Preseason Rankings
Southeastern
2018-19


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
3 Kentucky 94.4%   1   0 - 0 0 - 0 24 - 7 13 - 5 +18.3      +11.0 5 +7.3 7 70.3 144 0.0 1 0.0 1
9 Tennessee 86.8%   2   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 8 12 - 6 +16.2      +8.1 17 +8.1 3 65.4 271 0.0 1 0.0 1
13 Auburn 81.6%   3   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 9 11 - 7 +14.6      +9.0 12 +5.7 26 77.8 21 0.0 1 0.0 1
16 Florida 73.6%   4   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 7 +13.8      +7.3 23 +6.6 16 66.6 240 0.0 1 0.0 1
21 Mississippi St. 76.2%   5   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 10 11 - 7 +13.3      +7.1 28 +6.3 20 67.7 216 0.0 1 0.0 1
39 Alabama 53.9%   8   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 13 9 - 9 +10.5      +4.0 76 +6.5 17 70.3 145 0.0 1 0.0 1
46 LSU 52.4%   8   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 12 9 - 9 +9.7      +7.6 21 +2.2 107 69.0 181 0.0 1 0.0 1
51 Missouri 42.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 9 - 9 +9.5      +4.4 67 +5.1 33 64.5 296 0.0 1 0.0 1
61 South Carolina 37.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 8 - 10 +8.8      +2.0 109 +6.8 11 70.5 140 0.0 1 0.0 1
64 Texas A&M 33.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 8 - 10 +8.2      +3.5 78 +4.7 43 71.0 125 0.0 1 0.0 1
80 Georgia 19.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 16 7 - 11 +6.1      +1.3 127 +4.9 39 61.7 336 0.0 1 0.0 1
83 Vanderbilt 17.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 16 6 - 12 +6.0      +4.7 63 +1.3 128 64.9 282 0.0 1 0.0 1
94 Arkansas 16.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 16 7 - 11 +5.1      +3.4 84 +1.6 122 72.5 89 0.0 1 0.0 1
118 Mississippi 10.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 18 5 - 13 +3.4      +3.2 90 +0.2 161 72.9 81 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Kentucky 3.1 35.9 18.8 12.8 10.1 6.6 4.8 3.9 2.6 1.9 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0
Tennessee 3.9 24.3 17.6 13.8 10.6 8.7 6.9 5.1 4.2 3.2 2.1 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.4
Auburn 4.6 17.6 15.8 13.1 11.0 9.4 7.8 6.4 5.3 4.4 3.4 2.4 1.7 1.1 0.5
Florida 5.1 12.6 12.5 12.6 11.5 10.4 9.1 8.2 6.4 5.3 4.4 3.2 1.8 1.2 0.7
Mississippi St. 5.3 12.1 12.4 12.3 11.1 9.9 8.7 8.3 6.7 5.8 4.4 3.2 2.6 1.7 0.9
Alabama 7.0 5.1 7.4 7.9 8.4 8.8 9.3 9.0 8.6 8.4 7.5 6.8 6.1 4.0 2.6
LSU 7.0 4.5 6.7 7.8 9.3 9.2 9.3 8.6 9.0 8.0 7.6 6.7 5.6 4.7 3.0
Missouri 7.1 4.6 6.0 8.0 8.6 9.1 8.8 9.2 9.0 8.4 8.1 6.8 6.1 4.3 3.0
South Carolina 7.9 2.9 4.3 6.0 7.0 7.5 8.3 8.6 9.0 9.2 9.0 9.0 8.1 6.7 4.3
Texas A&M 8.1 2.4 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.6 8.1 9.1 8.7 9.5 9.1 9.1 8.2 6.9 4.8
Georgia 9.6 1.1 1.7 2.9 3.7 4.9 6.0 6.6 7.7 9.1 9.8 11.5 11.9 12.6 10.5
Vanderbilt 9.9 0.9 1.6 2.4 2.9 4.1 5.0 6.2 7.5 8.6 10.3 11.2 12.6 13.8 12.8
Arkansas 9.6 0.7 2.0 2.5 3.6 4.8 5.9 7.3 7.9 9.0 9.9 10.7 11.6 12.5 11.7
Mississippi 10.9 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.9 2.6 3.3 4.0 5.4 7.0 9.2 10.6 13.4 17.4 22.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Kentucky 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.8 2.9 5.0 6.4 9.5 11.7 13.4 13.7 12.8 11.0 7.3 2.9
Tennessee 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.9 3.1 5.0 7.1 9.0 10.7 12.1 12.9 12.0 10.7 7.6 4.2 1.5
Auburn 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.7 3.1 5.1 6.3 8.7 10.0 11.9 12.3 11.2 10.8 8.6 5.2 2.6 0.9
Florida 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.4 2.1 4.0 6.1 8.0 10.0 12.2 12.2 12.4 10.7 8.7 5.7 3.8 1.6 0.4
Mississippi St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.9 4.6 6.3 8.4 10.1 11.4 12.1 11.6 9.9 8.9 5.8 3.5 1.3 0.4
Alabama 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.2 4.3 6.2 8.0 10.0 10.8 12.1 11.0 9.7 8.5 6.6 4.4 2.6 1.3 0.4 0.2
LSU 9 - 9 0.1 0.3 1.4 2.5 3.9 6.4 8.2 10.0 11.1 11.3 11.2 10.6 8.4 6.2 4.5 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1
Missouri 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.2 4.2 6.2 9.2 9.9 11.4 11.9 11.5 9.5 8.3 5.8 3.9 2.4 1.3 0.4 0.1
South Carolina 8 - 10 0.2 0.8 2.2 3.8 6.0 8.9 10.1 11.5 11.3 11.8 9.8 8.2 6.6 3.8 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1
Texas A&M 8 - 10 0.3 0.9 2.5 3.7 6.4 8.5 10.5 11.7 11.7 10.7 10.4 7.8 6.4 4.1 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
