TX A&M Corpus Christi
Southland
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.7#251
Expected Predictive Rating+1.1#154
Pace72.0#89
Improvement+1.4#113

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#274
First Shot-2.9#269
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#242
Layup/Dunks+0.2#159
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#144
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.1#339
Freethrows+2.6#23
Improvement+1.0#115

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#203
First Shot+0.2#168
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#290
Layups/Dunks+4.4#30
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#14
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#294
Freethrows-4.2#350
Improvement+0.4#163
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.8% 27.9% 20.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 17.6 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 99.6% 99.8% 98.5%
.500 or above in Conference 93.6% 92.6% 97.3%
Conference Champion 35.4% 39.6% 19.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four15.8% 16.0% 15.2%
First Round17.9% 19.3% 12.5%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: McNeese St. (Home) - 78.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 10 - 4
Quad 420 - 520 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 14, 2021 60   @ Texas A&M L 65-86 8%     0 - 1 -10.0 +3.8 -15.3
  Nov 16, 2021 355   IUPUI W 65-59 88%     1 - 1 -11.5 -17.3 +5.6
  Nov 17, 2021 317   Denver W 69-67 67%     2 - 1 -7.4 -6.3 -1.0
  Nov 21, 2021 318   @ Texas San Antonio W 77-58 59%     3 - 1 +11.9 -1.0 +12.3
  Dec 01, 2021 276   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 83-77 47%     4 - 1 +2.0 -3.6 +4.9
  Dec 08, 2021 276   UT Rio Grande Valley W 75-69 66%     5 - 1 -3.0 -8.7 +5.3
  Dec 11, 2021 338   @ Nebraska Omaha W 87-73 68%     6 - 1 +4.5 -2.9 +5.7
  Dec 14, 2021 91   @ Minnesota L 71-79 11%     6 - 2 +0.8 -2.2 +3.6
  Dec 18, 2021 335   Lamar W 57-53 81%     7 - 2 -10.0 -18.1 +8.6
  Dec 22, 2021 65   @ Notre Dame L 73-83 8%     7 - 3 +0.7 +5.4 -5.0
  Jan 06, 2022 345   Northwestern St. W 89-67 79%     8 - 3 1 - 0 +8.9 +6.4 +2.2
  Jan 07, 2022 218   Nicholls St. L 75-84 42%     8 - 4 1 - 1 -11.6 -4.1 -7.0
  Jan 08, 2022 323   McNeese St. W 67-54 70%     9 - 4 2 - 1 +2.7 -3.9 +8.1
  Jan 15, 2022 353   Incarnate Word W 80-64 89%     10 - 4 3 - 1 -2.1 -2.7 +0.5
  Jan 20, 2022 323   McNeese St. W 77-69 79%    
  Jan 22, 2022 354   Houston Baptist W 80-65 93%    
  Jan 27, 2022 304   @ SE Louisiana W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 29, 2022 345   @ Northwestern St. W 79-73 69%    
  Feb 03, 2022 281   New Orleans W 77-72 69%    
  Feb 10, 2022 281   @ New Orleans L 74-75 47%    
  Feb 12, 2022 218   @ Nicholls St. L 72-77 31%    
  Feb 17, 2022 304   SE Louisiana W 76-70 72%    
  Feb 19, 2022 345   Northwestern St. W 81-70 85%    
  Feb 24, 2022 323   @ McNeese St. W 74-71 59%    
  Feb 26, 2022 354   @ Houston Baptist W 77-67 81%    
  Mar 02, 2022 218   Nicholls St. W 75-74 53%    
  Mar 05, 2022 353   @ Incarnate Word W 74-66 76%    
Projected Record 19 - 8 12 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 5.7 12.2 10.8 29.6 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 7.1 11.7 5.2 0.4 25.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 6.0 8.7 3.4 0.2 19.6 3rd
4th 0.2 1.4 4.5 5.5 1.8 0.1 13.4 4th
5th 0.2 0.8 1.9 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.6 7.4 13.0 18.5 20.8 17.5 11.2 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 96.0% 10.8    8.8 2.0 0.0
13-1 69.6% 12.2    6.3 5.0 0.9 0.0
12-2 27.3% 5.7    1.4 2.8 1.3 0.2
11-3 4.7% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-4 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-5 0.0%
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 29.6% 29.6 16.5 10.1 2.6 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 11.2% 41.9% 41.9% 15.7 0.1 1.3 3.4 6.5
13-1 17.5% 35.0% 35.0% 15.9 0.6 5.5 11.4
12-2 20.8% 29.0% 29.0% 16.0 0.2 5.8 14.8
11-3 18.5% 21.7% 21.7% 16.0 0.0 4.0 14.5
10-4 13.0% 14.1% 14.1% 16.0 1.8 11.2
9-5 7.4% 9.6% 9.6% 16.0 0.7 6.7
8-6 3.6% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.2 3.4
7-7 1.5% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.1 1.4
6-8 0.5% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.5
5-9 0.1% 0.1
4-10 0.0% 0.0
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 23.8% 23.8% 0.0% 15.9 0.1 2.2 21.5 76.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 14.4 10.2 42.6 44.4 2.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%