Preseason Rankings
Auburn
Southeastern
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.6#13
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace77.8#21
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+9.0#12
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#26
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.3% 2.4% 1.1%
#1 Seed 10.7% 11.1% 3.2%
Top 2 Seed 22.3% 43.7% 19.8%
Top 4 Seed 42.3% 43.7% 19.8%
Top 6 Seed 57.9% 43.7% 19.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 81.6% 83.0% 60.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 79.0% 80.5% 57.3%
Average Seed 4.9 4.8 6.4
.500 or above 93.3% 94.3% 78.5%
.500 or above in Conference 82.1% 83.1% 65.1%
Conference Champion 17.6% 18.3% 7.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 1.0% 3.5%
First Four2.2% 2.1% 3.6%
First Round80.6% 82.0% 58.7%
Second Round59.9% 61.2% 39.2%
Sweet Sixteen34.8% 35.7% 19.5%
Elite Eight18.3% 18.9% 8.0%
Final Four9.2% 9.5% 4.9%
Championship Game4.5% 4.7% 2.4%
National Champion2.0% 2.1% 0.7%

Next Game: South Alabama (Home) - 94.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2.7 - 4.42.7 - 4.4
Quad 1b2.9 - 1.95.6 - 6.3
Quad 25.7 - 1.911.3 - 8.2
Quad 35.5 - 0.716.8 - 8.8
Quad 44.2 - 0.121.0 - 9.0


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 150   South Alabama W 86-72 94%    
  Nov 09, 2018 42   Washington W 82-78 75%    
  Nov 19, 2018 44   Xavier W 85-80 66%    
  Nov 20, 2018 4   Duke L 81-85 37%    
  Nov 21, 2018 66   Arizona W 82-75 72%    
  Nov 28, 2018 178   St. Peter's W 76-61 95%    
  Dec 04, 2018 294   UNC Asheville W 89-67 98%    
  Dec 08, 2018 107   Dayton W 82-71 89%    
  Dec 15, 2018 187   UAB W 85-69 92%    
  Dec 19, 2018 38   @ North Carolina St. W 87-83 53%    
  Dec 22, 2018 151   Murray St. W 83-69 92%    
  Dec 29, 2018 213   North Florida W 99-81 96%    
  Jan 09, 2019 118   @ Mississippi W 87-76 76%    
  Jan 12, 2019 80   Georgia W 75-67 83%    
  Jan 16, 2019 64   @ Texas A&M W 81-75 60%    
  Jan 19, 2019 3   Kentucky L 79-83 47%    
  Jan 22, 2019 61   @ South Carolina W 79-73 59%    
  Jan 26, 2019 21   @ Mississippi St. W 78-77 44%    
  Jan 30, 2019 51   Missouri W 77-72 75%    
  Feb 02, 2019 39   Alabama W 79-75 73%    
  Feb 05, 2019 16   Florida W 77-76 63%    
  Feb 09, 2019 46   @ LSU W 83-78 56%    
  Feb 13, 2019 118   Mississippi W 87-76 87%    
  Feb 16, 2019 83   @ Vanderbilt W 81-72 67%    
  Feb 20, 2019 94   Arkansas W 86-76 85%    
  Feb 23, 2019 3   @ Kentucky L 79-83 29%    
  Feb 27, 2019 80   @ Georgia W 75-67 67%    
  Mar 02, 2019 21   Mississippi St. W 78-77 63%    
  Mar 05, 2019 39   @ Alabama W 79-75 54%    
  Mar 09, 2019 9   Tennessee L 75-77 55%    
Projected Record 21.0 - 9.0 11.4 - 6.6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.3 5.2 4.6 2.6 0.9 17.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 4.5 5.7 3.3 0.6 0.0 15.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.6 5.0 4.5 1.7 0.1 13.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 4.2 4.4 1.3 0.1 11.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.5 4.2 1.1 0.0 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.2 2.4 3.6 1.6 0.1 7.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 3.5 1.4 0.2 6.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.5 1.8 0.2 5.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.9 0.4 0.0 4.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 0.5 0.0 3.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.0 1.7 12th
13th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.7 3.1 5.1 6.3 8.7 10.0 11.9 12.3 11.2 10.8 8.6 5.2 2.6 0.9 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 99.4% 2.6    2.3 0.2
16-2 89.1% 4.6    3.5 1.1 0.0
15-3 60.6% 5.2    3.0 2.0 0.2 0.0
14-4 30.8% 3.3    1.0 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.2% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.6% 17.6 10.8 5.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 100.0% 42.3% 57.7% 1.1 0.8 0.1 100.0%
17-1 2.6% 100.0% 37.1% 62.9% 1.3 1.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 5.2% 100.0% 32.1% 67.9% 1.6 2.8 1.9 0.4 0.0 100.0%
15-3 8.6% 100.0% 24.1% 75.9% 2.1 3.0 3.2 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 10.8% 100.0% 18.6% 81.4% 2.7 1.7 3.5 3.3 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 11.2% 100.0% 13.2% 86.8% 3.8 0.4 1.8 3.0 2.9 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 12.3% 99.2% 11.8% 87.4% 5.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.9 2.6 2.3 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.1%
11-7 11.9% 96.0% 8.1% 87.9% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.9 2.4 2.1 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.5 95.7%
10-8 10.0% 89.3% 5.6% 83.7% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.1 88.7%
9-9 8.7% 72.0% 4.8% 67.2% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.4 70.6%
8-10 6.3% 38.8% 3.9% 34.9% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9 36.3%
7-11 5.1% 18.6% 2.3% 16.4% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 16.7%
6-12 3.1% 5.6% 1.9% 3.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 3.7%
5-13 1.7% 3.3% 2.5% 0.8% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.8%
4-14 1.0% 1.5% 1.5% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.2% 5.7% 5.7% 15.0 0.0 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 81.6% 12.4% 69.2% 4.9 10.7 11.6 10.5 9.5 8.1 7.6 6.1 5.3 5.0 3.8 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.4 79.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 87.7 12.3