Georgia 7 - 11 0.7 2.7 4.9 8.1 10.9 11.9 12.3 11.3 10.2 8.7 6.8 5.0 2.9 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Vanderbilt 6 - 12 0.8 3.2 6.4 9.5 11.2 11.9 12.6 11.7 9.6 8.1 5.7 4.0 2.5 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Arkansas 7 - 11 0.9 2.6 5.4 8.5 10.2 11.8 11.9 11.7 10.8 8.7 6.9 4.4 3.0 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Mississippi 5 - 13 2.5 6.0 10.1 12.7 13.1 13.2 11.6 9.7 7.5 5.0 3.8 2.0 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Kentucky 35.9% 25.6 8.2 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 24.3% 16.3 6.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Auburn 17.6% 10.8 5.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Florida 12.6% 7.5 4.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Mississippi St. 12.1% 7.1 3.8 1.2 0.1 0.0
Alabama 5.1% 2.8 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
LSU 4.5% 2.4 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Missouri 4.6% 2.5 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
South Carolina 2.9% 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas A&M 2.4% 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia 1.1% 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0
Vanderbilt 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Arkansas 0.7% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Mississippi 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Kentucky 94.4% 23.9% 70.5% 1   29.2 19.5 13.5 9.2 6.8 5.1 3.7 2.9 1.7 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 92.6%
Tennessee 86.8% 16.3% 70.4% 2   15.7 15.2 12.3 9.6 8.6 7.4 5.1 4.4 3.3 2.5 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.2 84.2%
Auburn 81.6% 12.4% 69.2% 3   10.7 11.6 10.5 9.5 8.1 7.6 6.1 5.3 5.0 3.8 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.4 79.0%
Florida 73.6% 10.6% 63.0% 4   6.8 9.0 9.9 8.0 8.0 7.1 6.8 6.0 4.6 4.0 2.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 26.4 70.5%
Mississippi St. 76.2% 9.4% 66.8% 5   7.5 8.8 8.8 8.4 8.1 7.9 6.8 6.3 5.4 4.5 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 23.8 73.7%
Alabama 53.9% 5.1% 48.8% 8   2.3 3.6 4.5 4.9 5.2 5.6 6.0 6.5 6.2 4.6 3.4 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 46.1 51.4%
LSU 52.4% 4.2% 48.2% 8   1.7 2.8 4.3 5.2 6.4 7.0 5.7 5.8 4.6 4.2 3.4 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 47.6 50.3%
Missouri 42.8% 4.7% 38.2% 1.0 1.6 2.9 3.1 3.5 4.2 4.8 4.9 4.8 5.2 4.7 1.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 57.2 40.0%
South Carolina 37.5% 3.9% 33.6% 1.0 1.4 2.0 2.8 3.1 3.7 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.0 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 62.5 35.0%
Texas A&M 33.5% 3.2% 30.3% 0.6 0.9 1.6 2.2 2.6 3.0 4.1 4.0 4.5 4.6 3.9 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 66.5 31.3%
Georgia 19.4% 2.1% 17.4% 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.3 1.6 2.1 2.7 2.6 3.1 2.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 80.6 17.7%
Vanderbilt 17.9% 1.9% 16.1% 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.2 2.0 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 82.1 16.4%
Arkansas 16.7% 1.4% 15.3% 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.6 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 83.3 15.6%
Mississippi 10.3% 1.0% 9.3% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 89.7 9.4%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Kentucky 94.4% 0.9% 94.0% 80.6% 56.4% 36.3% 22.4% 12.7% 7.0%
Tennessee 86.8% 1.8% 85.9% 68.3% 43.6% 24.9% 13.3% 7.1% 3.6%
Auburn 81.6% 2.2% 80.6% 59.9% 34.8% 18.3% 9.2% 4.5% 2.0%
Florida 73.6% 2.3% 72.5% 52.2% 29.3% 15.4% 7.7% 3.7% 1.7%
Mississippi St. 76.2% 2.6% 74.8% 52.7% 27.2% 13.4% 6.5% 3.1% 1.5%
Alabama 53.9% 3.0% 52.2% 32.8% 14.4% 6.5% 3.0% 1.2% 0.6%
LSU 52.4% 3.3% 50.5% 30.4% 13.3% 5.8% 2.2% 0.8% 0.3%
Missouri 42.8% 5.4% 40.2% 23.1% 9.8% 4.2% 1.7% 0.7% 0.3%
South Carolina 37.5% 4.2% 35.3% 19.9% 8.2% 3.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Texas A&M 33.5% 4.0% 31.4% 17.0% 6.8% 2.6% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2%
Georgia 19.4% 3.2% 17.8% 8.7% 3.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Vanderbilt 17.9% 2.9% 16.4% 8.0% 2.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Arkansas 16.7% 3.0% 15.1% 7.3% 2.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Mississippi 10.3% 1.7% 9.5% 4.4% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 7.0 0.0 0.2 2.3 9.3 23.4 31.6 21.7 9.1 2.1 0.2 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 6.8 0.0 0.4 3.2 11.7 26.4 31.1 18.8 6.9 1.4 0.2 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 4.7 0.0 0.6 4.3 14.3 26.1 28.6 18.5 6.1 1.3 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 97.2% 2.5 2.8 15.9 31.1 30.7 15.0 4.0 0.5 0.0
Elite Eight 81.8% 1.3 18.2 41.6 29.6 9.3 1.3 0.1
Final Four 55.7% 0.7 44.3 43.1 11.5 1.1 0.0
Final Game 32.7% 0.4 67.3 30.3 2.4
Champion 17.5% 0.2 82.5 17.5