orleans L 74-78 34%    
  Jan 22, 2022 218   @ Nicholls St. L 72-80 21%    
  Jan 27, 2022 251   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 72-73 48%    
  Jan 29, 2022 353   Incarnate Word W 77-67 83%    
  Feb 03, 2022 323   @ McNeese St. L 75-76 46%    
  Feb 05, 2022 354   @ Houston Baptist W 77-71 71%    
  Feb 10, 2022 323   McNeese St. W 78-73 68%    
  Feb 12, 2022 354   Houston Baptist W 80-69 86%    
  Feb 17, 2022 251   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 70-76 28%    
  Feb 19, 2022 353   @ Incarnate Word W 74-69 65%    
  Feb 24, 2022 281   New Orleans W 77-76 56%    
  Feb 26, 2022 218   Nicholls St. L 75-78 40%    
  Mar 05, 2022 345   @ Northwestern St. W 79-77 56%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 11 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 4.2 8.7 6.9 20.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 7.2 9.8 4.1 0.4 22.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 7.4 9.7 3.1 0.2 22.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.7 7.4 7.6 2.2 0.1 20.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.5 2.4 0.4 8.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.0 6.7 11.7 16.6 19.8 17.1 12.9 7.2 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 94.7% 6.9    5.4 1.4 0.1
13-1 66.8% 8.7    4.2 3.8 0.7 0.0
12-2 24.4% 4.2    0.9 2.0 1.1 0.1
11-3 3.6% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-4 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-5 0.0%
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 20.4% 20.4 10.5 7.4 2.2 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 7.2% 24.6% 24.6% 16.0 0.0 1.8 5.5
13-1 12.9% 19.9% 19.9% 16.0 0.0 2.6 10.4
12-2 17.1% 15.9% 15.9% 16.0 2.7 14.4
11-3 19.8% 10.3% 10.3% 16.0 2.1 17.8
10-4 16.6% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 1.1 15.5
9-5 11.7% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.5 11.1
8-6 6.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 6.6
7-7 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.9
6-8 0.9% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.9
5-9 0.2% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-10 0.0% 0.0
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 10.9% 10.9% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.9 89.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 15.0 18.8 62.5 18.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%