New Orleans
Southland
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.9#281
Expected Predictive Rating-7.5#285
Pace77.9#16
Improvement-0.7#202

Offense
Total Offense-3.9#282
First Shot-2.1#250
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#306
Layup/Dunks+6.5#17
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#114
3 Pt Jumpshots-10.1#357
Freethrows+0.5#142
Improvement-2.9#329

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#271
First Shot-1.3#220
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#310
Layups/Dunks-2.4#270
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#39
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#252
Freethrows+0.8#128
Improvement+2.2#55
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.8% 18.2% 11.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 17.3 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 57.5% 66.8% 40.0%
.500 or above in Conference 95.7% 95.0% 96.9%
Conference Champion 23.1% 30.1% 9.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four14.4% 16.0% 11.3%
First Round7.9% 9.1% 5.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SE Louisiana (Home) - 65.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 31 - 7
Quad 414 - 714 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 109   @ Mississippi L 61-82 10%     0 - 1 -14.2 -8.7 -4.6
  Nov 16, 2021 59   @ Northwestern L 67-83 6%     0 - 2 -5.0 -0.2 -5.1
  Nov 19, 2021 167   Rice L 78-83 34%     0 - 3 -7.6 -0.1 -7.4
  Nov 24, 2021 329   Central Arkansas W 90-63 74%     1 - 3 +13.4 -2.0 +12.5
  Nov 25, 2021 299   Presbyterian L 66-68 64%     1 - 4 -12.5 -11.6 -0.9
  Nov 26, 2021 197   VMI W 79-71 39%     2 - 4 +4.0 +2.4 +1.8
  Nov 30, 2021 60   @ Texas A&M L 65-85 6%     2 - 5 -9.0 -3.8 -4.3
  Dec 03, 2021 165   @ Louisiana L 67-80 19%     2 - 6 -10.5 -11.1 +2.0
  Dec 11, 2021 73   @ Utah St. L 50-82 7%     2 - 7 -22.0 -19.4 -1.8
  Jan 06, 2022 323   McNeese St. L 82-92 2OT 63%     2 - 8 0 - 1 -20.3 -14.4 -3.7
  Jan 07, 2022 354   Houston Baptist W 81-65 83%     3 - 8 1 - 1 -1.1 -11.4 +8.6
  Jan 08, 2022 345   Northwestern St. W 80-79 72%     4 - 8 2 - 1 -12.1 -4.4 -7.7
  Jan 15, 2022 218   Nicholls St. W 78-66 43%     5 - 8 3 - 1 +6.9 -6.2 +11.8
  Jan 20, 2022 304   SE Louisiana W 78-74 66%    
  Jan 22, 2022 345   Northwestern St. W 84-75 81%    
  Jan 27, 2022 354   @ Houston Baptist W 80-72 75%    
  Jan 29, 2022 323   @ McNeese St. W 77-76 51%    
  Feb 03, 2022 251   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 72-77 31%    
  Feb 05, 2022 353   @ Incarnate Word W 76-70 70%    
  Feb 10, 2022 251   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 75-74 53%    
  Feb 12, 2022 353   Incarnate Word W 79-68 86%    
  Feb 19, 2022 323   McNeese St. W 80-74 72%    
  Feb 24, 2022 304   @ SE Louisiana L 76-77 44%    
  Feb 26, 2022 345   @ Northwestern St. W 82-78 61%    
  Mar 02, 2022 354   Houston Baptist W 83-70 88%    
  Mar 05, 2022 218   @ Nicholls St. L 75-82 26%    
Projected Record 13 - 13 11 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 4.2 8.5 6.6 19.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 6.9 10.4 4.8 0.5 23.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 7.5 9.9 3.6 0.2 23.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.5 7.3 7.4 2.2 0.1 19.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.4 2.4 0.4 7.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.7 6.3 11.6 16.6 19.7 18.3 13.5 7.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 93.4% 6.6    4.8 1.8 0.1
13-1 62.9% 8.5    4.0 3.7 0.7 0.0
12-2 22.9% 4.2    0.9 2.0 1.2 0.2
11-3 3.3% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-4 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-5 0.0%
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 19.9% 19.9 9.8 7.6 2.2 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 7.1% 32.3% 32.3% 16.0 0.1 2.2 4.8
13-1 13.5% 27.1% 27.1% 16.0 0.0 3.6 9.8
12-2 18.3% 19.2% 19.2% 16.0 0.0 3.5 14.8
11-3 19.7% 14.2% 14.2% 16.0 2.8 16.9
10-4 16.6% 9.0% 9.0% 16.0 1.5 15.1
9-5 11.6% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.7 10.9
8-6 6.3% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.3 6.0
7-7 2.7% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 2.7
6-8 0.9% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.9
5-9 0.3% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-10 0.0% 0.0
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 14.8% 14.8% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 14.7 85.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 15.4 4.5 52.3 43.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%